![Patrick Minford](https://profiles-cardiff.imgix.net/attachments/1354?w=200&h=200&auto=format&crop=faces&fit=crop&q=90")
Professor Patrick Minford
- Available for postgraduate supervision
Teams and roles for Patrick Minford
Professor of Applied Economics
Overview
My research interests are in macroeconomic and trade modelling and in macroeconomic policy. I teach macroeconomics to MSc and PhD students. You can find details of my activities on my web page
Publication
2025
- Chen, H. et al. 2025. UK monetary policy in an estimated dsge model with state-dependent price and wage contracts. Journal of International Money and Finance 157 103390. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103390)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2025. Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 101 102142. (10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2025. UK monetary and fiscal policy since the great recession - an evaluation. Applied Economics 57 (48), pp.7809-7837. (10.1080/00036846.2024.2393897)
- Liu, C. , Minford, P. and Ou, Z. 2025. Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post-Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model. International Journal of Finance and Economics 30 (1), pp.983-1006. (10.1002/ijfe.2955)
- Minford, P. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2025. Testing for consumer risk-pooling in the open economy - further results. Open Economies Review 36 , pp.901-920. (10.1007/s11079-024-09782-5)
2024
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2024. The role of fiscal policy — A survey of recent empirical findings. Open Economies Review 35 , pp.985-998. (10.1007/s11079-024-09759-4)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2024. Indirect inference and small sample bias — Some recent results. Open Economies Review 35 , pp.245-259. (10.1007/s11079-023-09731-8)
- Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2024. Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications. Theoretical Economics Letters 14 , pp.536-542. (10.4236/tel.2024.142028)
- Minford, P. and Zhu, Z. 2024. Modeling the effects of Brexit on the British economy. Journal of Forecasting 43 (4), pp.1114-1126. (10.1002/for.3076)
2023
- Chou, P. , Cao, Y. and Minford, P. 2023. Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework. Journal of Forecasting 42 (3), pp.530-542. (10.1002/for.2950)
- Dong, X. et al., 2023. Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 88 101845. (10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101845)
- Easaw, J. , Minford, A. and Yu, C. J. 2023. "Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation",. Economic Modelling 118 106076. (10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106076)
- Lyu, J. et al., 2023. UK monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model with financial frictions. Journal of International Money and Finance 130 102750. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102750)
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2023. A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: what do four waves of Covid tell us?. Applied Economics 55 (37), pp.4348-4358. (10.1080/00036846.2022.2128295)
- Minford, A. , Xu, Y. and Xue, D. 2023. Testing competing world trade models against the facts of world trade. Journal of International Money and Finance 138 102940. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102940)
- Oyekola, O. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2023. Global shocks in the US economy: effects on output and the real exchange rate. Open Economies Review 34 , pp.411-435. (10.1007/s11079-022-09680-8)
2022
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2022. Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 80 101640. (10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101640)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, P. and Wickens, M. R. 2022. The macroeconomic controversy over price rigidity - how to resolve it and how Bayesian estimation has led us astray. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.617-630. (10.1007/s11079-021-09658-y)
- Minford, P. , Gai, Y. and Meenagh, D. 2022. North and South: A regional model of the UK. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.565-616. (10.1007/s11079-021-09633-7)
- Minford, P. et al. 2022. The eurozone: what is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?. Journal of Financial Stability 63 101064. (10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101064)
- Minford, P. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2022. Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.109-120. (10.1007/s11079-021-09622-w)
- Zhao, Z. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2022. Should Hong Kong switch to Taylor rule?—Evidence from DSGE model. Applied Economics 54 (50), pp.5851-5872. (10.1080/00036846.2022.2053655)
2021
- Chen, G. et al. 2021. Computable general equilibrium models of trade in the modern trade policy debate. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.171-309. (10.1007/s11079-021-09631-9)
- Chou, J. , Easaw, J. and Minford, A. 2021. Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation.
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2021. China’s market economy, shadow banking and the frequency of growth slowdown. Manchester School 89 (5), pp.420-444. (10.1111/manc.12318)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2021. Shadow banks, banking policies and China's macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of International Money and Finance 116 102415. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102415)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. 2021. State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword. Working paper. Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2021. State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword: a new role for monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 102496. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102496)
- Lyu, J. et al. 2021. Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: has the pendulum swung too far?. Working paper. Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
- Lyu, J. et al. 2021. Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: has the pendulum swung too far?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 74 101381. (10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101381)
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2021. A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour. Applied Economics 53 (30), pp.3515-3534. (10.1080/00036846.2021.1883531)
- Minford, A. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2021. Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk-pooling match the facts?. International Journal of Finance and Economics 26 (2), pp.1993-2021. (10.1002/ijfe.1890)
- Yang, X. , Minford, P. and Meenagh, D. 2021. Inequality and economic growth in the UK. Open Economies Review 32 , pp.37-69. (10.1007/s11079-020-09598-z)
2020
- Gai, Y. , Minford, P. and Ou, Z. 2020. Is housing collateral important to the business cycle? Evidence from China. Journal of International Money and Finance 109 102216. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102216)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2020. News and why it is not shocking: the role of micro-foundations. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 66 101199. (10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101199)
- Minford, P. , Wang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2020. Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference. Applied Economics 52 (7), pp.726-741. (10.1080/00036846.2019.1648748)
2019
- Dong, X. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 94 , pp.62-80. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.012)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — making bricks with little straw. Energy Economics 81 , pp.503-518. (10.1016/j.eneco.2019.04.011)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2019. Testing DSGE models by indirect inference: a survey of recent findings. Open Economies Review 30 (3), pp.593-620. (10.1007/s11079-019-09526-w)
- Minford, P. 2019. The effects of Brexit on the UK economy. World Economy 42 (1), pp.57-67. (10.1111/twec.12771)
- Minford, P. , Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2019. Testing part of a DSGE model by indirect inference. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 81 (1), pp.178-194. (10.1111/obes.12253)
2018
- Aminu, N. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data. Energy Economics 71 , pp.14-34. (10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.030)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. Financial stability: to regulate or not? A public choice inquiry. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 57 , pp.127-140. (10.1016/j.intfin.2018.07.004)
- Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2018. Classical or gravity? which trade model best matches the UK facts?. Open Economies Review 29 (3), pp.579-611. (10.1007/s11079-017-9470-z)
2017
- Chen, X. et al., 2017. Who provides the capital for Chinese growth: the public or the private sector?. Applied Economics 49 (23), pp.2238-2252. (10.1080/00036846.2016.1234704)
- Le, V. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. 2017. Tracing the causes of the banking crisis. Applied Economics (10.1080/00036846.2017.1282145)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2017. A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 76 , pp.202-210. (10.1016/j.jedc.2017.01.009)
2016
- Fan, J. , Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2016. The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation. Economic Modelling 58 , pp.203-218. (10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.027)
- Hatcher, M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2016. Stabilisation policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 30 (2), pp.327-355. (10.1111/joes.12096)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2016. Testing macro models by indirect inference: a survey for users. Open Economies Review 27 (1), pp.1-38. (10.1007/s11079-015-9377-5)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2016. Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of quantitative easing. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 44 , pp.85-102. (10.1016/j.intfin.2016.04.011)
- Minford, A. , Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2016. Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models. Economics Letters 145 , pp.157-161. (10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.016)
- Patrick, M. 2016. Testing macro models for policy use - An insurrection in applied modelling. The Manchester School 84 (S1), pp.42-55. (10.1111/manc.12164)
2015
- Li, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Zhou, P. 2015. A DSGE model of China. Applied Economics 47 (59), pp.6438-6460. (10.1080/00036846.2015.1071477)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Ou, Z. and Wickens, M. 2015. Revisiting the Great Moderation: policy or luck?. Open Economies Review 26 (2), pp.197-223. (10.1007/s11079-014-9319-7)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2015. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Italian Economic Journal 1 (3), pp.333-351. (10.1007/s40797-015-0020-9)
- Minford, P. et al. 2015. Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2nd edition). United Kingdom: Edward Elgar. (10.4337/9781785360336)
- Minford, P. and Srinivasan, N. 2015. Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 4 (1), pp.43-61. (10.1177/2277978715574615)
2014
- Le, V. P. M. et al., 2014. Banking and the macroeconomy in China: A banking crisis deferred?. Open Economies Review 25 (1), pp.123-161. (10.1007/s11079-013-9301-9)
- Liu, C. and Minford, A. P. L. 2014. Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy. Economic Modelling 43 , pp.407-415. (10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.013)
- Liu, C. and Minford, P. 2014. How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 41 , pp.119-134. (10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.017)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2014. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
2013
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2013. What causes banking crises? an empirical investigation for the world economy. Open Economies Review 24 (4), pp.581-611. (10.1007/s11079-013-9274-8)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2013. The financial sector, the banks and the British economy - markets, money and mistaken regulation. In: Lawlor, S. ed. The Financial Sector and the UK Economy: The Danger of Over-Regulation. Politeia Series Vol. 86.London: Politeia. , pp.14-23.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2013. Taylor rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982. Economic Modelling 32 , pp.113-123. (10.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.029)
2012
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. P. L. 2012. Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy. Rivista Italiana degli Economisti 17 (2), pp.191-224. (10.1427/37494)
2011
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2011. How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (12), pp.2078-2104. (10.1016/j.jedc.2011.08.009)
- Le, V. P. M. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2011. Measuring the extent and costs of EU protectionism. In: Jovanovic, M. N. ed. International handbook on the economics of integration: factor mobility, agriculture, environment and quantitative studies. Vol. 3, Elgar Original Reference Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. , pp.316-342.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2011. Taylor, Lance: Maynard's revenge. The collapse of free market macroeconomics - 400 pp, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., London, 2011, Hardback, £ 29.95 [Book Review]. Journal of Economics 103 (3), pp.289-291. (10.1007/s00712-011-0216-x)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A role for money after all?. International Finance 14 (2), pp.211-229.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models. Economics Letters 112 (3), pp.247-249. (10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.014)
2010
- Le, V. P. M. , Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2010. The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?. Economic Modelling 27 (6), pp.1417-1428. (10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.016)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2010. Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?. Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (6), pp.1131-1150. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.006)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis : a rational interpretation. Political Studies Review 8 (1), pp.40-54. (10.1111/j.1478-9302.2009.00205.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis - were markets working?. Irish Studies in International Affairs 21 (1), pp.29-41. (10.3318/ISIA.2010.21.29)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. CESifo Economic Studies 56 (4), pp.554-574. (10.1093/cesifo/ifq016)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Le, M. and Nowell, E. 2010. Measuring the economic costs and benefits of EU membership. In: Baimbridge, M. , Whyman, P. B. and Burkitt, B. eds. Britain in a Global World : Options for a New Beginning. Exeter: Imprint Academic. , pp.65-76.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2010. Vicious and virtuous circles - the political economy of unemployment. South African Journal of Economics 78 (1), pp.1-22. (10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01235.x)
2009
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2009. Two orthogonal continents? Testing a two-country DSGE model of the US and the EU using indirect inference. Open Economies Review 21 (1), pp.23-44. (10.1007/s11079-009-9141-9)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2009. Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?. Economic Modelling 26 (5), pp.978-992. (10.1016/j.econmod.2009.03.004)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2009. Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference. Open Economies Review 20 (4), pp.435-471. (10.1007/s11079-009-9107-y)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2009. Monetary policy and the credit crunch. Economic Affairs 29 (1), pp.89-91. (10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009.01876.x)
- Vo Phuong, M. L. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2009. European economic policy: protectionism as an elite strategy. In: Gamble, A. and Lane, D. eds. The European Union and World Politics: Consensus and Division. Palgrave Macmillan. , pp.217-234.
2008
- Lungu, L. , Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution. Economic Modelling 25 (2), pp.255-273. (10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.001)
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2008. Vicious and virtuous circles - The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA. European Journal of Political Economy 24 (3), pp.605-614. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.04.005)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Dealing with a capitalist paroxysm. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Evaluating monetary policy during the credit crunch. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (4), pp.21-23.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Oil price boom compound credit crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (2), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Panic and US rate cuts. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. The financial crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Why the United Kingdom should not join the Eurozone. International Finance 11 (3), pp.283-295. (10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.01225.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Le, V. 2008. Inflation and the attitudes of Central Banks in emerging markets countries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 , pp.23-27.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2008. Are central bank preferences asymmetric? A comment. Economic Notes 37 (1), pp.119-126. (10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00191.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Theodoridis, K. and Meenagh, D. 2008. Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference. Open Economies Review 20 (2), pp.265-291. (10.1007/s11079-008-9085-5)
2007
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. A. 2007. Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes-a new test of market efficiency. Economics Letters 94 (2), pp.235-239. (10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.036)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Is the US heading for a slowdown or even a recession? [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter (3)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Opinion wavering between resurgent inflation and imminent recession [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter (3)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2007. On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets. Open Economies Review 18 (1), pp.119-125. (10.1007/s11079-007-9002-3)
2006
- Le, V. P. M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Joining the European Monetary Union - Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models. Open Economies Review 17 (3), pp.281-296. (10.1007/s11079-006-9050-0)
- Lungu, L. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Explaining the equity risk premium. The Manchester School 74 (6), pp.670-700. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00522.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. An agenda for tax reform. London: Centre for Policy Studies.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Commodity turbulence and inflation. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Competitiveness in a globalised world: a commentary. Journal of International Business Studies 37 (2), pp.176-178. (10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400191)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Delphic oracle or rule-book transparency?. Liverpool Investment Letter 27 (1), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey – again. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Hammered by foot and mouth. Liverpool Investment Letter 4 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation jitters wreck the markets in bonds and equities. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation, unemployment and the pound. In: Roy, S. and Clarke, J. eds. Margaret Thatcher's Revolution: How it Happened and What it Mean (revised ed.). London: Continuum. , pp.50-66.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Measuring the Economic Costs and Benefits of the EU. Open Economies Review 17 (4-5), pp.509-524. (10.1007/s11079-006-0362-x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Oil and other commodity turbulence. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Optimal monetary policy with endogenous contracts: is there a case for price-level targeting and money supply control?. In: Matthews, K. G. P. and Booth, P. M. eds. Issues in Monetary Policy: The Relationship Between Money and the Financial Markets. Chichester: Wiley. , pp.63-80.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The Budget. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises as oil prices fall. Quarterly Economic Bulletin , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?. National Institute Economic Review 196 (1), pp.92-106. (10.1177/0027950106067050)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Will housing bubble collapse?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Wobbles in the equity markets. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Meenagh, D. and Wong, J. 2006. Testing a simple structural model of endogenous growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (3), pp.19-26.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2006. Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization. Journal of Economics and Business 58 (5-6), pp.366-372. (10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.06.006)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Let market forces work. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4 (1), pp.3-11.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Plenty of opportunities available. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4 (2), pp.3-11.
2005
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. A world awash with money. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Agenda for a reforming government. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (3), pp.19-24.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Britain's relationship with the European Union. In: Harris, P. and Booth, P. eds. Towards a Liberal Utopia?. London: Institute of Economic Affairs. , pp.119-127.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Inflation scares. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Mr Brown and his fiscal promises. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Recent monetary experience and its new implications. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (4), pp.26-28.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The dollar equilibrium. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The peculiar matter of the crisis that fails to arrive. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's economy loses momentum. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's growth is under threat. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Whither the MPC?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. World business cycle on track. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Mahambare, V. and Nowell, E. 2005. Should Britain leave the EU?: an economic analysis of a troubled relationship. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2005. The observational equivalence of the Taylor Rule and Taylor-type rules. In: Pelzer, L. Z. ed. Trends in Macroeconomic Research. New York: Nova Science Publisher. , pp.1-14.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2005. It's not all roses on Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 3 (2), pp.3-11.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Webb, B. D. 2005. Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML - some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits. Economic Modelling 22 (1), pp.187-205. (10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.002)
2004
- Mahambre, V. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2004. Evaluating European trading agreements. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (2), pp.16-20.
- Mayer, T. and Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Monetarism: A retrospective. World Economics 5 (2), pp.147-185.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Britain, the Euro and the five tests. Cato Journal 24 (1-2), pp.75-87.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Gordon Brown and the UK economy. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Is the dollar about to turn?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Middle period recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter 11 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Oil prices and inflation. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Reactions to the diving dollar. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar and the world economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar conundrum. Liverpool Investment Letter 25 (4), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar turns. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The enigma of Japan. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The return of inflation – no. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The World Economy – worried about world growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Meenagh, D. and Webb, B. D. 2004. Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability. The World Economy 27 (3), pp.301-358. (10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00602.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Nowell, E. and Mahambre, V. 2004. Introduction, summary and conclusions. Why the UK should renegotiate or leave the EU. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (3), pp.24-32.
2003
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Is the UK housing market bubble collapsing?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Politics and the future of the UK economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post mortem – yes, The US did recover!. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Steady as she goes but the European disease is serious. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Supply-side economics. In: Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. R. eds. An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics. Elgar Original Reference Chichester: Edward Elgar. , pp.679-689.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The economic consequences of EU membership: a stock-taking. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (3), pp.17-21.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The public sector and its travails. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (1), pp.23-26.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. They come in threes. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Nowell, E. and Webb, B. D. 2003. Nominal Contracting and Monetary Targets - Drifting into Indexation. The Economic Journal 113 (484), pp.65-100. (10.1111/1468-0297.00085)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2003. Optimal monetary policy: is price-level targeting the next step?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 50 (5), pp.650-667. (10.1111/j.0036-9292.2003.05005005.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2003. How different are money supply rules from Taylor rules?. Indian Economic Review 38 (2), pp.157-166.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. A new dawn for Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect , pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. Focus, distinctive competence and cost leadership can spell success. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2 (1), pp.3-10.
2002
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Endlessly taking the US pulse. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Gloom prevails. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Recovery proceeding. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor’s five tests examined. Other. London: Institute of Economic Affairs.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Supply-side worries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (3), pp.18-20.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Tactics in recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The economy after the budget - still strong. Market Monitor , pp.III-IV.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The end of new Labour and the Conservative opportunity. Forward May , pp.4-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The Global outlook - still adding up to recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery in now plainly in view. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (1), pp.3-9.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The United States - as the Bears close in. Current Economics , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (2), pp.3-9.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. and David, P. 2002. Advanced macroeconomics - a primer. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinvasan, N. 2002. Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?. Economics Letters 76 (1), pp.145-150. (10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00034-4)
2001
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a world recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter 2 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a World Recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (1), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Careless talk of Global Slump. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (4), pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. How serious is the present situation in Japan?. Liverpool Investment Letter 3 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Inflation worries again. Liverpool Investment Letter 6 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Is Wim so Dim? Why the US is in no real trouble and why Europe needs cooling off. Liverpool Investment Letter 5 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Living through the aftermath of September 11. Liverpool Investment Letter 11 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic aside, the world economy is holding up. Liverpool Investment Letter 8 , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic USA. Liverpool Investment Letter 1 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Smoothing out manufacturing excesses. Liverpool Investment Letter 9 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Liverpool Investment Letter 10 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (3), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The world economy muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter 7 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Entrepreneurs wanted: Merseyside business prospect. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 15 (2), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Grounds for optimism. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 16 (1), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Merseyside needs to maintain momentum. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2 (2), pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. The UK and with it Cheshire and North Wales are on a good wicket but will Labour's re-regulation ruin it?. North Wales and Cheshire Business Prospect 7 (1), pp.3-10.
2000
- Minford, A. P. L. 2000. A story of monetary mismanagement. In: Thorpe, R. and Little, S. eds. Global Change: The Impact of Asia in the 21st Century. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. , pp.26-35.
- Minford, P. and Stoney, P. 2000. North Wales is thriving in a service-led economy. Welsh Economic Review 12 (1), pp.20-23. (10.18573/wer.148)
1996
- Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1996. British inflation and unemployment in the 1970s: a model-based decomposition. Applied Economics 28 (1), pp.103-115. (10.1080/00036849600000013)
1994
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. An algorithm for the solution of non-linear forward rational expectations models with current partial information. Economic Modelling 11 (3), pp.351-358. (10.1016/0264-9993(94)90010-8)
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. Quarterly liverpool model with current partial information: An exercise in forecasting. Journal of Forecasting 13 (6), pp.507-518. (10.1002/for.3980130603)
1984
- Minford, A. P. L. et al. 1984. The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom. Economic Modelling 1 (1), pp.24-62. (10.1016/0264-9993(84)90010-5)
1980
- Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1980. Private sector expenditure and financial asset accumulation in the U.K.. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12 (4), pp.644-653.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Brech, M. and Matthews, K. G. P. 1980. A rational expectations model of the U.K. under floating exchange rates. European Economic Review 14 (2), pp.189-219. (10.1016/0014-2921(80)90018-5)
1979
- Minford, A. P. L. , Matthews, K. G. P. and Marwaha, S. 1979. Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations. Economics Letters 4 (2), pp.117-120. (10.1016/0165-1765(79)90219-2)
Articles
- Aminu, N. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. The role of energy prices in the Great Recession — A two-sector model with unfiltered data. Energy Economics 71 , pp.14-34. (10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.030)
- Chen, G. et al. 2021. Computable general equilibrium models of trade in the modern trade policy debate. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.171-309. (10.1007/s11079-021-09631-9)
- Chen, H. et al. 2025. UK monetary policy in an estimated dsge model with state-dependent price and wage contracts. Journal of International Money and Finance 157 103390. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2025.103390)
- Chen, X. et al., 2017. Who provides the capital for Chinese growth: the public or the private sector?. Applied Economics 49 (23), pp.2238-2252. (10.1080/00036846.2016.1234704)
- Chou, P. , Cao, Y. and Minford, P. 2023. Evaluation and indirect inference estimation of inattentive features in a New Keynesian framework. Journal of Forecasting 42 (3), pp.530-542. (10.1002/for.2950)
- Dong, X. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. How important are the international financial market imperfections for the foreign exchange rate dynamics: A study of the sterling exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 94 , pp.62-80. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.02.012)
- Dong, X. et al., 2023. Bounded rational expectation: How it can affect the effectiveness of monetary rules in the open economy. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 88 101845. (10.1016/j.intfin.2023.101845)
- Easaw, J. , Minford, A. and Yu, C. J. 2023. "Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation",. Economic Modelling 118 106076. (10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106076)
- Fan, J. , Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2016. The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation. Economic Modelling 58 , pp.203-218. (10.1016/j.econmod.2016.05.027)
- Gai, Y. , Minford, P. and Ou, Z. 2020. Is housing collateral important to the business cycle? Evidence from China. Journal of International Money and Finance 109 102216. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102216)
- Hatcher, M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2016. Stabilisation policy, rational expectations and price-level versus inflation targeting: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 30 (2), pp.327-355. (10.1111/joes.12096)
- Le, V. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. 2017. Tracing the causes of the banking crisis. Applied Economics (10.1080/00036846.2017.1282145)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2021. China’s market economy, shadow banking and the frequency of growth slowdown. Manchester School 89 (5), pp.420-444. (10.1111/manc.12318)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2022. Regulatory arbitrage, shadow banking and monetary policy in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 80 101640. (10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101640)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2021. Shadow banks, banking policies and China's macroeconomic fluctuations. Journal of International Money and Finance 116 102415. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102415)
- Le, V. P. M. et al., 2014. Banking and the macroeconomy in China: A banking crisis deferred?. Open Economies Review 25 (1), pp.123-161. (10.1007/s11079-013-9301-9)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2017. A Monte Carlo procedure for checking identification in DSGE models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 76 , pp.202-210. (10.1016/j.jedc.2017.01.009)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2011. How much nominal rigidity is there in the US economy? Testing a new Keynesian DSGE model using indirect inference. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 35 (12), pp.2078-2104. (10.1016/j.jedc.2011.08.009)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2016. Testing macro models by indirect inference: a survey for users. Open Economies Review 27 (1), pp.1-38. (10.1007/s11079-015-9377-5)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2009. Two orthogonal continents? Testing a two-country DSGE model of the US and the EU using indirect inference. Open Economies Review 21 (1), pp.23-44. (10.1007/s11079-009-9141-9)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2013. What causes banking crises? an empirical investigation for the world economy. Open Economies Review 24 (4), pp.581-611. (10.1007/s11079-013-9274-8)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2019. A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — making bricks with little straw. Energy Economics 81 , pp.503-518. (10.1016/j.eneco.2019.04.011)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2025. Could an economy get stuck on a rational pessimism sunspot path? The case of Japan. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 101 102142. (10.1016/j.intfin.2025.102142)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2018. Financial stability: to regulate or not? A public choice inquiry. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 57 , pp.127-140. (10.1016/j.intfin.2018.07.004)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2016. Monetarism rides again? US monetary policy in a world of quantitative easing. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 44 , pp.85-102. (10.1016/j.intfin.2016.04.011)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2020. News and why it is not shocking: the role of micro-foundations. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 66 101199. (10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101199)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2021. State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword: a new role for monetary policy. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 102496. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102496)
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2024. The role of fiscal policy — A survey of recent empirical findings. Open Economies Review 35 , pp.985-998. (10.1007/s11079-024-09759-4)
- Le, V. P. M. et al. 2025. UK monetary and fiscal policy since the great recession - an evaluation. Applied Economics 57 (48), pp.7809-7837. (10.1080/00036846.2024.2393897)
- Le, V. P. M. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Joining the European Monetary Union - Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models. Open Economies Review 17 (3), pp.281-296. (10.1007/s11079-006-9050-0)
- Le, V. P. M. , Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2010. The 'Puzzles' methodology: En route to Indirect Inference?. Economic Modelling 27 (6), pp.1417-1428. (10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.016)
- Li, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Zhou, P. 2015. A DSGE model of China. Applied Economics 47 (59), pp.6438-6460. (10.1080/00036846.2015.1071477)
- Liu, C. and Minford, A. P. L. 2014. Comparing behavioural and rational expectations for the US post-war economy. Economic Modelling 43 , pp.407-415. (10.1016/j.econmod.2014.09.013)
- Liu, C. and Minford, P. 2014. How important is the credit channel? An empirical study of the US banking crisis. Journal of Banking and Finance 41 , pp.119-134. (10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.017)
- Liu, C. , Minford, P. and Ou, Z. 2025. Can Modern Monetary Theory fit the post-Crisis US facts? Evidence from a full DSGE model. International Journal of Finance and Economics 30 (1), pp.983-1006. (10.1002/ijfe.2955)
- Lungu, L. , Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Partial current information and signal extraction in a rational expectations macroeconomic model: A computational solution. Economic Modelling 25 (2), pp.255-273. (10.1016/j.econmod.2007.06.001)
- Lungu, L. and Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Explaining the equity risk premium. The Manchester School 74 (6), pp.670-700. (10.1111/j.1467-9957.2006.00522.x)
- Lyu, J. et al. 2021. Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: has the pendulum swung too far?. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 74 101381. (10.1016/j.intfin.2021.101381)
- Lyu, J. et al., 2023. UK monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model with financial frictions. Journal of International Money and Finance 130 102750. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102750)
- Mahambre, V. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2004. Evaluating European trading agreements. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (2), pp.16-20.
- Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1996. British inflation and unemployment in the 1970s: a model-based decomposition. Applied Economics 28 (1), pp.103-115. (10.1080/00036849600000013)
- Matthews, K. G. P. and Minford, A. P. L. 1980. Private sector expenditure and financial asset accumulation in the U.K.. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 12 (4), pp.644-653.
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. An algorithm for the solution of non-linear forward rational expectations models with current partial information. Economic Modelling 11 (3), pp.351-358. (10.1016/0264-9993(94)90010-8)
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Blackman, S. C. 1994. Quarterly liverpool model with current partial information: An exercise in forecasting. Journal of Forecasting 13 (6), pp.507-518. (10.1002/for.3980130603)
- Matthews, K. G. P. , Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2008. Vicious and virtuous circles - The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA. European Journal of Political Economy 24 (3), pp.605-614. (10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.04.005)
- Mayer, T. and Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Monetarism: A retrospective. World Economics 5 (2), pp.147-185.
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2024. Indirect inference and small sample bias — Some recent results. Open Economies Review 35 , pp.245-259. (10.1007/s11079-023-09731-8)
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. P. L. 2012. Non Stationary Shocks, Crises and Policy. Rivista Italiana degli Economisti 17 (2), pp.191-224. (10.1427/37494)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2010. Can a real business cycle model without price and wage stickiness explain UK real exchange rate behaviour?. Journal of International Money and Finance 29 (6), pp.1131-1150. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2010.02.006)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2009. Can the facts of UK inflation persistence be explained by nominal rigidity?. Economic Modelling 26 (5), pp.978-992. (10.1016/j.econmod.2009.03.004)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. A. 2007. Simulating Stock Returns under switching regimes-a new test of market efficiency. Economics Letters 94 (2), pp.235-239. (10.1016/j.econlet.2006.06.036)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, A. P. L. and Wickens, M. 2009. Testing a DSGE Model of the EU Using Indirect Inference. Open Economies Review 20 (4), pp.435-471. (10.1007/s11079-009-9107-y)
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2021. A structural model of coronavirus behaviour for testing on data behaviour. Applied Economics 53 (30), pp.3515-3534. (10.1080/00036846.2021.1883531)
- Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2023. A structural model of coronavirus behaviour: what do four waves of Covid tell us?. Applied Economics 55 (37), pp.4348-4358. (10.1080/00036846.2022.2128295)
- Meenagh, D. et al. 2019. Testing DSGE models by indirect inference: a survey of recent findings. Open Economies Review 30 (3), pp.593-620. (10.1007/s11079-019-09526-w)
- Meenagh, D. , Minford, P. and Wickens, M. R. 2022. The macroeconomic controversy over price rigidity - how to resolve it and how Bayesian estimation has led us astray. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.617-630. (10.1007/s11079-021-09658-y)
- Minford, A. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2021. Can a small New Keynesian model of the world economy with risk-pooling match the facts?. International Journal of Finance and Economics 26 (2), pp.1993-2021. (10.1002/ijfe.1890)
- Minford, A. , Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2016. Comparing different data descriptors in Indirect Inference tests on DSGE models. Economics Letters 145 , pp.157-161. (10.1016/j.econlet.2016.06.016)
- Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2018. Classical or gravity? which trade model best matches the UK facts?. Open Economies Review 29 (3), pp.579-611. (10.1007/s11079-017-9470-z)
- Minford, A. and Xu, Y. 2024. Indirect Inference- a methodological essay on its role and applications. Theoretical Economics Letters 14 , pp.536-542. (10.4236/tel.2024.142028)
- Minford, A. , Xu, Y. and Xue, D. 2023. Testing competing world trade models against the facts of world trade. Journal of International Money and Finance 138 102940. (10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102940)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. A world awash with money. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Agenda for a reforming government. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (3), pp.19-24.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a world recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter 2 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Are we on the brink of a World Recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (1), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Britain, the Euro and the five tests. Cato Journal 24 (1-2), pp.75-87.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Careless talk of Global Slump. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (4), pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Commodity turbulence and inflation. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Competitiveness in a globalised world: a commentary. Journal of International Business Studies 37 (2), pp.176-178. (10.1057/palgrave.jibs.8400191)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Dealing with a capitalist paroxysm. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Delphic oracle or rule-book transparency?. Liverpool Investment Letter 27 (1), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Doomsters cheated of their prey – again. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Endlessly taking the US pulse. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Evaluating monetary policy during the credit crunch. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (4), pp.21-23.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Gloom prevails. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Gordon Brown and the UK economy. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Hammered by foot and mouth. Liverpool Investment Letter 4 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. How serious is the present situation in Japan?. Liverpool Investment Letter 3 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation jitters wreck the markets in bonds and equities. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Inflation scares. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Inflation worries again. Liverpool Investment Letter 6 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Is the dollar about to turn?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Is the UK going into recession?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Is the UK housing market bubble collapsing?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Is the US heading for a slowdown or even a recession? [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter (3)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Is Wim so Dim? Why the US is in no real trouble and why Europe needs cooling off. Liverpool Investment Letter 5 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Living through the aftermath of September 11. Liverpool Investment Letter 11 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Measuring the Economic Costs and Benefits of the EU. Open Economies Review 17 (4-5), pp.509-524. (10.1007/s11079-006-0362-x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Middle period recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter 11 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2009. Monetary policy and the credit crunch. Economic Affairs 29 (1), pp.89-91. (10.1111/j.1468-0270.2009.01876.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Mr Brown and his fiscal promises. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Oil and other commodity turbulence. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Oil price boom compound credit crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (2), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Oil prices and inflation. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2007. Opinion wavering between resurgent inflation and imminent recession [Editorial]. Liverpool Investment Letter (3)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Panic and US rate cuts. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic aside, the world economy is holding up. Liverpool Investment Letter 8 , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Panic USA. Liverpool Investment Letter 1 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Politics and the future of the UK economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post mortem – yes, The US did recover!. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Post-Iraq recovery still on track in spite of short-term weakness. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. Reactions to the diving dollar. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Recent monetary experience and its new implications. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (4), pp.26-28.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Recovery proceeding. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. Smoothing out manufacturing excesses. Liverpool Investment Letter 9 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Steady as she goes but the European disease is serious. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Supply-side worries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (3), pp.18-20.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Tactics in recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2011. Taylor, Lance: Maynard's revenge. The collapse of free market macroeconomics - 400 pp, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., London, 2011, Hardback, £ 29.95 [Book Review]. Journal of Economics 103 (3), pp.289-291. (10.1007/s00712-011-0216-x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Liverpool Investment Letter 10 , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The aftermath of tragedy - uncertainty huge but recovery still the best bet. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 22 (3), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis : a rational interpretation. Political Studies Review 8 (1), pp.40-54. (10.1111/j.1478-9302.2009.00205.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis - were markets working?. Irish Studies in International Affairs 21 (1), pp.29-41. (10.3318/ISIA.2010.21.29)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2010. The banking crisis as dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. CESifo Economic Studies 56 (4), pp.554-574. (10.1093/cesifo/ifq016)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The Budget. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The club in the closet: understanding central banks. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar and the world economy. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar conundrum. Liverpool Investment Letter 25 (4), pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The dollar equilibrium. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The dollar turns. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The economic consequences of EU membership: a stock-taking. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (3), pp.17-21.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The economy after the budget - still strong. Market Monitor , pp.III-IV.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The end of new Labour and the Conservative opportunity. Forward May , pp.4-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The enigma of Japan. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. The financial crisis. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 (4), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The Global outlook - still adding up to recovery. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The peculiar matter of the crisis that fails to arrive. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The public sector and its travails. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (1), pp.23-26.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery in now plainly in view. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-7.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The recovery solidifies. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (1), pp.3-9.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The return of inflation – no. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (2), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's economy loses momentum. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. The UK's growth is under threat. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The United States - as the Bears close in. Current Economics , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 23 (2), pp.3-9.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. The US - are the bears closing in?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 24 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. The US upturn gathers strength and puts heart into the Laggards. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2004. The World Economy – worried about world growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (3), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2001. The world economy muddling through. Liverpool Investment Letter 7 , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. The world outlook stabilises as oil prices fall. Quarterly Economic Bulletin , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. They come in threes. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. What are the right models and policies for a world of low inflation?. National Institute Economic Review 196 (1), pp.92-106. (10.1177/0027950106067050)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Whither the MPC?. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 26 (1), pp.3-6.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2008. Why the United Kingdom should not join the Eurozone. International Finance 11 (3), pp.283-295. (10.1111/j.1468-2362.2008.01225.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Will housing bubble collapse?. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Wobbles in the equity markets. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. World business cycle on track. Liverpool Investment Letter , pp.3-5.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Brech, M. and Matthews, K. G. P. 1980. A rational expectations model of the U.K. under floating exchange rates. European Economic Review 14 (2), pp.189-219. (10.1016/0014-2921(80)90018-5)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Le, V. 2008. Inflation and the attitudes of Central Banks in emerging markets countries. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 29 , pp.23-27.
- Minford, A. P. L. et al. 1984. The Liverpool macroeconomic model of the United Kingdom. Economic Modelling 1 (1), pp.24-62. (10.1016/0264-9993(84)90010-5)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Matthews, K. G. P. and Marwaha, S. 1979. Terminal conditions as a means of ensuring unique solutions for rational expectations models with forward expectations. Economics Letters 4 (2), pp.117-120. (10.1016/0165-1765(79)90219-2)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Meenagh, D. and Webb, B. D. 2004. Britain and EMU: Assessing the costs in macroeconomic variability. The World Economy 27 (3), pp.301-358. (10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00602.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Meenagh, D. and Wong, J. 2006. Testing a simple structural model of endogenous growth. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 27 (3), pp.19-26.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Naraidoo, R. 2010. Vicious and virtuous circles - the political economy of unemployment. South African Journal of Economics 78 (1), pp.1-22. (10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01235.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Nowell, E. and Webb, B. D. 2003. Nominal Contracting and Monetary Targets - Drifting into Indexation. The Economic Journal 113 (484), pp.65-100. (10.1111/1468-0297.00085)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Nowell, E. and Mahambre, V. 2004. Introduction, summary and conclusions. Why the UK should renegotiate or leave the EU. Quarterly Economic Bulletin 25 (3), pp.24-32.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Ou, Z. 2013. Taylor rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982. Economic Modelling 32 , pp.113-123. (10.1016/j.econmod.2013.01.029)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Ou, Z. and Wickens, M. 2015. Revisiting the Great Moderation: policy or luck?. Open Economies Review 26 (2), pp.197-223. (10.1007/s11079-014-9319-7)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2003. Optimal monetary policy: is price-level targeting the next step?. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 50 (5), pp.650-667. (10.1111/j.0036-9292.2003.05005005.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Peel, D. 2007. On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets. Open Economies Review 18 (1), pp.119-125. (10.1007/s11079-007-9002-3)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinvasan, N. 2002. Are interest rate regressions evidence for a Taylor rule?. Economics Letters 76 (1), pp.145-150. (10.1016/S0165-1765(02)00034-4)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2003. How different are money supply rules from Taylor rules?. Indian Economic Review 38 (2), pp.157-166.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2008. Are central bank preferences asymmetric? A comment. Economic Notes 37 (1), pp.119-126. (10.1111/j.1468-0300.2008.00191.x)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Determinacy in New Keynesian Models: A role for money after all?. International Finance 14 (2), pp.211-229.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2006. Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization. Journal of Economics and Business 58 (5-6), pp.366-372. (10.1016/j.jeconbus.2006.06.006)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Srinivasan, N. 2011. Ruling out unstable equilibria in New Keynesian models. Economics Letters 112 (3), pp.247-249. (10.1016/j.econlet.2011.05.014)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. A new dawn for Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect , pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Entrepreneurs wanted: Merseyside business prospect. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 15 (2), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2003. Focus, distinctive competence and cost leadership can spell success. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2 (1), pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Grounds for optimism. Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics 16 (1), pp.3-8.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2005. It's not all roses on Merseyside. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 3 (2), pp.3-11.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Let market forces work. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4 (1), pp.3-11.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. Merseyside needs to maintain momentum. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 2 (2), pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2006. Plenty of opportunities available. Merseyside and North Wales Business Prospect 4 (2), pp.3-11.
- Minford, A. P. L. and Stoney, P. 2001. The UK and with it Cheshire and North Wales are on a good wicket but will Labour's re-regulation ruin it?. North Wales and Cheshire Business Prospect 7 (1), pp.3-10.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Theodoridis, K. and Meenagh, D. 2008. Testing a model of the UK by the method of indirect inference. Open Economies Review 20 (2), pp.265-291. (10.1007/s11079-008-9085-5)
- Minford, A. P. L. and Webb, B. D. 2005. Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML - some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits. Economic Modelling 22 (1), pp.187-205. (10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.002)
- Minford, A. P. L. , Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2015. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Italian Economic Journal 1 (3), pp.333-351. (10.1007/s40797-015-0020-9)
- Minford, P. 2019. The effects of Brexit on the UK economy. World Economy 42 (1), pp.57-67. (10.1111/twec.12771)
- Minford, P. , Gai, Y. and Meenagh, D. 2022. North and South: A regional model of the UK. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.565-616. (10.1007/s11079-021-09633-7)
- Minford, P. et al. 2022. The eurozone: what is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?. Journal of Financial Stability 63 101064. (10.1016/j.jfs.2022.101064)
- Minford, P. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2022. Is there consumer risk-pooling in the open economy? The evidence reconsidered. Open Economies Review 33 , pp.109-120. (10.1007/s11079-021-09622-w)
- Minford, P. , Ou, Z. and Zhu, Z. 2025. Testing for consumer risk-pooling in the open economy - further results. Open Economies Review 36 , pp.901-920. (10.1007/s11079-024-09782-5)
- Minford, P. and Srinivasan, N. 2015. Can the learnability criterion ensure determinacy in New Keynesian Models?. South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance 4 (1), pp.43-61. (10.1177/2277978715574615)
- Minford, P. and Stoney, P. 2000. North Wales is thriving in a service-led economy. Welsh Economic Review 12 (1), pp.20-23. (10.18573/wer.148)
- Minford, P. , Wang, Y. and Zhou, P. 2020. Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference. Applied Economics 52 (7), pp.726-741. (10.1080/00036846.2019.1648748)
- Minford, P. , Wickens, M. and Xu, Y. 2019. Testing part of a DSGE model by indirect inference. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 81 (1), pp.178-194. (10.1111/obes.12253)
- Minford, P. and Zhu, Z. 2024. Modeling the effects of Brexit on the British economy. Journal of Forecasting 43 (4), pp.1114-1126. (10.1002/for.3076)
- Oyekola, O. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2023. Global shocks in the US economy: effects on output and the real exchange rate. Open Economies Review 34 , pp.411-435. (10.1007/s11079-022-09680-8)
- Patrick, M. 2016. Testing macro models for policy use - An insurrection in applied modelling. The Manchester School 84 (S1), pp.42-55. (10.1111/manc.12164)
- Yang, X. , Minford, P. and Meenagh, D. 2021. Inequality and economic growth in the UK. Open Economies Review 32 , pp.37-69. (10.1007/s11079-020-09598-z)
- Zhao, Z. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, P. 2022. Should Hong Kong switch to Taylor rule?—Evidence from DSGE model. Applied Economics 54 (50), pp.5851-5872. (10.1080/00036846.2022.2053655)
Book sections
- Le, V. P. M. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2011. Measuring the extent and costs of EU protectionism. In: Jovanovic, M. N. ed. International handbook on the economics of integration: factor mobility, agriculture, environment and quantitative studies. Vol. 3, Elgar Original Reference Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. , pp.316-342.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2000. A story of monetary mismanagement. In: Thorpe, R. and Little, S. eds. Global Change: The Impact of Asia in the 21st Century. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. , pp.26-35.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2005. Britain's relationship with the European Union. In: Harris, P. and Booth, P. eds. Towards a Liberal Utopia?. London: Institute of Economic Affairs. , pp.119-127.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Inflation, unemployment and the pound. In: Roy, S. and Clarke, J. eds. Margaret Thatcher's Revolution: How it Happened and What it Mean (revised ed.). London: Continuum. , pp.50-66.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. Optimal monetary policy with endogenous contracts: is there a case for price-level targeting and money supply control?. In: Matthews, K. G. P. and Booth, P. M. eds. Issues in Monetary Policy: The Relationship Between Money and the Financial Markets. Chichester: Wiley. , pp.63-80.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2003. Supply-side economics. In: Snowdon, B. and Vane, H. R. eds. An Encyclopedia of Macroeconomics. Elgar Original Reference Chichester: Edward Elgar. , pp.679-689.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2013. The financial sector, the banks and the British economy - markets, money and mistaken regulation. In: Lawlor, S. ed. The Financial Sector and the UK Economy: The Danger of Over-Regulation. Politeia Series Vol. 86.London: Politeia. , pp.14-23.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Le, M. and Nowell, E. 2010. Measuring the economic costs and benefits of EU membership. In: Baimbridge, M. , Whyman, P. B. and Burkitt, B. eds. Britain in a Global World : Options for a New Beginning. Exeter: Imprint Academic. , pp.65-76.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Perugini, F. and Srinivasan, N. 2005. The observational equivalence of the Taylor Rule and Taylor-type rules. In: Pelzer, L. Z. ed. Trends in Macroeconomic Research. New York: Nova Science Publisher. , pp.1-14.
- Vo Phuong, M. L. , Minford, A. P. L. and Nowell, E. 2009. European economic policy: protectionism as an elite strategy. In: Gamble, A. and Lane, D. eds. The European Union and World Politics: Consensus and Division. Palgrave Macmillan. , pp.217-234.
Books
- Minford, A. P. L. 2006. An agenda for tax reform. London: Centre for Policy Studies.
- Minford, A. P. L. and David, P. 2002. Advanced macroeconomics - a primer. Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Mahambare, V. and Nowell, E. 2005. Should Britain leave the EU?: an economic analysis of a troubled relationship. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
- Minford, P. et al. 2015. Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship (2nd edition). United Kingdom: Edward Elgar. (10.4337/9781785360336)
Monographs
- Chou, J. , Easaw, J. and Minford, A. 2021. Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modelling? An empirical investigation.
- Le, V. P. M. , Meenagh, D. and Minford, A. 2021. State-dependent pricing turns money into a two-edged sword. Working paper. Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
- Lyu, J. et al. 2021. Macroprudential regulation in the post-crisis era: has the pendulum swung too far?. Working paper. Cardiff Economics Working Papers.
- Minford, A. P. L. 2002. Should Britain join the Euro? The Chancellor’s five tests examined. Other. London: Institute of Economic Affairs.
- Minford, A. P. L. , Xu, Y. and Zhou, P. 2014. How good are out of sample forecasting tests on DSGE models?. Working paper. Cardiff: Cardiff University.
Research
PhD supervision research interests
- Macroeconomic modelling and forecasting
- Macroeconomic policy
My recent publications can be seen at https://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pmi137.htm
Here are some of my recent papers:
News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2020, 66, (C)
A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — Making bricks with little straw Energy Economics, 2019, 81, (C), 503-518
Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings Open Economies Review, 2019, 30, (3), 593-620
Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2019, 81, (1), 178-194
The effects of Brexit on the UK economy The World Economy, 2019, 42, (1), 57-67 View citations (6) See also Working Paper (2019)
Teaching
I teach postgraduate students macroeconomics. My course for MSc students in International economics, Banking and Finance and in Financial Economics reviews different modern approaches to understanding the economy's behaviour and analysing the role of monetary and fiscal policy. The main textbook for the course is P. Minford and D. Peel - Advanced Macroeconomics: A Primer, Edward Elgar, second edition, 2019.
My course for first year PHD students (Advanced Macroeconomics- An Introduction) covers two semesters in 40 hours of lectures. It introduces students to the main elements of traditional macroeconomics and then goes on to representative agent models and to analysis of policy with them. The textbook used, which the lectures follow closely, is P. Minford and D. Peel 'Advanced macroeconomics- a primer' Edward Elgar, 2019, second edition.
Biography
I am a macroeconomist holding the chair of Applied Economics at Cardiff University where I direct the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, which publishes forecasts and analysis of the Uk and world economy. Before academic life I was an economic adviser to Her Majesty's Treasury's External Division and editor of the National Institute Review. From 1976 to 1997, I was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University where I founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics; this built the 'Liverpool Model' of the UK, which was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. I was a member of Monopolies and Mergers Commission 1990-96; and one of the H M Treasury's Panel of Forecasters ('6 Wise Men') January 1993-December 1996. I was honoured with a C.B.E. for services to economics in 1996. My economic interests include monetary, trade, labour market and macro economics and modelling. Recent books include: Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, (with S. Gupta, V. Mahambare, V. Le and Y. Xu) Edward Elgar, second edition, (December 2015); and (with David Meeanagh) 'After Brexit, what next? Trade, regulation and economic growth.' Edward Elgar, December 2020.
Supervisions
I am currently supervising 12 PhD students who are in the process of preparing their research and theses.
Five of my students have recently submitted or are about to submit their PhD theses: Emmanual Azom, Aigerim Rysbayeva, Juyi Lyu, Zhiqi Zhao. and Jonathan Lloyd.
Contact Details
[email protected]
+44 29208 75728
Aberconway Building, Room E26, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
+44 29208 75728
Aberconway Building, Room E26, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
