![Peter Morgan](https://profiles-cardiff.imgix.net/attachments/1359?w=200&h=200&auto=format&crop=faces&fit=crop&q=90")
Professor Peter Morgan
Professor of Quantitative Analysis
- MorganPH@cardiff.ac.uk
- +44 29208 75727
- Aberconway Building, Room B03, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
Overview
My main research and teaching are in data analysis and statistical methods applied to business and economic issues. Originally trained as a physical scientist, I am committed to interdisciplinary research - believing that innovation often proceeds from where the tectonic plates of established subject areas grind together.
I have publications in a variety of areas incuding statistical sampling for price indices, neural networks, community violence, medical research, and consumer behaviour.
Publication
2024
- Matthews, K., Heravi, S., Morgan, P., Page, N., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2024. Alcohol prices, the April effect, and the environment, in violence-related injury in England and Wales. European Journal of Health Economics 25(2), pp. 237-255. (10.1007/s10198-023-01583-w)
2022
- Kalebic, N. et al. 2022. The all-Wales forensic adolescent consultation and treatment service (FACTS): A 5-year referral cohort study. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 32(3) (10.1002/cbm.2244)
2019
- Choudhury, M. et al. 2019. Association between HbA1c and the development of cystic fibrosis‐related diabetes. Diabetic Medicine 36(10), pp. 1251-1255. (10.1111/dme.13912)
2017
- Rogers, A., Foxall, G. R. and Morgan, P. H. 2017. Building consumer understanding by utilizing a Bayesian hierarchical structure within the behavioral perspective model. Behavior Analyst 40(2), pp. 419-455. (10.1007/s40614-017-0120-y)
- Greene, M., Morgan, P. and Foxall, G. 2017. NEURAL networks and consumer behavior: NEURAL models, logistic regression, and the behavioral perspective model. The Behavior Analyst 40(2), pp. 393-418. (10.1007/s40614-017-0105-x)
- Yan, J., Tian, K., Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. 2017. The vices and virtues of consumption choices: Price promotion and consumer decision making. Marketing Letters 28 (10.1007/s11002-017-9421-x)
- Rogers, A., Daunt, K. L., Morgan, P. and Beynon, M. 2017. Examining the existence of double jeopardy and negative double jeopardy within Twitter. European Journal of Marketing 51(7/8), pp. 1224-1247. (10.1108/EJM-03-2015-0126)
- Page, N., Sivarajasingam, V., Matthews, K., Heravi, S., Morgan, P. and Shepherd, J. 2017. Preventing violence-related injuries in England and Wales: A panel study examining the impact of on-trade and off-trade alcohol prices. Injury Prevention 23(1), pp. 33-39. (10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041884)
2016
- Yan, J., Tian, K., Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. 2016. Asymmetric demand patterns for products with added nutritional benefits and products without nutritional benefits. European Journal of Marketing 50(9/10), pp. 1672 -1702. (10.1108/EJM-06-2015-0356)
- Pearson, J. A. et al. 2016. Proinsulin expression shapes the TCR repertoire but fails to control the development of low-avidity insulin-reactive CD8+ T cells. Diabetes 65(6), pp. 1679-1689. (10.2337/db15-1498)
- Rogers, A., Morgan, P. H. and Foxall, G. R. 2016. Triple jeopardy in behavioural perspective. In: Foxall, G. R. ed. The Routledge Companion to Consumer Behavior Analysis. Routledge Companions in Business, Management and Accounting Routledge, pp. 150-174.
2015
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Wells, J., Morgan, P., Matthews, K., Moore, S. and Shepherd, J. 2015. Trends in violence in England and Wales 2010-2014. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 70(6), pp. 616-621. (10.1136/jech-2015-206598)
2014
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. A comparison of six sampling schemes for price index construction in a COICOP food group. Applied Economics 46(22), pp. 2685-2699. (10.1080/00036846.2014.909574)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K. G. P., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2014. Trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Injury 45(3), pp. 592-598. (10.1016/j.injury.2013.06.020)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups. Journal of Applied Statistics 41(7), pp. 1453-1470. (10.1080/02664763.2014.881466)
2013
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2013. OP44 trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 67(Suppl), pp. A22-A23. (10.1136/jech-2013-203126.44)
2010
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonal adjustment with 'bad' neural networks: a case of benign underfitting. International Journal of Applied Management Science 2(4), pp. 335-350. (10.1504/IJAMS.2010.036590)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonality and neural networks: a new approach. International Journal of Metaheuristics 1(2), pp. 181-197. (10.1504/IJMHEUR.2010.034205)
2009
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Shepherd, J. P. and Walker, R. V. 2009. Trends in violence in England and Wales 2000-2004: An accident and emergency perspective. Injury 40(8), pp. 820-825. (10.1016/j.injury.2008.08.017)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. P. and Matthews, K. G. P. 2009. Vulnerability to assault injury: An emergency department perspective. Emergency Medicine Journal 26(10), pp. 711-714. (10.1136/emj.2008.061580)
2008
- Morgan, P. H. 2008. Differential evolution and sparse neural networks. Expert Systems -Oxford- 25(4), pp. 394-413. (10.1111/j.1468-0394.2008.00466.x)
2006
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2006. Model selection in neural networks: some difficulties. European Journal of Operational Research 170(2), pp. 567-577. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.026)
2004
- Morgan, P. H. 2004. Differential evolution and sparse neural networks. Presented at: Approches Connexionnistes en Sciences Economiques et de Gestion (ACSEG) 2004, Lille, France, 18-19 November 2004.
- Matthews, K. G. P., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2004. Alcohol and vulnerability to violence: A micro study based on emergency department violent injury data. Presented at: British Society of Criminology Conference 2004: Criminology, Governance and Regulation, Portsmouth, UK, 6-9 July 2004.
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2004. Evaluating Kohonen's learning rule: an approach through genetic algorithms. European Journal of Operational Research 154(1), pp. 191-205. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00643-4)
2003
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2003. Neural networks, linear functions and neglected non-linearity. Computational Management Science 1(1), pp. 15-29. (10.1007/s10287-003-0003-4)
- Morgan, P. H. and Peel, D. A. 2003. The optimal output target and degree of banker conservativeness in a model with a non-linear Phillips curve. Applied Economics Letters 10(6), pp. 323-330. (10.1080/13504850210161896)
- Ball, A., Morgan, P. H., Fenwick, D. and Silver, M. S. 2003. Price collection and quality assurance of item sampling in the Retail Prices Index. How can scanner data help?. Presented at: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, 15-16 September 2000 Presented at Feenstra, R. C. and Shapiro, M. D. eds.Scanner data and price indexes. Studies in Income and Wealth Cambridge, MA.: National Bureau of Economic Research pp. 67-88.
2002
- Curry, B., Morgan, P. H. and Silver, M. S. 2002. Neural networks and non-linear statistical methods: an application to the modelling of price-quality relationships. Computers & Operations Research 29(8), pp. 951-969. (10.1016/S0305-0548(00)00096-4)
2001
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2001. Knowledge discovery in marketing: an approach through rough-set theory. European journal of marketing 35(7/8), pp. 915-935. (10.1108/EUM0000000005734)
- Curry, B., Morgan, P. H. and Silver, M. 2001. Hedonic regressions: mis-specification and neural networks. Applied Economics 33(5), pp. 659-671. (10.1080/00036840122335)
2000
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2000. Classification and rule induction using rough set theory. Expert Systems 17(3), pp. 136-148. (10.1111/1468-0394.00136)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2000. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: an alternative approach to multicriteria decision modelling. Omega 28(1), pp. 37-50. (10.1016/S0305-0483(99)00033-X)
- Morgan, P. H., Curry, B. and Beynon, M. J. 2000. Pruning neural networks by minimization of the estimated variance. European Journal of Economic and Social Systems 14(1), pp. 1-16. (10.1051/ejess:2000104)
1999
- Morgan, P. H., Curry, B. and Beynon, M. J. 1999. Comparing neural network approximations for different functional forms. Expert Systems 16(2), pp. 60-71. (10.1111/1468-0394.00096)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 1999. Neural networks and finite-order approximations. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 10(3), pp. 225-244. (10.1093/imaman/10.3.225)
1997
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 1997. Neural networks: a need for caution. Omega 25(1), pp. 123-133. (10.1016/S0305-0483(96)00052-7)
1981
- Evans, J. C. and Morgan, P. H. 1981. Automatic analysis of mixed spectra. Analytica Chimica Acta 133(3), pp. 329-338. (10.1016/S0003-2670(01)83205-0)
1980
- Evans, J. C., Gillard, R. D., Lancashire, R. J. and Morgan, P. H. 1980. Equilibria in complexes of N-heterocyclic molecules. Part 29. An electron spin resonance study of some N-heterocyclic complex ions of silver(II). Journal of the Chemical Society. Dalton Transactions(8), pp. 1277-1281. (10.1039/dt9800001277)
1978
- Evans, J. C., Morgan, P. H. and Renaud, R. H. 1978. Simulation of electron spin resonance spectra by fast fourier transform. Analytica Chimica Acta 103(2), pp. 175-187. (10.1016/S0003-2670(01)84037-X)
- Evans, A. G., Evans, J. C., Espley, D. J. C., Morgan, P. H. and Mortimer, J. 1978. Electron spin resonance studies of ziegler-type catalysts. Part 2. Identification and spectra of some dialkyldi(η-cyclopentadienyl)vanadium(IV) complexes. Journal of the Chemical Society. Dalton Transactions(1), pp. 57-61. (10.1039/dt9780000057)
Adrannau llyfrau
- Rogers, A., Morgan, P. H. and Foxall, G. R. 2016. Triple jeopardy in behavioural perspective. In: Foxall, G. R. ed. The Routledge Companion to Consumer Behavior Analysis. Routledge Companions in Business, Management and Accounting Routledge, pp. 150-174.
Cynadleddau
- Morgan, P. H. 2004. Differential evolution and sparse neural networks. Presented at: Approches Connexionnistes en Sciences Economiques et de Gestion (ACSEG) 2004, Lille, France, 18-19 November 2004.
- Matthews, K. G. P., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2004. Alcohol and vulnerability to violence: A micro study based on emergency department violent injury data. Presented at: British Society of Criminology Conference 2004: Criminology, Governance and Regulation, Portsmouth, UK, 6-9 July 2004.
- Ball, A., Morgan, P. H., Fenwick, D. and Silver, M. S. 2003. Price collection and quality assurance of item sampling in the Retail Prices Index. How can scanner data help?. Presented at: Scanner Data and Price Indexes, 15-16 September 2000 Presented at Feenstra, R. C. and Shapiro, M. D. eds.Scanner data and price indexes. Studies in Income and Wealth Cambridge, MA.: National Bureau of Economic Research pp. 67-88.
Erthyglau
- Matthews, K., Heravi, S., Morgan, P., Page, N., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2024. Alcohol prices, the April effect, and the environment, in violence-related injury in England and Wales. European Journal of Health Economics 25(2), pp. 237-255. (10.1007/s10198-023-01583-w)
- Kalebic, N. et al. 2022. The all-Wales forensic adolescent consultation and treatment service (FACTS): A 5-year referral cohort study. Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health 32(3) (10.1002/cbm.2244)
- Choudhury, M. et al. 2019. Association between HbA1c and the development of cystic fibrosis‐related diabetes. Diabetic Medicine 36(10), pp. 1251-1255. (10.1111/dme.13912)
- Rogers, A., Foxall, G. R. and Morgan, P. H. 2017. Building consumer understanding by utilizing a Bayesian hierarchical structure within the behavioral perspective model. Behavior Analyst 40(2), pp. 419-455. (10.1007/s40614-017-0120-y)
- Greene, M., Morgan, P. and Foxall, G. 2017. NEURAL networks and consumer behavior: NEURAL models, logistic regression, and the behavioral perspective model. The Behavior Analyst 40(2), pp. 393-418. (10.1007/s40614-017-0105-x)
- Yan, J., Tian, K., Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. 2017. The vices and virtues of consumption choices: Price promotion and consumer decision making. Marketing Letters 28 (10.1007/s11002-017-9421-x)
- Rogers, A., Daunt, K. L., Morgan, P. and Beynon, M. 2017. Examining the existence of double jeopardy and negative double jeopardy within Twitter. European Journal of Marketing 51(7/8), pp. 1224-1247. (10.1108/EJM-03-2015-0126)
- Page, N., Sivarajasingam, V., Matthews, K., Heravi, S., Morgan, P. and Shepherd, J. 2017. Preventing violence-related injuries in England and Wales: A panel study examining the impact of on-trade and off-trade alcohol prices. Injury Prevention 23(1), pp. 33-39. (10.1136/injuryprev-2015-041884)
- Yan, J., Tian, K., Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. 2016. Asymmetric demand patterns for products with added nutritional benefits and products without nutritional benefits. European Journal of Marketing 50(9/10), pp. 1672 -1702. (10.1108/EJM-06-2015-0356)
- Pearson, J. A. et al. 2016. Proinsulin expression shapes the TCR repertoire but fails to control the development of low-avidity insulin-reactive CD8+ T cells. Diabetes 65(6), pp. 1679-1689. (10.2337/db15-1498)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Wells, J., Morgan, P., Matthews, K., Moore, S. and Shepherd, J. 2015. Trends in violence in England and Wales 2010-2014. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 70(6), pp. 616-621. (10.1136/jech-2015-206598)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. A comparison of six sampling schemes for price index construction in a COICOP food group. Applied Economics 46(22), pp. 2685-2699. (10.1080/00036846.2014.909574)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K. G. P., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2014. Trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Injury 45(3), pp. 592-598. (10.1016/j.injury.2013.06.020)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups. Journal of Applied Statistics 41(7), pp. 1453-1470. (10.1080/02664763.2014.881466)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2013. OP44 trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 67(Suppl), pp. A22-A23. (10.1136/jech-2013-203126.44)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonal adjustment with 'bad' neural networks: a case of benign underfitting. International Journal of Applied Management Science 2(4), pp. 335-350. (10.1504/IJAMS.2010.036590)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonality and neural networks: a new approach. International Journal of Metaheuristics 1(2), pp. 181-197. (10.1504/IJMHEUR.2010.034205)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Shepherd, J. P. and Walker, R. V. 2009. Trends in violence in England and Wales 2000-2004: An accident and emergency perspective. Injury 40(8), pp. 820-825. (10.1016/j.injury.2008.08.017)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. P. and Matthews, K. G. P. 2009. Vulnerability to assault injury: An emergency department perspective. Emergency Medicine Journal 26(10), pp. 711-714. (10.1136/emj.2008.061580)
- Morgan, P. H. 2008. Differential evolution and sparse neural networks. Expert Systems -Oxford- 25(4), pp. 394-413. (10.1111/j.1468-0394.2008.00466.x)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2006. Model selection in neural networks: some difficulties. European Journal of Operational Research 170(2), pp. 567-577. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.026)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2004. Evaluating Kohonen's learning rule: an approach through genetic algorithms. European Journal of Operational Research 154(1), pp. 191-205. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00643-4)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2003. Neural networks, linear functions and neglected non-linearity. Computational Management Science 1(1), pp. 15-29. (10.1007/s10287-003-0003-4)
- Morgan, P. H. and Peel, D. A. 2003. The optimal output target and degree of banker conservativeness in a model with a non-linear Phillips curve. Applied Economics Letters 10(6), pp. 323-330. (10.1080/13504850210161896)
- Curry, B., Morgan, P. H. and Silver, M. S. 2002. Neural networks and non-linear statistical methods: an application to the modelling of price-quality relationships. Computers & Operations Research 29(8), pp. 951-969. (10.1016/S0305-0548(00)00096-4)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2001. Knowledge discovery in marketing: an approach through rough-set theory. European journal of marketing 35(7/8), pp. 915-935. (10.1108/EUM0000000005734)
- Curry, B., Morgan, P. H. and Silver, M. 2001. Hedonic regressions: mis-specification and neural networks. Applied Economics 33(5), pp. 659-671. (10.1080/00036840122335)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2000. Classification and rule induction using rough set theory. Expert Systems 17(3), pp. 136-148. (10.1111/1468-0394.00136)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2000. The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence: an alternative approach to multicriteria decision modelling. Omega 28(1), pp. 37-50. (10.1016/S0305-0483(99)00033-X)
- Morgan, P. H., Curry, B. and Beynon, M. J. 2000. Pruning neural networks by minimization of the estimated variance. European Journal of Economic and Social Systems 14(1), pp. 1-16. (10.1051/ejess:2000104)
- Morgan, P. H., Curry, B. and Beynon, M. J. 1999. Comparing neural network approximations for different functional forms. Expert Systems 16(2), pp. 60-71. (10.1111/1468-0394.00096)
- Beynon, M. J., Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 1999. Neural networks and finite-order approximations. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 10(3), pp. 225-244. (10.1093/imaman/10.3.225)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 1997. Neural networks: a need for caution. Omega 25(1), pp. 123-133. (10.1016/S0305-0483(96)00052-7)
- Evans, J. C. and Morgan, P. H. 1981. Automatic analysis of mixed spectra. Analytica Chimica Acta 133(3), pp. 329-338. (10.1016/S0003-2670(01)83205-0)
- Evans, J. C., Gillard, R. D., Lancashire, R. J. and Morgan, P. H. 1980. Equilibria in complexes of N-heterocyclic molecules. Part 29. An electron spin resonance study of some N-heterocyclic complex ions of silver(II). Journal of the Chemical Society. Dalton Transactions(8), pp. 1277-1281. (10.1039/dt9800001277)
- Evans, J. C., Morgan, P. H. and Renaud, R. H. 1978. Simulation of electron spin resonance spectra by fast fourier transform. Analytica Chimica Acta 103(2), pp. 175-187. (10.1016/S0003-2670(01)84037-X)
- Evans, A. G., Evans, J. C., Espley, D. J. C., Morgan, P. H. and Mortimer, J. 1978. Electron spin resonance studies of ziegler-type catalysts. Part 2. Identification and spectra of some dialkyldi(η-cyclopentadienyl)vanadium(IV) complexes. Journal of the Chemical Society. Dalton Transactions(1), pp. 57-61. (10.1039/dt9780000057)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. A comparison of six sampling schemes for price index construction in a COICOP food group. Applied Economics 46(22), pp. 2685-2699. (10.1080/00036846.2014.909574)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K. G. P., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2014. Trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Injury 45(3), pp. 592-598. (10.1016/j.injury.2013.06.020)
- Heravi, S. and Morgan, P. H. 2014. Sampling schemes for price index construction: a performance comparison across the classification of individual consumption by purpose food groups. Journal of Applied Statistics 41(7), pp. 1453-1470. (10.1080/02664763.2014.881466)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Page, N., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Moore, S. C. and Shepherd, J. P. 2013. OP44 trends in community violence in England and Wales 2005-2009. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 67(Suppl), pp. A22-A23. (10.1136/jech-2013-203126.44)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonal adjustment with 'bad' neural networks: a case of benign underfitting. International Journal of Applied Management Science 2(4), pp. 335-350. (10.1504/IJAMS.2010.036590)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2010. Seasonality and neural networks: a new approach. International Journal of Metaheuristics 1(2), pp. 181-197. (10.1504/IJMHEUR.2010.034205)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Matthews, K., Shepherd, J. P. and Walker, R. V. 2009. Trends in violence in England and Wales 2000-2004: An accident and emergency perspective. Injury 40(8), pp. 820-825. (10.1016/j.injury.2008.08.017)
- Sivarajasingam, V., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. P. and Matthews, K. G. P. 2009. Vulnerability to assault injury: An emergency department perspective. Emergency Medicine Journal 26(10), pp. 711-714. (10.1136/emj.2008.061580)
- Morgan, P. H. 2008. Differential evolution and sparse neural networks. Expert Systems -Oxford- 25(4), pp. 394-413. (10.1111/j.1468-0394.2008.00466.x)
- Curry, B. and Morgan, P. H. 2006. Model selection in neural networks: some difficulties. European Journal of Operational Research 170(2), pp. 567-577. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.026)
- Matthews, K. G. P., Morgan, P. H., Shepherd, J. and Sivarajasingam, V. 2004. Alcohol and vulnerability to violence: A micro study based on emergency department violent injury data. Presented at: British Society of Criminology Conference 2004: Criminology, Governance and Regulation, Portsmouth, UK, 6-9 July 2004.
Research
Primary research interests
- Comparison of Sampling Schemes for Price Indices
- Genetic Algorithms for Neural Network Training
- The Micro-determinants of Violent Assault
- Neural Networks and Functional Forms
- Sparse Neural Networks
PhD supervision research interests
- Quantitative analysis for business research
Teaching
Teaching commitments
- Year 2 Undergraduate BS2506, Inferential Statistics and Statistical Modelling
- Year 3 Undergraduate BS3519, Exploratory Data Analysis
- MSc (Econ) Economic Forecasting
- 'Introduction to the R Statistical Environment' and 'Intermediate R' for Doctoral Academy
Biography
Qualifications
- PhD (Wales)
- BSc (Tech)
Professional memberships
- Member of the Violence Research Group