Dr Francisco Pinto

Publication

• Date
• Type

Research

Research interest

• International finance
• Time-series econometrics
• Banking and finance
• Macroeconomics

Working papers

Financial advisory firms, asset reallocation and price pressure in the FOREX market
[with M. Bowe and S. Hyde]
This paper analyses the potential for massive, coordinated portfolio asset re-allocations in the Chilean pension fund  industry to act as a mechanism for exerting price pressures in the Chilean peso FOREX market. Using a proprietary  database, we document significant price pressure and enhanced volatility in the nominal exchange rate surrounding pension fund transactions initiated by financial advisory firm recommendations. Our findings suggest other FOREX  market participants seek to exploit the anticipated portfolio adjustments following such recommendations by front-running the pension fund trades.

Asymptotic dependence and exchange rate forecasting 
[with M. Bowe and S. Hyde]
This study examines the non-linear relationship between commodity and exchange returns using a sample of commodity- exporting economies. Our results show that the ability of commodity returns to forecast exchange rate movements lies in a revealed tail dependence relationship between the two variables returns. Our findings suggest both tail dependence  between exchange rate and commodity returns, as well as the revealed forecasting ability of commodity returns for exchange rates, are transitory and short-lived. Indeed, only contemporaneous information at a daily frequency can empirically capture any non-linear relationship.

Vulnerability to Changes in External Financing Due to Global Factors
[with G. Contreras]
Foreign capital disruptions can cause costly current account adjustments unless offset by alternative external financing. This paper introduces a vulnerability measure, differentiating resilient countries from vulnerable ones. Vulnerable economies experience higher growth and exchange rate appreciations during capital inflow surges but suffer more significant depreciations during sudden stops. We identify factors influencing vulnerability, including financial openness, credit ratings, and net foreign assets.

Policy peer-reviewed papers (only Spanish version available)

• Contreras, G. and Pinto, F., (2016) “Exchange rate pass-through to disaggregate inflation in Chile”, Journal Economía Chilena, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 154–170.
• Contreras, G. and Pinto, F., (2015) “Vulnerability to changes in external financing due to global factors”, Journal Economía Chilena, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 98–119.
• Contreras, G. and Pinto, F., (2015) “Empirical evidence of conditional convergence in Chile”, Journal Economía Chilena, vol. 18, no. 2, pp. 120–137

Teaching

Lecturer in Economics, Cardiff University, UK (2023 - present)

Economics of Banking (undergraduate, 46 students, evaluation: not available yet)
Money, Banking, and Finance (undergraduate, 189 students, evaluation: not available yet)

Lecturer in Finance, The University of Manchester, UK (2022–2023)

International finance (undergraduate lecture, 478 students, evaluation: 3.9/5.0)
Empirical finance (undergraduate workshops, 174 students, evaluation: 4.6/5.0)
Financial decision making (undergraduate workshops, 583 students, evaluation: 4.8/5.0)
Investment analysis (undergraduate workshops, 796 students, evaluation: 4.6/5.0)
Thesis supervisor (MSc in finance, 9 students)

Teaching assistant, The University of Manchester, UK (2018-2021)

Quantitative methods (undergraduate)
Thesis advisor/estimation support (undergraduate/graduate)
Introductory econometrics (graduate)
Macroeconomics (undergraduate)

Lecturer, Universidad de Santiago de Chile (2014)

Macroeconomics (undergraduate lecture, 40 students)

Lecturer, SEK University, Chile (2013)

Econometrics (undergraduate lecture, 37 students)

Teaching assistant, Universidad de Santiago de Chile (2006-2009)

Macroeconomics I and II
Microeconomics I and II
International finance
Industrial Organization

Biography

Education

Ph.D. Finance | The University of Manchester, UK (2017-2022)
M.Sc. Finance | The University of Manchester, UK (2016-2017)
M.Sc. Financial Economics | Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Chile (2009-2010)
B.A. Economics | Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Chile (2004-2008)

Previous experience

Lecturer (assistant professor) in Finance | The University of Manchester, UK (2022-2023)
Research economist | Central Bank of Chile, Chile (2010-2016)

Honours and awards

Teaching Excellence | Alliance MBS, The University of Manchester, UK (2022)
Ph.D. scholarship | ANID (former CONICYT), Chile (2019-2021)
Ph.D. scholarship | Alliance MBS, The University of Manchester, UK (2017-2020)
M.Sc. scholarship | Central Bank of Chile (2016-2017)