Dr Caroline Wainwright
Lecturer in Climate Change
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
- WainwrightC2@cardiff.ac.uk
- Main Building, Room Room 2.49, Park Place, Cardiff, CF10 3AT
- Available for postgraduate supervision
Overview
My research is around climate variability and change over Africa. In particular I'm very interesting in exploring variability and changes in the seasonal cycle of rainfall over Africa, including recent trends, current variability, and future projected changes. I've worked on methodologies for characterising the seasonal cycle of precipitation across Africa and the tropics, and used these methodologies for a range of applications.
Recently, I've also started working more in areas relating to the impacts of climate variability over Africa, particularly working in the areas of renewable energy generation and health. I'm currently involved with a project looking at the impact of climate on migration in Madagascar.
I'm very interested in how forecasts and warnings can enhance preparedness across Africa.
For more details on this, please see this interview from my previous role.
Publication
2023
- Talib, J., Taylor, C. M., Harris, B. L. and Wainwright, C. M. 2023. Surface-driven amplification of MJO circulation anomalies across East Africa and its influence on the Turkana jet. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149(754), pp. 1890-1912. (10.1002/qj.4487)
- Hirons, L. et al. 2023. Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather 78(5), pp. 148-153. (10.1002/wea.4381)
- Palmer, P. I. et al. 2023. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x)
- Crook, J. et al. 2023. The Leeds Africa Climate Hackathon – experiences of running a hackathon and highlights of results. Weather 78(2), pp. 36-42. (10.1002/wea.4246)
2022
- Gudoshava, M. et al. 2022. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology 42(12), pp. 6562-6578. (10.1002/joc.7627)
- Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Wainwright, C., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Amankwah, A. and Klutse, N. A. B. 2022. Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on the representation of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall in Southern West Africa. Atmosphere 13(7), article number: 999. (10.3390/atmos13070999)
- Wainwright, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2022. Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), article number: e2021GL097231. (10.1029/2021GL097231)
2021
- Wainwright, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2021. Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(9), pp. 2339–2357. (10.1175/jhm-d-21-0017.1)
- Senior, C. A. et al. 2021. Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(6), pp. E1206–E1223. (10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Powell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. 2021. Future changes in seasonality in East Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection. Journal of Climate 34(4), pp. 1367-1385. (10.1175/jcli-d-20-0450.1)
- Taylor, J. et al. 2021. Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change 164(3-4), article number: 41. (10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y)
- Black, E. et al. 2021. Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters 16(1), article number: 14009. (10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3)
- Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. and Marsham, J. H. 2021. Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather 76(1), pp. 26-31. (10.1002/wea.3824)
2020
- Monerie, P. A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A. A. 2020. Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Climate Dynamics 55(5-6), pp. 1385-1401. (10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0)
2019
- Wainwright, C. M., Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P., Allan, R. P., Black, E. and Turner, A. G. 2019. The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics 53(11), pp. 7027-7044. (10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2019. ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2, article number: 34. (10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7)
2018
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2018. Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate 31(23), pp. 9719-9738. (10.1175/jcli-d-18-0102.1)
2017
- Dunning, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2017. Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters 12, pp. 1-11., article number: 114001. (10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e)
2016
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. C. L. and Allan, R. P. 2016. The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121(19), pp. 11405-11424. (10.1002/2016JD025428)
2015
- Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M. and Spracklen, D. V. 2015. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15(21), pp. 12251–12266. (10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015)
- Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. 2015. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters 10(6), article number: 64002. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002)
2014
- Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. 2014. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8), pp. 2979-2987. (10.1002/2014GL059282)
Articles
- Talib, J., Taylor, C. M., Harris, B. L. and Wainwright, C. M. 2023. Surface-driven amplification of MJO circulation anomalies across East Africa and its influence on the Turkana jet. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149(754), pp. 1890-1912. (10.1002/qj.4487)
- Hirons, L. et al. 2023. Experiences of co-producing sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural application in Kenya and Ghana. Weather 78(5), pp. 148-153. (10.1002/wea.4381)
- Palmer, P. I. et al. 2023. Drivers and impacts of Eastern African rainfall variability. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment (10.1038/s43017-023-00397-x)
- Crook, J. et al. 2023. The Leeds Africa Climate Hackathon – experiences of running a hackathon and highlights of results. Weather 78(2), pp. 36-42. (10.1002/wea.4246)
- Gudoshava, M. et al. 2022. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with early and late onset for Eastern Africa short rains. International Journal of Climatology 42(12), pp. 6562-6578. (10.1002/joc.7627)
- Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. A., Wainwright, C., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Amankwah, A. and Klutse, N. A. B. 2022. Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP on the representation of onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall in Southern West Africa. Atmosphere 13(7), article number: 999. (10.3390/atmos13070999)
- Wainwright, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2022. Consistent trends in dry spell length in recent observations and future projections. Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), article number: e2021GL097231. (10.1029/2021GL097231)
- Wainwright, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2021. Future changes in wet and dry season characteristics in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(9), pp. 2339–2357. (10.1175/jhm-d-21-0017.1)
- Senior, C. A. et al. 2021. Convection permitting regional climate change simulations for understanding future climate and informing decision making in Africa. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 102(6), pp. E1206–E1223. (10.1175/bams-d-20-0020.1)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Powell, D. P., Finney, D. L. and Black, E. 2021. Future changes in seasonality in East Africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection. Journal of Climate 34(4), pp. 1367-1385. (10.1175/jcli-d-20-0450.1)
- Taylor, J. et al. 2021. Phenological tracking of a seasonal climate window in a recovering tropical island bird species. Climatic Change 164(3-4), article number: 41. (10.1007/s10584-021-02971-y)
- Black, E. et al. 2021. Cocoa plant productivity in West Africa under climate change: a modelling and experimental study. Environmental Research Letters 16(1), article number: 14009. (10.1088/1748-9326/abc3f3)
- Wainwright, C. M., Finney, D. L., Kilavi, M., Black, E. and Marsham, J. H. 2021. Extreme rainfall in East Africa, October 2019–January 2020 and context under future climate change. Weather 76(1), pp. 26-31. (10.1002/wea.3824)
- Monerie, P. A., Wainwright, C. M., Sidibe, M. and Akinsanola, A. A. 2020. Model uncertainties in climate change impacts on Sahel precipitation in ensembles of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Climate Dynamics 55(5-6), pp. 1385-1401. (10.1007/s00382-020-05332-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Hirons, L. C., Klingaman, N. P., Allan, R. P., Black, E. and Turner, A. G. 2019. The impact of air–sea coupling and ocean biases on the seasonal cycle of southern West African precipitation. Climate Dynamics 53(11), pp. 7027-7044. (10.1007/s00382-019-04973-0)
- Wainwright, C. M., Marsham, J. H., Keane, R. J., Rowell, D. P., Finney, D. L., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2019. ‘Eastern African Paradox’ rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 2, article number: 34. (10.1038/s41612-019-0091-7)
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. and Allan, R. P. 2018. Later wet seasons with more intense rainfall over Africa under future climate change. Journal of Climate 31(23), pp. 9719-9738. (10.1175/jcli-d-18-0102.1)
- Dunning, C. M., Allan, R. P. and Black, E. 2017. Identification of deficiencies in seasonal rainfall simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environmental Research Letters 12, pp. 1-11., article number: 114001. (10.1088/1748-9326/aa869e)
- Dunning, C. M., Black, E. C. L. and Allan, R. P. 2016. The onset and cessation of seasonal rainfall over Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121(19), pp. 11405-11424. (10.1002/2016JD025428)
- Kolusu, S. R., Marsham, J. H., Mulcahy, J., Johnson, B., Dunning, C., Bush, M. and Spracklen, D. V. 2015. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15(21), pp. 12251–12266. (10.5194/acp-15-12251-2015)
- Dunning, C. M., Turner, A. G. and Brayshaw, D. J. 2015. The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India. Environmental Research Letters 10(6), article number: 64002. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064002)
- Gray, S. L., Dunning, C. M., Methven, J., Masato, G. and Chagnon, J. M. 2014. Systematic model forecast error in Rossby wave structure. Geophysical Research Letters 41(8), pp. 2979-2987. (10.1002/2014GL059282)
Research
My research is around climate variability and change over Africa. In particular I'm very interesting in exploring variability and changes in the seasonal cycle of rainfall over Africa, including recent trends, current variability, and future projected changes. I've worked on methodologies for characterising the seasonal cycle of precipitation across Africa and the tropics, and used these methodologies for a range of applications.
During my PhD I developed a new methodology for analysing African wet seasons by characterising the rainfall regime and identifying the wet season’s onset and cessation dates (Dunning et al., 2016). You can read more about the methodology in this blog article.
This was used to assess both recent variability and future projections of changing seasonality across Africa (Dunning et al., 2018) and to assess climate model representation of the seasonal cycle. This blog article discusses the work on future projections. Idealised simulations were also performed to explore model errors in the representation of the seasonal cycle over southern West Africa. The code to calculate onset and cessation dates is available on Github.
My work then naturally progressed onto research linking the recent decline in the East African long rains to changing seasonal timing (Wainwright et al., 2019, blog article), and research determining patterns of changing precipitation seasonality in convection-permitting models (Wainwright et al., 2021). This work was completed as part of the HyCRISTAL Project.
Additionally, I have further developed the methodology for determining onset and cessation to classify wet and dry seasons throughout the tropics, in order to explore changes in rainfall extremes in wet and dry seasons separately across the tropics. Future climate projections were found to show greater increases in the length of dry spells and larger temperature increases in the dry seasons than in the wet seasons (Wainwright et al., 2021). This contributed to a project with a major UK confectioner looking at changing climatic suitability for cocoa cultivation under future climate change. Meeting regularly with representatives from the confectioner informed us that more extreme dry seasons may be challenging for cocoa, which is a perennial crop, thus these findings on longer dry spells during dry seasons were particularly important and commercially relevant.
At present, I'm exploring the dry season to wet season transitions over East Africa, in particular, the drivers that lead to rainfall events at the end of the dry season, that mark the transition to the wet season.
Recently, I've also started working more in areas relating to the impacts of climate variability over Africa, particularly working in the areas of renewable energy generation and health. I'm currently involved with a project looking at the impact of climate on migration in Madagascar.
I also worked on the African SWIFT project, investigating sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting over tropical Africa. Part of this involved working with agriculturalists in Ghana to produce sub-seasonal forecast products for agricultural planning (Hirons et al., 2023). I am increasingly working in early warning and preparedness, and spoke about this at a COP27 side event.
Teaching
I teach on a range of modules and field trips on topics around atmospheric processes and climate change. At present I am teaching on the following modules.
- The Ocean-Atmosphere System
- Climate Change, Adaptation and Resilience
- Kos Fieldtrip
- Data Exploration Grand Challenge
Biography
2023 - : Lecturer at Cardiff University
2022: Research Fellowship at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College, London
2018-2021: Post-Doctoral Researcher at the University of Reading
Research themes
Specialisms
- Tropical meteorology
- Climate change science
- Climate change impacts and adaptation
- Weather Forecasting