Ewch i’r prif gynnwys
Paul Harper

Professor Paul Harper

Professor of Operational Research

Yr Ysgol Mathemateg

Email
Harper@caerdydd.ac.uk
Telephone
+44 29208 76841
Campuses
Abacws, Ystafell 2.56, Ffordd Senghennydd, Cathays, Caerdydd, CF24 4AG
Comment
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Trosolwyg

My research interests are in stochastic modelling with applications to healthcare.  This includes queueing theory, game theory and simulation methods, mathematical modelling of healthcare systems and the prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases, and data mining techniques.  Author of more than 70 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters, I have been a named investigator on £5.5m of funded research grants, twice winner of the Cardiff University innovation and Impact prize, editor of Health Systems (Palgrave Macmillan) and Director of Health Modelling Centre Cymru.

Research group

Administrative duties

  • Deputy Head of School
  • Head of the Operational Research Group
  • Director for Engagement
  • Director of Postgradute Taught Studies
  • Director, Health Modelling Centre Cymru (hmc²)
  • Member of School Research Committee
  • Member of School Learning and Teaching Committe

    Cyhoeddiad

    2023

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    2005

    2004

    2003

    2002

    Articles

    Book sections

    • Ansah, J. P., Koh, V., Bayer, S., Harper, P. R. and Matchar, D. 2018. Healthcare human resource planning. In: Kahraman, C. and Topcu, Y. I. eds. Operations Research Applications in Health Care Management., Vol. 262. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 515-541., (10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_20)
    • Sadsad, R., McDonnell, G., Viana, J., Desai, S., Harper, P. R. and Brailsford, S. 2014. Hybrid modelling case studies. In: Brailsford, S., Churilov, L. and Dangerfield, B. eds. Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics for Management Decision Making. Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science Wiley, pp. 295-317., (10.1002/9781118762745.ch14)

    Books

    Conferences

    Ymchwil

    Research interests

    • Queueing theory, game theory and simulation methods
    • Mathematical modelling of healthcare systems
    • Mathematical modelling for the prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases
    • Data mining techniques

    Research group

    Research impact

    The majority of my research has direct impact on healthcare services and public health policy.  My work, and that of colleagues, is helping to transform the efficiency and effectiveness of NHS care delivery through mathematical modelling, resulting in radically improved healthcare systems at policy, commissioning and operational levels.   The underpinning research captures the dynamic and stochastic nature of healthcare processes, which translates into the delivery of user-friendly tools for use by NHS staff themselves to better operate and deploy resources.  Recently funding by Anuerin Bevan University Health Board has led to the establishment of a mathematical modelling unit; the largest of it's kind in the UK between an Operational Research group and the NHS.

    Particular research contributions include stochastic models for integrated healthcare resource systems (hospital bed capacities, theatre scheduling and workforce planning), novel research on stochastic facility location problems, multi-level simulation, research at the intersection of game theory and queueing theory, conditional phase-type modelling and combined data mining and simulation methodologies.

    I am an Editor-in-Chief of Health Systems (Palgrave) and Director of hmc2, a pan-Wales centre bringing together research expertise in mathematical and computational modelling applied to health.  I have won the OR Society's Goodeve Medal for the best paper published in the Journal of the Operational Research Society, and given numerous plenaries and chaired various conferencesincluding OR50 and the 2011 ORAHS International conference (http://mathsevents.cf.ac.uk/orahs2011/)

    Please refer to my personal website for further details including research papers, grant awards, and resources such as videos of my research talks.

    • Named investigator on £5.5m of funded research grants; author of more than 70 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters.
    • Twice winner of the Cardiff University Innovation and Impact Prize: 2011 (in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics) and 2015 (in collaboration with the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board).
    • Editor-in-Chief of Health Systems (Palgrave Macmillan)
    • Winner of Operational Research Society’s Goodeve Medal (2006) for the best paper published in the Journal of the Operational Research Society.
    • Winner of the 2006 University of Southampton Vice-Chancellor’s teaching award in “recognition of outstanding contribution to teaching practice and innovation”.

    Addysgu

    I teach the following modules:

    • MAT001 – OR Methods
    • MAT003 – Communicating and Research Skills
    • MA0261 – Operational Research
    • MAT009 – Healthcare Modelling

    PhD students

    Current

    • Sarie Brice (with Doris Behrens)
    • Geraint Palmer (with Vincent Knight)
    • Isabelle Percy (with Alex Balinsky)
    • Mark Tuson (with Doris Behrens)

    Completed

    • Elizabeth Rowse (2015): Robust Optimisation of Operating Theatre Schedules
    • Robert Shone (2014): Optimal Control of Queueing Systems with Multiple Heterogeneous Facilities
    • Angelico Fetta (2014):  Modelling Adolescent Smoking Behaviours with Social Network Analysis
    • Marion Penn (2014): Developing a Multi-Methodological Approach to Hospital Operating Theatre Scheduling
    • Leanne Smith (2013): Modelling Emergency Medical Services
    • Julie Vile (2013): Time-Dependent Stochastic Modelling for Predicting Demand and Scheduling of Emergency Medical Services
    • Joe Viana (2011): The Development of a Combined Simulation Approach in a Sexual Health Context: Combining Discrete Event and System Dynamics Simulation to Form a Composite Model.
    • Shivam Desai (2011): Modelling Social Care Needs of Older People in Hampshire
    • Dileep Da Silva (2011):  Dental Public Health Needs for Sri Lanka.
    • Michael Thorwarth (2011): A Simulation-based Decision Support Model to improve Healthcare Facilities Performance – elaborated on an Irish Emergency Department
    • Evandro Leite (2009): Decision Trees
    • Honora Smith (2008): Locating Sustainable Community Health Facilities.
    • Jennifer Sykes (2007): Healthcare Behavioural Modelling
    • Naomi Powell (2006): Simulation and Optimisation of Healthcare Workforce Needs.

    Bywgraffiad

    Appointments

    • 2015: Director of Postgraduate Taught Studies
    • 2013: Deputy Head of School (School of Mathematics, Cardiff University)
    • 2011: Editor-in-Chief, Health Systems (Palgrave Macmillan)
    • 2011: Director of Engagement, School of Mathematics
    • 2010: Director, hmc² (Health Modelling Centre Cymru)
    • 2009: Head of the Operational Research Group, Cardiff University
    • 2008: Cluster leader for Operational Research and Statistics, WIMCS.
    • 2007: WIMCS Research Chair in Operational Research, Cardiff University
    • 2006 - 07: Senior Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
    • 2001 - 06: Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
    • 1997 - 02: Research Fellow, Institute of Modelling for Healthcare, University of Southampton

    Qualifications

    • 2005: PG Certificate in Education, University of Southampton
    • 2002: Ph.D. Mathematics, University of Southampton
    • 1996: M.Sc. Operational Research, University of Southampton
    • 1995: B.Sc. Mathematics and Statistics, University of Bath

    Honours and awards

    • Named investigator on £5.5m of funded research grants; author of more than 70 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters.
    • Twice winner of the Cardiff University Innovation and Impact Prize: 2011 (in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics) and 2015 (in collaboration with the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board).
    • Editor-in-Chief of Health Systems (Palgrave Macmillan)
    • Winner of Operational Research Society’s Goodeve Medal (2006) for the best paper published in the Journal of the Operational Research Society.
    • Winner of the 2006 University of Southampton Vice-Chancellor’s teaching award in “recognition of outstanding contribution to teaching practice and innovation”.

    Meysydd goruchwyliaeth

    Myfyrwyr PhD

    Cerrynt

    • Matthew Howells (gwobr CASE EPSRC gyda Bwrdd Iechyd Prifysgol Caerdydd a'r Fro)
    • Charlotte Marshall (gwobr EPSRC CASE gyda Tec Cymru)
    • Michalis Panayides (ariannwyd gan y sefydliad hwn)
    • John Threfall (gyda Bwrdd Iechyd Prifysgol Aneurin Bevan / KESS2 wedi'i ariannu)
    • Elizabeth Williams (gyda Bwrdd Iechyd Prifysgol Aneurin Bevan / KESS2 wedi'i ariannu)

    Cwblhau

    • Emily Williams (2022): Modelu mathemategol i gefnogi casglu gwaed ar gyfer Gwasanaeth Gwaed Cymru.
    • Emma Aspland (2021): Efelychu a Modelu Smart ar gyfer Systemau Canser Cymhleth
    • Sarie Brice (2019): Llwybrau Dilyniant a Thriniaeth Clefydau Modelu ar gyfer Iselder
    • Mark Tuson (2019): Deall Effaith Rhwydweithiau Cymdeithasol ar Ymlediad Gordewdra
    • Geraint Palmer (2017): Modelu Deadlock mewn Systemau Ciwio
    • Elizabeth Rowse (2015): Optimeiddio Atodlenni Theatr Weithredol Gadarn
    • Robert Shone (2014): Rheoli Systemau Ciwio Gorau gyda Chyfleusterau Heterogenaidd Lluosog
    • Angelico Fetta (2014):  Modelu Ymddygiad Smygu Pobl Ifanc gyda Dadansoddiad Rhwydwaith Cymdeithasol
    • Marion Penn (2014): Datblygu Dull Aml-Fethodolegol o amserlennu theatr llawdriniaethau ysbytai
    • Leanne Smith (2013): Modelu Gwasanaethau Meddygol Brys
    • Julie Vile (2013): Modelu stocastig sy'n ddibynnol ar amser ar gyfer rhagweld galw ac amserlennu'r gwasanaethau meddygol brys
    • Joe Viana (2011): Datblygu dull efelychu cyfunol mewn cyd-destun iechyd rhywiol: cyfuno digwyddiad gwahaniaethol ac efelychiad deinameg system i ffurfio model cyfansawdd.
    • Shivam Desai (2011): Modelu Anghenion Gofal Cymdeithasol Pobl Hŷn yn Hampshire
    • Dileep Da Silva (2011):  Anghenion Iechyd Cyhoeddus Deintyddol ar gyfer Sri Lanka.
    • Michael Thorwarth (2011): Model Cymorth Penderfyniad ar sail Efelychiad i wella Perfformiad Cyfleusterau Gofal Iechyd – ymhelaethu ar Adran Achosion Brys Iwerddon
    • Evandro Leite (2009): Coed Penderfyniad
    • Honora Smith (2008): Lleoli Cyfleusterau Iechyd Cymunedol Cynaliadwy.
    • Jennifer Sykes (2007): Modelu Ymddygiad Gofal Iechyd
    • Naomi Powell (2006): Efelychu ac Optimeiddio Anghenion y Gweithlu Gofal Iechyd.