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Professor Paul Harper
- Media commentator
- Available for postgraduate supervision
Teams and roles for Paul Harper
Professor of Operational Research
Overview
My research interests are in stochastic Operational Research (OR), including: queueing theory, simulation methods, optimisation and game theory; mathematical modelling of healthcare systems; prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases; stochastic methods for healthcare resources planning and management; machine learning approaches.
Author of more than 130 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters, I have been a named investigator on more than £18M of funded research grants, have supervised to successful completion 23 PhD students to-date and was a founding editor-in-chief of the international journal Health Systems (Taylor & Francis).
I am an elected Fellow of the Learned Society of Wales (FLSW), recipient of the Companion of OR Award and the Lyn Thomas Impact Medal (The OR Society) and a Times Higher Education award for ‘Outstanding Contribution to Innovation and Technology, and was a REF2021 sub-panel member (assessment phase) for Mathematical Sciences.
Amongst other currently funded research projects, I am a co-investigator on the LEAP Digital Health Hub, helping to cultivate a multidisciplinary, entrepreneurial, cross-sector Digital Health community across the South West and Wales (funded by EPSRC, £3.26M, EP/X031349/1).
Please also see: Saving lives with maths and Meet our innovators.
Publication
2025
- Beliën, J. et al., 2025. Fifty years of operational research applied to healthcare. European Journal of Operational Research 326 (2), pp.189-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2024.12.040)
- Brice, S. N. et al. 2025. Survey of ambulance usage by patients in metropolitan and provincial cities in Indonesia for Emergency Medical Services utilization. International Journal of Emergency Services (10.1108/IJES-02-2024-0010)
- Harper, P. et al. 2025. Transforming emergency and urgent care services with mathematical modelling. In: Aston, P. ed. More UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Vol. 42, Mathematics in Industry Cham, Switzerland: Springer. , pp.131-137. (10.1007/978-3-031-48683-8_17)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2025. On the optimisation of heterogeneous ambulance fleet allocations. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 36 (4), pp.691-726. (10.1093/imaman/dpaf027)
- Williams, E. H. et al. 2025. A systematic review of operational research modelling for alcohol consumption and its consequences. Health Systems (10.1080/20476965.2025.2523751)
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2025. Predictive and prescriptive analytics for multi-site modelling of frail and elderly patient services. Journal of the Operational Research Society (10.1080/01605682.2025.2487650)
2024
- Brice, S. et al. 2024. Close-up on ambulance service estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo simulation study. Interactive Journal of Medical Research 13 e54240. (10.2196/54240)
- Grange, H. et al., 2024. Capacity planning of virtual wards for frail and elderly patients. Healthcare 12 (5) 533. (10.3390/healthcare12050533)
- Howells, M. et al. 2024. Fractured systems: a literature review of OR/MS methods applied to orthopaedic care settings and treatments. Health Systems 13 (3), pp.151-176. (10.1080/20476965.2023.2264348)
- Musa, C. et al., 2024. Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: Utilization, privatization, and specialization. Journal of International Oral Health 16 (5), pp.403-413. (10.4103/jioh.jioh_133_24)
- Musa, M. F. C. et al., 2024. Modelling the future Malaysian clinician dental workforce using system dynamics. Malaysian Journal of Medicine and Health Sciences 20 (2), pp.122-132. (10.47836/mjmhs.20.2.17)
2023
- Bannister, C. et al. 2023. Time to complete contemporary dental procedures – estimates from a cross-sectional survey of the dental team. BMC Oral Health 23 926. (10.1186/s12903-023-03671-y)
- Behrens, D. A. et al. 2023. Still looking in the wrong place: literature-based evidence of why patients really attend an emergency department. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 90 101707. (10.1016/j.seps.2023.101707)
- Brice, S. N. et al. 2023. Modeling disease progression and treatment pathways for depression jointly using agent based modeling and system dynamics. Frontiers in Public Health 10 1011104. (10.3389/fpubh.2022.1011104)
- England, T. et al. 2023. Modelling lung cancer diagnostic pathways using discrete event simulation. Journal of Simulation 17 (1), pp.94-104. (10.1080/17477778.2021.1956866)
- Panayides, M. , Knight, V. and Harper, P. 2023. A game theoretic model of the behavioural gaming that takes place at the EMS - ED interface. European Journal of Operational Research 305 (3), pp.1236-1258. (10.1016/j.ejor.2022.07.001)
- Tuson, M. et al. 2023. Understanding the impact of social networks on the spread of obesity. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20 (15) 6451. (10.3390/ijerph20156451)
2022
- Brice, S. et al. 2022. Emergency services utilization in Jakarta (Indonesia): A cross-sectional study of patients attending hospital emergency departments. BMC Health Services Research 22 639. (10.1186/s12913-022-08061-8)
- Cope, A. L. et al. 2022. The development and application of a chairside oral health risk and need stratification tool in general dental services. Journal of Dentistry 123 104206. (10.1016/j.jdent.2022.104206)
- Gartner, D. et al. 2022. Evaluation of participants’ reaction and learning in a taught analytics and modelling academy program in U.K.’s National Health Service. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022.
- Gartner, D. , Williams, E. M. and Harper, P. R. 2022. Prescriptive healthcare analytics: a tutorial on discrete optimization and simulation. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics. IEEE. , pp.1-3. (10.1109/ICHI54592.2022.00111)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2022. Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation. Health Systems 11 (2), pp.109-125. (10.1080/20476965.2021.1906764)
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2022. Linking predictive and prescriptive analytics of elderly and frail patient hospital services. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022. 2022 IEEE 10th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI). , pp.1-1. (10.1109/ICHI54592.2022.00071)
2021
- Arruda, E. et al., 2021. Resource optimisation for cancer pathways with aggregate diagnostic demand: a perishable inventory approach. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32 (2), pp.221-236. (10.1093/imaman/dpaa014)
- Aspland, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. Clinical pathway modelling: A literature review. Health Systems 10 (1), pp.1-23. (10.1080/20476965.2019.1652547)
- Aspland, E. et al. 2021. Modified Needleman-Wunsch algorithm for clinical pathway clustering. Journal of Biomedical Informatics 115 103668. (10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103668)
- Brice, S. et al. 2021. Factors influencing the delivery of cancer pathways: a summary of the literature. Journal of Health Organization and Management 35 (9), pp.121-139. (10.1108/JHOM-05-2020-0192)
- England, T. et al. 2021. Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study. Journal of Simulation 15 (4), pp.261-272. (10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434)
- England, T. et al. 2021. Examining the diagnostic pathway for lung cancer patients in Wales using discrete event simulation. Translational Lung Cancer Research 10 (3), pp.1368-1382. (10.21037/tlcr-20-919)
- Ghotane, S. G. et al., 2021. Needs-led human resource planning for Sierra Leone in support of oral health. Human Resources for Health 19 (1) 106. (10.1186/s12960-021-00623-x)
- Harper, P. , Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2021. Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. Health Systems 10 (1), pp.31-40. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1857214)
- Kheiri, A. et al., 2021. Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques. Health Systems 10 (4), pp.286-297. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530)
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. A survey of OR/MS models on care planning for frail and elderly patients. Operations Research for Health Care 31 100325. (10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100325)
2020
- Brailsford, S. et al., 2020. Special issue on healthcare behavioural OR [Editorial]. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1053-1054. (10.1080/01605682.2020.1766848)
- Harper, P. 2020. Healthy O.R. in Wales. Impact 2020 (2), pp.28-32. (10.1080/2058802X.2020.1768684)
- Harper, P. , Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2020. Secondary household Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. n/a
- Harper, P. R. 2020. Server behaviours in healthcare queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1124-1136. (10.1080/01605682.2019.1567653)
- Kunc, M. , Harper, P. and Katsikopoulos, K. 2020. A review of implementation of behavioural aspects in the application of OR in healthcare. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1055-1072. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1489355)
- Lynam, A. et al., 2020. A Monte Carlo simulation model for evaluating the effectiveness of Interventions along the ‘Diabesity’ pathway. Presented at: 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2020) Virtual 30 November - 3 December 2020. Proceedings of the 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics.
- Shone, R. , Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2020. A conservative index heuristic for routing problems with multiple heterogeneous service facilities. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 92 , pp.511-543. (10.1007/s00186-020-00722-w)
- Williams, E. , Harper, P. and Gartner, D. 2020. Modelling of the collections process in the blood supply chain: a literature review. IISE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineering 10 (3), pp.200-211. (10.1080/24725579.2020.1776426)
2019
- Morgan, J. et al. 2019. Determining patient outcomes from patient letters: A comparison of text analysis approaches. Journal of the Operational Research Society 70 (9), pp.1425-1439. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1506559)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2019. Ciw: An open-source discrete event simulation library. Journal of Simulation 13 (1), pp.68-82. (10.1080/17477778.2018.1473909)
- Rauner, M. S. et al., 2019. A decision support system for prevention and costing of occupational injuries. International Journal of Decision Support Systems 4 (1)(10.1504/IJDSS.2019.103638)
2018
- Ansah, J. P. et al., 2018. Healthcare human resource planning. In: Kahraman, C. and Topcu, Y. I. eds. Operations Research Applications in Health Care Management. Vol. 262, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Kluwer Academic Publishers. , pp.515-541. (10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_20)
- Fetta, A. et al., 2018. Predicting adolescent social networks to stop smoking in secondary schools. European Journal of Operational Research 265 (1), pp.263-276. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.039)
- Palmer, G. I. , Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2018. Modelling deadlock in open restricted queueing networks. European Journal of Operational Research 266 (2), pp.609-621. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.10.039)
2017
- Arzpayma, P. et al., 2017. Creation and assessment of a computerized modelling tool for optimizing planning of home and hospital-based phototherapy. British Journal of Dermatology 176 (5), pp.1390-1391. (10.1111/bjd.14994)
- Mayor, S. et al. 2017. Measuring harm and informing quality improvement in the Welsh NHS: the longitudinal Welsh national adverse events study. Health Services and Delivery Research 5 (9)(10.3310/hsdr05090)
- Penn, M. L. , Potts, C. N. and Harper, P. R. 2017. Multiple criteria mixed-integer programming for incorporating multiple factors into the development of master operating theatre timetables. European Journal of Operational Research 262 (1), pp.194-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.065)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2017. A queueing theoretic approach to set staffing levels in time-dependent dual-class service systems. Decision Sciences 48 (4), pp.766-794. (10.1111/deci.12236)
2016
- Shone, R. et al. 2016. Containment of socially optimal policies in multiple-facility Markovian queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 67 (4), pp.629-643. (10.1057/jors.2015.98)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2016. Time-dependent stochastic methods for managing and scheduling Emergency Medical Services. Operations Research for Health Care 8 , pp.42-52. (10.1016/j.orhc.2015.07.002)
2015
- Putman, K. et al., 2015. Modelling of psoriasis patient flows for the reconfiguration of secondary care services and treatments. Health Systems (10.1057/hs.2015.4)
- Rowse, E. L. et al. 2015. Applying set partitioning methods in the construction of operating theatre schedules. Presented at: International Conference on Theory and Practice in Modern Computing 2015 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain 22-24 July 2015.
- Smith, H. K. and Harper, P. R. 2015. Can you model growth of trust? A study of the sustainability of a rural community health centre in North India. Journal of Simulation 9 (2), pp.170-181. (10.1057/jos.2014.31)
- Wanyonyi, K. L. et al., 2015. Alternative scenarios: harnessing mid-level providers and evidence-based practice in primary dental care in England through operational research. Human Resources for Health 13 (1), pp.78. (10.1186/s12960-015-0072-9)
- Young, T. et al., 2015. Improving the NHS demands more than just extra money [Letter]. BMJ 350 (jun24), pp.h3338. (10.1136/bmj.h3338)
2014
- Sadsad, R. et al., 2014. Hybrid modelling case studies. In: Brailsford, S. , Churilov, L. and Dangerfield, B. eds. Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics for Management Decision Making. Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science Wiley. , pp.295-317. (10.1002/9781118762745.ch14)
- Sahu, S. K. et al., 2014. A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 177 (1), pp.39-61. (10.1111/rssa.12008)
- Viana, J. et al., 2014. Combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics in a healthcare setting: a composite model for Chlamydia infection. European Journal of Operational Research 237 (1), pp.196-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.052)
2013
- Gallagher, J. E. , Lim, Z. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Workforce skill mix: modelling the potential for dental therapists in state-funded primary dental care. International Dental Journal 63 (2), pp.57-64. (10.1111/idj.12006)
- Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Selfish routing in public services. European Journal of Operational Research 230 (1), pp.122-132. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.04.003)
- Mustafee, N. et al., 2013. Cost-effective workforce planning: optimising the dental team skill-mix for England. Journal of Enterprise Information Management 26 (1/2), pp.91-108. (10.1108/17410391311289569)
- Smith, H. K. , Harper, P. R. and Potts, C. N. 2013. Bicriteria efficiency/equity hierarchical location models for public service application. Journal of the Operational Research Society 64 (4), pp.500-512. (10.1057/jors.2012.68)
- Vile, J. et al. 2013. Integrating demand forecasting and workforce planning strategies for emergency medical services. Presented at: Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS) Istanbul, Turkey July 2013.
2012
- Brailsford, S. C. , Harper, P. R. and Sykes, J. 2012. Incorporating human behaviour in simulation models of screening for breast cancer. European Journal of Operational Research 219 (3), pp.491-507. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.041)
- Fetta, A. G. et al. 2012. On the Peter Principle: An agent based investigation into the consequential effects of social networks and behavioural factors. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 391 (9), pp.2898-2910. (10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.053)
- Harper, P. R. , Knight, V. A. and Marshall, A. H. 2012. Discrete conditional phase-type models utilising classification trees: application to modelling health service capacities. European Journal of Operational Research 219 (3), pp.522-530. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.035)
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2012. MetSim: A simulation support tool using meteorological information to improve the planning and management of hospital services. Presented at: ORAHS 2012 - High Tech - Human Touch: 38th annual meeting of the EURO working group on OR Applied to Health Services Twente University, Enschede, Netherlands 15-20 July 2012.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2012. MetSim: A simulation decision support tool using meteorological information for short-term planning of hospital services. Presented at: SIMULTECH 2012 - 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications Rome, Italy 28-31 July 2012. IMULTECH 2012 - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, Rome, Italy, 28 - 31 July, 2012.. SciTePress. , pp.543-547.
- Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2012. Modelling emergency medical services with phase-type distributions. Health Systems 1 (1), pp.58-68. (10.1057/hs.2012.1)
- Knight, V. A. , Harper, P. R. and Smith, L. 2012. Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures. OMEGA -The International Journal of Management Science. 40 (6), pp.918-926. (10.1016/j.omega.2012.02.003)
- Rowse, E. L. et al. 2012. Optimising the use of resources within the district nursing service: A case study. Health Systems 2 (1), pp.43-52. (10.1057/hs.2012.22)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2012. Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society 63 , pp.1556-1565. (10.1057/jors.2011.160)
2011
- Bolt, T. et al., 2011. Overcoming the barriers: a qualitative study of simulation adoption in the NHS. Journal of the Operational Research Society (10.1057/jors.2011.130)
- Harper, P. R. 2011. Hospital operating theatre scheduling - advanced booking of individual patients. Presented at: 37th ORAHS Conference, Cardiff, July 2011 - Operational Research Informing National Health Policy Cardiff, Wales, UK 24-29 July 2011.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2011. Operational research informing national health policy. Cardiff University.
- Jun, G. T. et al., 2011. Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods. BMC Health Services Research 11 (1) 108. (10.1186/1472-6963-11-108)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2011. Tumour doubling times and the length bias in breast cancer screening programmes. Health Care Management Science 14 (2), pp.203-211. (10.1007/s10729-011-9156-9)
2010
- Gallagher, J. E. , Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208 (3) E6. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.106)
- Gallagher, J. E. , Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Summary of: Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208 (3), pp.116-117. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.132)
- Harper, P. R. 2010. Developing a multi-methodology operating theatre scheduling support system. Presented at: IMA Sixth International Conference on Quantitative Modelling in the Management of Health Care London, UK 29-31 March 2010.
- Jahangirian, M. et al., 2010. Simulation in health-care: lessons from other sectors. Operational Research 12 (1), pp.45-55. (10.1007/s12351-010-0089-8)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2010. Small world network models of the dynamics of HIV infection. Annals of Operations Research 178 (1), pp.173-200. (10.1007/s10479-009-0571-y)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2010. Forecasting Welsh ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Presented at: 36th International ORAHS conference Genova, Italy 18-23 July 2010. Published in: Testi, A. ed. Operations Research for Patient-Centered Health Care Delivery: Proceedings of the XXXVI International ORAHS Conference. Economia Vol. 5. Milan: Franco Angeli. , pp.196-208.
2009
- Arisha, A. , Thorwarth, M. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Simulation model to investigate flexible workload management for healthcare and servicescape environment. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference Washington, USA December 2009.
- Brailsford, S. C. et al., 2009. An analysis of the academic literature on simulation and modelling in health care. Journal of Simulation 3 (3), pp.130-140. (10.1057/jos.2009.10)
- Harper, P. R. 2009. Location modelling for community healthcare facilities. Presented at: 33rd International Conference of Operational Research Applied to Health Services St Etienne, France 15-20 July 2009.
- Harper, P. R. , Powell, N. H. and Williams, J. E. 2009. Modelling the size and skill-mix of hospital nursing teams. Journal of the Operational Research Society 61 (5), pp.768-779. (10.1057/jors.2009.43)
- Kleinman, E. R. , Harper, P. R. and Gallagher, J. E. 2009. Trends in NHS primary dental care for older people in England: implications for the future. Gerodontology 26 (3), pp.193-201. (10.1111/j.1741-2358.2008.00260.x)
- Smith, H. K. et al., 2009. Planning sustainable community health schemes in rural areas of developing countries. European Journal of Operational Research 193 (3), pp.768-777. (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.07.031)
- Smith, H. K. , Laporte, G. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Locational analysis: highlights of growth to maturity. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60 , pp.S140-S148. (10.1057/jors.2008.172)
2008
- Harper, P. R. and Leite Jr., E. 2008. TreeWorks: Advances in Scalable Decision Trees. International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics (IJHISI) 3 (4), pp.53-68. (10.4018/jhisi.2008100104)
2007
- Brailsford, S. C. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Editorial - Special issue: Operational research in health. Journal of the Operational Research Society 58 (2), pp.141-144. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602267)
- Brailsford, S. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Operational research for health policy: Making better decisions. Peter Lang.
- Harper, P. R. 2007. Simulation modelling of a major accident and emergency department in Rome. Presented at: 31st Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Southampton, UK July 2007.
2006
- Brailsford, S. C. , Sykes, J. and Harper, P. R. 2006. Incorporating human behavior in healthcare simulation models. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06) Monterey, CA, USA 3-6 December 2006. Published in: Perrone, L. F. et al., Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06). Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE. , pp.466-472. (10.1109/WSC.2006.323117)
- Evenden, D. et al., 2006. Improving the cost-effectiveness of Chlamydia screening with targeted screening strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57 (12), pp.1400-1412. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602134)
- Harper, P. 2006. Modelling for the reprovision and redesign of intermediate care services in the UK - a local example. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Stockholm, Sweden July 2006.
- Harper, P. R. 2006. Combined geomapping, statistical risk grouping and computer simulation for modelling chlamydia infection dynamics and screening strategies. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Stockholm, Sweden July 2006.
- Harper, P. R. and Winslett, D. J. 2006. Classification trees: A possible method for maternity risk grouping. European Journal of Operational Research 169 (1), pp.146-156. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.014)
2005
- Evenden, D. et al., 2005. System Dynamics modeling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost-benefit estimation. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 16 (3), pp.265-279. (10.1093/imaman/dpi022)
- Harper, P. R. 2005. A review and comparison of classification algorithms for medical decision making. Health Policy 71 (3), pp.315-331. (10.1016/j.healthpol.2004.05.002)
- Harper, P. R. 2005. Combining data mining tools with health care models for improved understanding of health processes and resource utilisation. Clinical and Investigative Medicine 28 (6), pp.338-341.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2005. A genetic algorithm for the project assignment problem. Computers & Operations Research 32 (5), pp.1255-1265. (10.1016/j.cor.2003.11.003)
- Harper, P. R. and Jones, S. K. 2005. Mathematical models for the early detection and treatment of colorectal cancer. Health Care Management Science 8 (2), pp.101-109. (10.1007/s10729-005-0393-7)
- Harper, P. R. , Phillips, S. and Gallagher, J. E. 2005. Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London. Journal of the Operational Research Society 56 (2), pp.134-143. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601898)
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2005. Planning health services with explicit geographical considerations: a stochastic location-allocation approach. OMEGA - The International Journal of Management Science 33 (2), pp.141-152. (10.1016/j.omega.2004.03.011)
- Rauner, M. , Harper, P. R. and Schwartz, B. 2005. Economic impact of occupational injuries: resource allocation for prevention programs. Central European Journal of Operations Research , pp.393-424.
2004
- Ball, C. et al., 2004. Moving on from 'patient dependency' and 'nursing workload' to managing risk in critical care. Intensive and Critical Care Nursing 20 (2), pp.62-68. (10.1016/j.iccn.2004.02.001)
- Harper, P. R. and Pitt, M. A. 2004. On the challenges of healthcare modelling and a proposed project life cycle for successful implementation. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (6), pp.657-661. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601719)
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2004. Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (5), pp.529-534. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601644)
2003
- Costa, A. X. et al., 2003. Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity. Anaesthesia 58 (4), pp.320-327. (10.1046/j.1365-2044.2003.03042.x)
- Harper, P. H. et al. 2003. A systems modelling approach for the prevention and treatment of diabetic retinopathy. European Journal of Operational Research 150 (1), pp.81-91. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00787-7)
- Harper, P. R. and Gamlin, H. M. 2003. Reduced outpatient waiting times with improved appointment scheduling: a simulation modelling approach. OR Spectrum 25 (2), pp.207-222. (10.1007/s00291-003-0122-x)
- Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2003. A decision support system for the care of HIV and AIDS patients in India. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (1), pp.187-197. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00270-9)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2003. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 54 (7), pp.713-722. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601566)
2002
- Harper, P. R. 2002. A framework for operational modelling of hospital resources. Health Care Management Science 5 , pp.165-173. (10.1023/A:1019767900627)
- Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2002. Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals. Journal of the Operational Research Society 53 (1), pp.11-18. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601278)
Articles
- Arruda, E. et al., 2021. Resource optimisation for cancer pathways with aggregate diagnostic demand: a perishable inventory approach. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32 (2), pp.221-236. (10.1093/imaman/dpaa014)
- Arzpayma, P. et al., 2017. Creation and assessment of a computerized modelling tool for optimizing planning of home and hospital-based phototherapy. British Journal of Dermatology 176 (5), pp.1390-1391. (10.1111/bjd.14994)
- Aspland, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. Clinical pathway modelling: A literature review. Health Systems 10 (1), pp.1-23. (10.1080/20476965.2019.1652547)
- Aspland, E. et al. 2021. Modified Needleman-Wunsch algorithm for clinical pathway clustering. Journal of Biomedical Informatics 115 103668. (10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103668)
- Ball, C. et al., 2004. Moving on from 'patient dependency' and 'nursing workload' to managing risk in critical care. Intensive and Critical Care Nursing 20 (2), pp.62-68. (10.1016/j.iccn.2004.02.001)
- Bannister, C. et al. 2023. Time to complete contemporary dental procedures – estimates from a cross-sectional survey of the dental team. BMC Oral Health 23 926. (10.1186/s12903-023-03671-y)
- Behrens, D. A. et al. 2023. Still looking in the wrong place: literature-based evidence of why patients really attend an emergency department. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 90 101707. (10.1016/j.seps.2023.101707)
- Beliën, J. et al., 2025. Fifty years of operational research applied to healthcare. European Journal of Operational Research 326 (2), pp.189-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2024.12.040)
- Bolt, T. et al., 2011. Overcoming the barriers: a qualitative study of simulation adoption in the NHS. Journal of the Operational Research Society (10.1057/jors.2011.130)
- Brailsford, S. C. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Editorial - Special issue: Operational research in health. Journal of the Operational Research Society 58 (2), pp.141-144. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602267)
- Brailsford, S. C. et al., 2009. An analysis of the academic literature on simulation and modelling in health care. Journal of Simulation 3 (3), pp.130-140. (10.1057/jos.2009.10)
- Brailsford, S. C. , Harper, P. R. and Sykes, J. 2012. Incorporating human behaviour in simulation models of screening for breast cancer. European Journal of Operational Research 219 (3), pp.491-507. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.041)
- Brailsford, S. et al., 2020. Special issue on healthcare behavioural OR [Editorial]. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1053-1054. (10.1080/01605682.2020.1766848)
- Brice, S. et al. 2022. Emergency services utilization in Jakarta (Indonesia): A cross-sectional study of patients attending hospital emergency departments. BMC Health Services Research 22 639. (10.1186/s12913-022-08061-8)
- Brice, S. et al. 2024. Close-up on ambulance service estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo simulation study. Interactive Journal of Medical Research 13 e54240. (10.2196/54240)
- Brice, S. et al. 2021. Factors influencing the delivery of cancer pathways: a summary of the literature. Journal of Health Organization and Management 35 (9), pp.121-139. (10.1108/JHOM-05-2020-0192)
- Brice, S. N. et al. 2023. Modeling disease progression and treatment pathways for depression jointly using agent based modeling and system dynamics. Frontiers in Public Health 10 1011104. (10.3389/fpubh.2022.1011104)
- Brice, S. N. et al. 2025. Survey of ambulance usage by patients in metropolitan and provincial cities in Indonesia for Emergency Medical Services utilization. International Journal of Emergency Services (10.1108/IJES-02-2024-0010)
- Cope, A. L. et al. 2022. The development and application of a chairside oral health risk and need stratification tool in general dental services. Journal of Dentistry 123 104206. (10.1016/j.jdent.2022.104206)
- Costa, A. X. et al., 2003. Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity. Anaesthesia 58 (4), pp.320-327. (10.1046/j.1365-2044.2003.03042.x)
- England, T. et al. 2021. Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study. Journal of Simulation 15 (4), pp.261-272. (10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434)
- England, T. et al. 2021. Examining the diagnostic pathway for lung cancer patients in Wales using discrete event simulation. Translational Lung Cancer Research 10 (3), pp.1368-1382. (10.21037/tlcr-20-919)
- England, T. et al. 2023. Modelling lung cancer diagnostic pathways using discrete event simulation. Journal of Simulation 17 (1), pp.94-104. (10.1080/17477778.2021.1956866)
- Evenden, D. et al., 2006. Improving the cost-effectiveness of Chlamydia screening with targeted screening strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57 (12), pp.1400-1412. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602134)
- Evenden, D. et al., 2005. System Dynamics modeling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost-benefit estimation. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 16 (3), pp.265-279. (10.1093/imaman/dpi022)
- Fetta, A. et al., 2018. Predicting adolescent social networks to stop smoking in secondary schools. European Journal of Operational Research 265 (1), pp.263-276. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.039)
- Fetta, A. G. et al. 2012. On the Peter Principle: An agent based investigation into the consequential effects of social networks and behavioural factors. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 391 (9), pp.2898-2910. (10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.053)
- Gallagher, J. E. , Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208 (3) E6. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.106)
- Gallagher, J. E. , Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Summary of: Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208 (3), pp.116-117. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.132)
- Gallagher, J. E. , Lim, Z. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Workforce skill mix: modelling the potential for dental therapists in state-funded primary dental care. International Dental Journal 63 (2), pp.57-64. (10.1111/idj.12006)
- Ghotane, S. G. et al., 2021. Needs-led human resource planning for Sierra Leone in support of oral health. Human Resources for Health 19 (1) 106. (10.1186/s12960-021-00623-x)
- Grange, H. et al., 2024. Capacity planning of virtual wards for frail and elderly patients. Healthcare 12 (5) 533. (10.3390/healthcare12050533)
- Harper, P. 2020. Healthy O.R. in Wales. Impact 2020 (2), pp.28-32. (10.1080/2058802X.2020.1768684)
- Harper, P. , Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2021. Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. Health Systems 10 (1), pp.31-40. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1857214)
- Harper, P. , Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2020. Secondary household Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. n/a
- Harper, P. H. et al. 2003. A systems modelling approach for the prevention and treatment of diabetic retinopathy. European Journal of Operational Research 150 (1), pp.81-91. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00787-7)
- Harper, P. R. 2002. A framework for operational modelling of hospital resources. Health Care Management Science 5 , pp.165-173. (10.1023/A:1019767900627)
- Harper, P. R. 2005. A review and comparison of classification algorithms for medical decision making. Health Policy 71 (3), pp.315-331. (10.1016/j.healthpol.2004.05.002)
- Harper, P. R. 2020. Server behaviours in healthcare queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1124-1136. (10.1080/01605682.2019.1567653)
- Harper, P. R. 2005. Combining data mining tools with health care models for improved understanding of health processes and resource utilisation. Clinical and Investigative Medicine 28 (6), pp.338-341.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2005. A genetic algorithm for the project assignment problem. Computers & Operations Research 32 (5), pp.1255-1265. (10.1016/j.cor.2003.11.003)
- Harper, P. R. and Gamlin, H. M. 2003. Reduced outpatient waiting times with improved appointment scheduling: a simulation modelling approach. OR Spectrum 25 (2), pp.207-222. (10.1007/s00291-003-0122-x)
- Harper, P. R. and Jones, S. K. 2005. Mathematical models for the early detection and treatment of colorectal cancer. Health Care Management Science 8 (2), pp.101-109. (10.1007/s10729-005-0393-7)
- Harper, P. R. , Knight, V. A. and Marshall, A. H. 2012. Discrete conditional phase-type models utilising classification trees: application to modelling health service capacities. European Journal of Operational Research 219 (3), pp.522-530. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.035)
- Harper, P. R. and Leite Jr., E. 2008. TreeWorks: Advances in Scalable Decision Trees. International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics (IJHISI) 3 (4), pp.53-68. (10.4018/jhisi.2008100104)
- Harper, P. R. , Phillips, S. and Gallagher, J. E. 2005. Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London. Journal of the Operational Research Society 56 (2), pp.134-143. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601898)
- Harper, P. R. and Pitt, M. A. 2004. On the challenges of healthcare modelling and a proposed project life cycle for successful implementation. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (6), pp.657-661. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601719)
- Harper, P. R. , Powell, N. H. and Williams, J. E. 2009. Modelling the size and skill-mix of hospital nursing teams. Journal of the Operational Research Society 61 (5), pp.768-779. (10.1057/jors.2009.43)
- Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2003. A decision support system for the care of HIV and AIDS patients in India. European Journal of Operational Research 147 (1), pp.187-197. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00270-9)
- Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2002. Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals. Journal of the Operational Research Society 53 (1), pp.11-18. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601278)
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2005. Planning health services with explicit geographical considerations: a stochastic location-allocation approach. OMEGA - The International Journal of Management Science 33 (2), pp.141-152. (10.1016/j.omega.2004.03.011)
- Harper, P. R. and Winslett, D. J. 2006. Classification trees: A possible method for maternity risk grouping. European Journal of Operational Research 169 (1), pp.146-156. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.014)
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2004. Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55 (5), pp.529-534. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601644)
- Howells, M. et al. 2024. Fractured systems: a literature review of OR/MS methods applied to orthopaedic care settings and treatments. Health Systems 13 (3), pp.151-176. (10.1080/20476965.2023.2264348)
- Jahangirian, M. et al., 2010. Simulation in health-care: lessons from other sectors. Operational Research 12 (1), pp.45-55. (10.1007/s12351-010-0089-8)
- Jun, G. T. et al., 2011. Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods. BMC Health Services Research 11 (1) 108. (10.1186/1472-6963-11-108)
- Kheiri, A. et al., 2021. Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques. Health Systems 10 (4), pp.286-297. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530)
- Kleinman, E. R. , Harper, P. R. and Gallagher, J. E. 2009. Trends in NHS primary dental care for older people in England: implications for the future. Gerodontology 26 (3), pp.193-201. (10.1111/j.1741-2358.2008.00260.x)
- Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2012. Modelling emergency medical services with phase-type distributions. Health Systems 1 (1), pp.58-68. (10.1057/hs.2012.1)
- Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Selfish routing in public services. European Journal of Operational Research 230 (1), pp.122-132. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.04.003)
- Knight, V. A. , Harper, P. R. and Smith, L. 2012. Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures. OMEGA -The International Journal of Management Science. 40 (6), pp.918-926. (10.1016/j.omega.2012.02.003)
- Kunc, M. , Harper, P. and Katsikopoulos, K. 2020. A review of implementation of behavioural aspects in the application of OR in healthcare. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71 (7), pp.1055-1072. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1489355)
- Mayor, S. et al. 2017. Measuring harm and informing quality improvement in the Welsh NHS: the longitudinal Welsh national adverse events study. Health Services and Delivery Research 5 (9)(10.3310/hsdr05090)
- Morgan, J. et al. 2019. Determining patient outcomes from patient letters: A comparison of text analysis approaches. Journal of the Operational Research Society 70 (9), pp.1425-1439. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1506559)
- Musa, C. et al., 2024. Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: Utilization, privatization, and specialization. Journal of International Oral Health 16 (5), pp.403-413. (10.4103/jioh.jioh_133_24)
- Musa, M. F. C. et al., 2024. Modelling the future Malaysian clinician dental workforce using system dynamics. Malaysian Journal of Medicine and Health Sciences 20 (2), pp.122-132. (10.47836/mjmhs.20.2.17)
- Mustafee, N. et al., 2013. Cost-effective workforce planning: optimising the dental team skill-mix for England. Journal of Enterprise Information Management 26 (1/2), pp.91-108. (10.1108/17410391311289569)
- Palmer, G. I. , Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2018. Modelling deadlock in open restricted queueing networks. European Journal of Operational Research 266 (2), pp.609-621. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.10.039)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2019. Ciw: An open-source discrete event simulation library. Journal of Simulation 13 (1), pp.68-82. (10.1080/17477778.2018.1473909)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2022. Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation. Health Systems 11 (2), pp.109-125. (10.1080/20476965.2021.1906764)
- Palmer, G. I. et al. 2025. On the optimisation of heterogeneous ambulance fleet allocations. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 36 (4), pp.691-726. (10.1093/imaman/dpaf027)
- Panayides, M. , Knight, V. and Harper, P. 2023. A game theoretic model of the behavioural gaming that takes place at the EMS - ED interface. European Journal of Operational Research 305 (3), pp.1236-1258. (10.1016/j.ejor.2022.07.001)
- Penn, M. L. , Potts, C. N. and Harper, P. R. 2017. Multiple criteria mixed-integer programming for incorporating multiple factors into the development of master operating theatre timetables. European Journal of Operational Research 262 (1), pp.194-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.065)
- Putman, K. et al., 2015. Modelling of psoriasis patient flows for the reconfiguration of secondary care services and treatments. Health Systems (10.1057/hs.2015.4)
- Rauner, M. , Harper, P. R. and Schwartz, B. 2005. Economic impact of occupational injuries: resource allocation for prevention programs. Central European Journal of Operations Research , pp.393-424.
- Rauner, M. S. et al., 2019. A decision support system for prevention and costing of occupational injuries. International Journal of Decision Support Systems 4 (1)(10.1504/IJDSS.2019.103638)
- Rowse, E. L. et al. 2012. Optimising the use of resources within the district nursing service: A case study. Health Systems 2 (1), pp.43-52. (10.1057/hs.2012.22)
- Sahu, S. K. et al., 2014. A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 177 (1), pp.39-61. (10.1111/rssa.12008)
- Shone, R. , Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2020. A conservative index heuristic for routing problems with multiple heterogeneous service facilities. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 92 , pp.511-543. (10.1007/s00186-020-00722-w)
- Shone, R. et al. 2016. Containment of socially optimal policies in multiple-facility Markovian queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 67 (4), pp.629-643. (10.1057/jors.2015.98)
- Smith, H. K. and Harper, P. R. 2015. Can you model growth of trust? A study of the sustainability of a rural community health centre in North India. Journal of Simulation 9 (2), pp.170-181. (10.1057/jos.2014.31)
- Smith, H. K. , Harper, P. R. and Potts, C. N. 2013. Bicriteria efficiency/equity hierarchical location models for public service application. Journal of the Operational Research Society 64 (4), pp.500-512. (10.1057/jors.2012.68)
- Smith, H. K. et al., 2009. Planning sustainable community health schemes in rural areas of developing countries. European Journal of Operational Research 193 (3), pp.768-777. (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.07.031)
- Smith, H. K. , Laporte, G. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Locational analysis: highlights of growth to maturity. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60 , pp.S140-S148. (10.1057/jors.2008.172)
- Tuson, M. et al. 2023. Understanding the impact of social networks on the spread of obesity. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20 (15) 6451. (10.3390/ijerph20156451)
- Viana, J. et al., 2014. Combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics in a healthcare setting: a composite model for Chlamydia infection. European Journal of Operational Research 237 (1), pp.196-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.052)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2010. Small world network models of the dynamics of HIV infection. Annals of Operations Research 178 (1), pp.173-200. (10.1007/s10479-009-0571-y)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2011. Tumour doubling times and the length bias in breast cancer screening programmes. Health Care Management Science 14 (2), pp.203-211. (10.1007/s10729-011-9156-9)
- Vieira, I. T. et al. 2003. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 54 (7), pp.713-722. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601566)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2017. A queueing theoretic approach to set staffing levels in time-dependent dual-class service systems. Decision Sciences 48 (4), pp.766-794. (10.1111/deci.12236)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2012. Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society 63 , pp.1556-1565. (10.1057/jors.2011.160)
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2016. Time-dependent stochastic methods for managing and scheduling Emergency Medical Services. Operations Research for Health Care 8 , pp.42-52. (10.1016/j.orhc.2015.07.002)
- Wanyonyi, K. L. et al., 2015. Alternative scenarios: harnessing mid-level providers and evidence-based practice in primary dental care in England through operational research. Human Resources for Health 13 (1), pp.78. (10.1186/s12960-015-0072-9)
- Williams, E. H. et al. 2025. A systematic review of operational research modelling for alcohol consumption and its consequences. Health Systems (10.1080/20476965.2025.2523751)
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. A survey of OR/MS models on care planning for frail and elderly patients. Operations Research for Health Care 31 100325. (10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100325)
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2025. Predictive and prescriptive analytics for multi-site modelling of frail and elderly patient services. Journal of the Operational Research Society (10.1080/01605682.2025.2487650)
- Williams, E. , Harper, P. and Gartner, D. 2020. Modelling of the collections process in the blood supply chain: a literature review. IISE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineering 10 (3), pp.200-211. (10.1080/24725579.2020.1776426)
- Young, T. et al., 2015. Improving the NHS demands more than just extra money [Letter]. BMJ 350 (jun24), pp.h3338. (10.1136/bmj.h3338)
Book sections
- Ansah, J. P. et al., 2018. Healthcare human resource planning. In: Kahraman, C. and Topcu, Y. I. eds. Operations Research Applications in Health Care Management. Vol. 262, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Kluwer Academic Publishers. , pp.515-541. (10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_20)
- Harper, P. et al. 2025. Transforming emergency and urgent care services with mathematical modelling. In: Aston, P. ed. More UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics. Vol. 42, Mathematics in Industry Cham, Switzerland: Springer. , pp.131-137. (10.1007/978-3-031-48683-8_17)
- Sadsad, R. et al., 2014. Hybrid modelling case studies. In: Brailsford, S. , Churilov, L. and Dangerfield, B. eds. Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics for Management Decision Making. Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science Wiley. , pp.295-317. (10.1002/9781118762745.ch14)
Books
- Brailsford, S. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Operational research for health policy: Making better decisions. Peter Lang.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2011. Operational research informing national health policy. Cardiff University.
Conferences
- Arisha, A. , Thorwarth, M. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Simulation model to investigate flexible workload management for healthcare and servicescape environment. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference Washington, USA December 2009.
- Brailsford, S. C. , Sykes, J. and Harper, P. R. 2006. Incorporating human behavior in healthcare simulation models. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06) Monterey, CA, USA 3-6 December 2006. Published in: Perrone, L. F. et al., Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06). Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE. , pp.466-472. (10.1109/WSC.2006.323117)
- Gartner, D. et al. 2022. Evaluation of participants’ reaction and learning in a taught analytics and modelling academy program in U.K.’s National Health Service. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022.
- Gartner, D. , Williams, E. M. and Harper, P. R. 2022. Prescriptive healthcare analytics: a tutorial on discrete optimization and simulation. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics. IEEE. , pp.1-3. (10.1109/ICHI54592.2022.00111)
- Harper, P. 2006. Modelling for the reprovision and redesign of intermediate care services in the UK - a local example. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Stockholm, Sweden July 2006.
- Harper, P. R. 2006. Combined geomapping, statistical risk grouping and computer simulation for modelling chlamydia infection dynamics and screening strategies. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Stockholm, Sweden July 2006.
- Harper, P. R. 2010. Developing a multi-methodology operating theatre scheduling support system. Presented at: IMA Sixth International Conference on Quantitative Modelling in the Management of Health Care London, UK 29-31 March 2010.
- Harper, P. R. 2011. Hospital operating theatre scheduling - advanced booking of individual patients. Presented at: 37th ORAHS Conference, Cardiff, July 2011 - Operational Research Informing National Health Policy Cardiff, Wales, UK 24-29 July 2011.
- Harper, P. R. 2009. Location modelling for community healthcare facilities. Presented at: 33rd International Conference of Operational Research Applied to Health Services St Etienne, France 15-20 July 2009.
- Harper, P. R. 2007. Simulation modelling of a major accident and emergency department in Rome. Presented at: 31st Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services Southampton, UK July 2007.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2012. MetSim: A simulation support tool using meteorological information to improve the planning and management of hospital services. Presented at: ORAHS 2012 - High Tech - Human Touch: 38th annual meeting of the EURO working group on OR Applied to Health Services Twente University, Enschede, Netherlands 15-20 July 2012.
- Harper, P. R. et al. 2012. MetSim: A simulation decision support tool using meteorological information for short-term planning of hospital services. Presented at: SIMULTECH 2012 - 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications Rome, Italy 28-31 July 2012. IMULTECH 2012 - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, Rome, Italy, 28 - 31 July, 2012.. SciTePress. , pp.543-547.
- Lynam, A. et al., 2020. A Monte Carlo simulation model for evaluating the effectiveness of Interventions along the ‘Diabesity’ pathway. Presented at: 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2020) Virtual 30 November - 3 December 2020. Proceedings of the 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics.
- Rowse, E. L. et al. 2015. Applying set partitioning methods in the construction of operating theatre schedules. Presented at: International Conference on Theory and Practice in Modern Computing 2015 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain 22-24 July 2015.
- Vile, J. et al. 2013. Integrating demand forecasting and workforce planning strategies for emergency medical services. Presented at: Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS) Istanbul, Turkey July 2013.
- Vile, J. L. et al. 2010. Forecasting Welsh ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Presented at: 36th International ORAHS conference Genova, Italy 18-23 July 2010. Published in: Testi, A. ed. Operations Research for Patient-Centered Health Care Delivery: Proceedings of the XXXVI International ORAHS Conference. Economia Vol. 5. Milan: Franco Angeli. , pp.196-208.
- Williams, E. , Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2022. Linking predictive and prescriptive analytics of elderly and frail patient hospital services. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022) Rochester, MN, United States 11-14 June 2022. 2022 IEEE 10th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI). , pp.1-1. (10.1109/ICHI54592.2022.00071)
Research
Research group
My primary research interests are in:
- Stochastic OR, including queueing theory, simulation methods, optimisation, and game theory
- Behavioural OR, with a particluar focus of behaviours in models
- Mathematical modelling of healthcare systems
- Mathematical modelling for the prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases
- Machine learning and data mining techniques
Healthcare systems are typically characterised by complexity, variability, uncertainty and use of scarce resources. To model such systems requires the development of suitable mathematical and simulation models that are able to account for the stochastic conditions, complex and large-scale patient pathways and disease processes, and at both operational and strategic levels. Various novel approaches have been developed by myself and colleagues at Cardiff (and with collaborators worldwide), including those in queueing and game theoretic models (for example time-dependent and priority queues, and routing games), hybrid simulation methodologies (DES, Agent-based, SD, Monte Carlo methods), location theory and optimisation, social network models for disease propagation, and health behavioural models.
Funding has come from many different sources to support my research and translational findings, including EPSRC, The Royal Society, The Leverhulme Trust, Nuffield Foundation, NIHR, ESRC, Health Foundation, the Department of Health, Welsh Government, and various NHS partners.
I was delighted to establish a mathematical modelling unit in collaboration with the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. A team of post-doctoral research associates/fellows, a lecturer in OR, and several PhD students have been funded by ABUHB and they work between the University and Health Board (as researchers -in-residence). In addition Cardiff and Vale University Health Board regularly fund both PhDs and post-docs.
In 2015 the team won a University Innovation award for our research and impact, and a prestigious Times Higher Education award for ‘Outstanding Contribution to Innovation and Technology' and in 2021 the OR Society Lyn Thomas Impact Medal.
My research, and that with many collaborators, has led to sustained impact and significant benefits to the NHS and patient care, resulting in increased efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare systems, and improved outcomes. Projects have included reducing waiting times, reducing elective patient cancellations, ambulance modelling (forecasting demand, location analysis, crew rostering), finding the most effective and equitable locations on for healthcare facilities, advising on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for preventing and screening for disease such as informing policy on cancer, HIV/AIDS and Chlamydia screening.
Please also see Saving lives with maths and Meet our innovators.
Teaching
I teach the following modules:
- MAT021 – Foundations of OR and Analytics
- MAT031 – Further OR
- MAT009/MA4609 – Healthcare Modelling
Biography
Appointments
- 2025 - : Director of Postgraduate Taught Studies
- 2022 - : Cardiff Lead, Wales Data Nation Accelerator (WDNA)
- 2022 - 23: Cardiff University Turing Development Network Lead (Alan Turing Institute)
- 2019 - 22: REF2021 sub-panel member (assessment phase) for Mathematical Sciences.
- 2019 - 22: Academic Chair of the Cardiff University - Office for National Statistics (ONS) Strategic Partnership
- 2009 - : Head of the Operational Research Group, Cardiff University
- 2010 - : Director, hmc² (Health Modelling Centre Cymru)
- 2018 - 22 : Director of the Data Innovation Research Institute
- 2009 - 18 : Director of Postgraduate Taught Studies
- 2013 - 21 : Deputy Head of School (School of Mathematics, Cardiff University)
- 2011 - 21 : Editor-in-Chief, Health Systems (Taylor & Francis)
- 2011 - 21 : Director of Impact & Engagement, School of Mathematics
- 2008 - 12: Cluster leader for Operational Research and Statistics, WIMCS.
- 2007 - 11: WIMCS Research Chair in Operational Research, Cardiff University
- 2006 - 07: Senior Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
- 2001 - 06: Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
- 1997 - 02: Research Fellow, Institute of Modelling for Healthcare, University of Southampton
Qualifications
- 2005: PG Certificate in Education, University of Southampton
- 2002: Ph.D. School of Mathematics, University of Southampton
- 1996: M.Sc. School of Mathematics, University of Southampton
- 1995: B.Sc. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath
Supervisions
PhD students
Current
- Matthew Howells (EPSRC CASE award with Cardiff and Vale University Health Board)
- Charlotte Marshall (EPSRC CASE award with TEC Cymru)
- Elin Williams (Gwent Area Planning Board)
Completed
- Michalis Panayides (2023): Workforce Behaviours in Healthcare Systems
- Elizabeth Williams (2023): Linking Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics for Modelling Healthcare Services for Frail and Elderly Patients
- John Threfall (2023): Development and Benchmarking of a Novel Scatter Search Algorithm for Learning Probabilistic Graphical Models in Healthcare
- Emily Williams (2022): Mathematical Modelling to Support Blood Collection for the Welsh Blood Service
- Emma Aspland (2021): Smart Simulation and Modelling for Complex Cancer Systems
- Luke Smallman (2020): Dimension Reduction for Exponential Family Data with Applications to Text Data
- Sarie Brice (2019): Modelling Disease Progression and Treatment Pathways for Depression
- Mark Tuson (2019): Understanding the Impact of Social Networks on the Spread of Obesity
- Geraint Palmer (2017): Modelling Deadlock in Queueing Systems
- Elizabeth Rowse (2015): Robust Optimisation of Operating Theatre Schedules
- Robert Shone (2014): Optimal Control of Queueing Systems with Multiple Heterogeneous Facilities
- Angelico Fetta (2014): Modelling Adolescent Smoking Behaviours with Social Network Analysis
- Marion Penn (2014): Developing a Multi-Methodological Approach to Hospital Operating Theatre Scheduling
- Leanne Smith (2013): Modelling Emergency Medical Services
- Julie Vile (2013): Time-Dependent Stochastic Modelling for Predicting Demand and Scheduling of Emergency Medical Services
- Joe Viana (2011): The Development of a Combined Simulation Approach in a Sexual Health Context: Combining Discrete Event and System Dynamics Simulation to Form a Composite Model
- Shivam Desai (2011): Modelling Social Care Needs of Older People in Hampshire
- Dileep Da Silva (2011): Dental Public Health Needs for Sri Lanka
- Michael Thorwarth (2011): A Simulation-based Decision Support Model to improve Healthcare Facilities Performance – elaborated on an Irish Emergency Department
- Evandro Leite (2009): Decision Trees
- Honora Smith (2008): Locating Sustainable Community Health Facilities
- Jennifer Sykes (2007): Healthcare Behavioural Modelling
- Naomi Powell (2006): Simulation and Optimisation of Healthcare Workforce Needs
