Professor Paul Harper

Professor of Operational Research

: Media commentator
: Available for postgraduate supervision

My research interests are in stochastic Operational Research (OR), including: queueing theory, simulation methods, optimisation and game theory; mathematical modelling of healthcare systems; prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases; stochastic methods for healthcare resources planning and management; machine learning approaches.

Author of more than 110 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters, I have been a named investigator on £18m of funded research grants, have supervised to successful completion 22 PhD students to-date and was a founding editor-in-chief of the international journal Health Systems (Taylor & Francis).

I am an elected Fellow of the Learned Society of Wales (FLSW), recipient of the Companion of OR Award and the Lyn Thomas Impact Medal (The OR Society) and a Times Higher Education award for ‘Outstanding Contribution to Innovation and Technology, and was a REF2021 sub-panel member (assessment phase) for Mathematical Sciences.

Please also see: Saving lives with maths and Meet our innovators.

Professor Paul Harper's personal website

2024

Brice, S., Boutilier, J., Palmer, G., Harper, P. R., Knight, V., Tuson, M. and Gartner, D. 2024. Close-up on ambulance service estimation in Indonesia: Monte Carlo simulation study. Interactive Journal of Medical Research 13, article number: e54240. (10.2196/54240)
Musa, C., Firdaus, M., Morgan, J., Harper, P., Eduardo, B. and Gallagher, J. E. 2024. Scenario modeling for dentistry in Malaysia: Utilization, privatization, and specialization. Journal of International Oral Health 16(5), pp. 403-413. (10.4103/jioh.jioh_133_24)
Howells, M., Harper, P., Palmer, G. and Gartner, D. 2024. Fractured systems: a literature review of OR/MS methods applied to orthopaedic care settings and treatments. Health Systems 13(3), pp. 151-176. (10.1080/20476965.2023.2264348)
Musa, M. F. C., Morgan, J., Harper, P., Bernabé, E. and Gallagher, J. E. 2024. Modelling the future Malaysian clinician dental workforce using system dynamics. Malaysian Journal of Medicine and Health Sciences 20(2), pp. 122-132. (10.47836/mjmhs.20.2.17)
Grange, H., Johns, G., Ahuja, A., Harper, P., Williams, E. and Gartner, D. 2024. Capacity planning of virtual wards for frail and elderly patients. Healthcare 12(5), article number: 533. (10.3390/healthcare12050533)

2023

Behrens, D. A., Morgan, J. S., Krczal, E., Harper, P. R. and Gartner, D. 2023. Still looking in the wrong place: literature-based evidence of why patients really attend an emergency department. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 90, article number: 101707. (10.1016/j.seps.2023.101707)
Bannister, C. et al. 2023. Time to complete contemporary dental procedures – estimates from a cross-sectional survey of the dental team. BMC Oral Health 23, article number: 926. (10.1186/s12903-023-03671-y)
Tuson, M., Harper, P., Gartner, D. and Behrens, D. 2023. Understanding the impact of social networks on the spread of obesity. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 20(15), article number: 6451. (10.3390/ijerph20156451)
Panayides, M., Knight, V. and Harper, P. 2023. A game theoretic model of the behavioural gaming that takes place at the EMS - ED interface. European Journal of Operational Research 305(3), pp. 1236-1258. (10.1016/j.ejor.2022.07.001)
Brice, S. N., Harper, P. R., Gartner, D. and Behrens, D. A. 2023. Modeling disease progression and treatment pathways for depression jointly using agent based modeling and system dynamics. Frontiers in Public Health 10, article number: 1011104. (10.3389/fpubh.2022.1011104)
England, T., Harper, P., Crosby, T., Gartner, D., Arruda, E. F., Foley, K. and Williamson, I. 2023. Modelling lung cancer diagnostic pathways using discrete event simulation. Journal of Simulation 17(1), pp. 94-104. (10.1080/17477778.2021.1956866)

2022

Cope, A. L. et al. 2022. The development and application of a chairside oral health risk and need stratification tool in general dental services. Journal of Dentistry 123, article number: 104206. (10.1016/j.jdent.2022.104206)
Brice, S. et al. 2022. Emergency services utilization in Jakarta (Indonesia): A cross-sectional study of patients attending hospital emergency departments. BMC Health Services Research 22, article number: 639. (10.1186/s12913-022-08061-8)
Williams, E., Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2022. Linking predictive and prescriptive analytics of elderly and frail patient hospital services. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022), Rochester, MN, United States, 11-14 June 20222022 IEEE 10th International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI). pp. 1-1., (10.1109/ICHI54592.2022.00071)
Gartner, D., Williams, E. and Harper, P. 2022. Prescriptive healthcare analytics: a tutorial on discrete optimization and simulation. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022), Rochester, MN, United States, 11-14 June 2022.
Gartner, D., England, T., Behrens, D., Spernaes, I., Buchanan, J. and Harper, P. 2022. Evaluation of participants’ reaction and learning in a taught analytics and modelling academy program in U.K.’s National Health Service. Presented at: 10th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2022), Rochester, MN, United States, 11-14 June 2022.
Palmer, G. I., Harper, P., Knight, V. and Brooks, C. 2022. Modelling changes in healthcare demand through geographic data extrapolation. Health Systems 11(2), pp. 109-125. (10.1080/20476965.2021.1906764)

2021

Williams, E., Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. A survey of OR/MS models on care planning for frail and elderly patients. Operations Research for Health Care 31, article number: 100325. (10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100325)
Ghotane, S. G., Don-Davis, P., Kamara, D., Harper, P. R., Challacombe, S. J. and Gallagher, J. E. 2021. Needs-led human resource planning for Sierra Leone in support of oral health. Human Resources for Health 19(1), article number: 106. (10.1186/s12960-021-00623-x)
Arruda, E., Harper, P., England, T., Gartner, D., Aspland, E., Ourique, F. and Crosby, T. 2021. Resource optimisation for cancer pathways with aggregate diagnostic demand: a perishable inventory approach. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 32(2), pp. 221-236. (10.1093/imaman/dpaa014)
Aspland, E., Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2021. Clinical pathway modelling: A literature review. Health Systems 10(1), pp. 1-23. (10.1080/20476965.2019.1652547)
Aspland, E., Harper, P. R., Gartner, D., Webb, P. and Barrett-Lee, P. 2021. Modified Needleman-Wunsch algorithm for clinical pathway clustering. Journal of Biomedical Informatics 115, article number: 103668. (10.1016/j.jbi.2020.103668)
England, T., Harper, P., Crosby, T., Gartner, D., Arruda, E. F., Foley, K. and Williamson, I. J. 2021. Examining the diagnostic pathway for lung cancer patients in Wales using discrete event simulation. Translational Lung Cancer Research 10(3), pp. 1368-1382. (10.21037/tlcr-20-919)
Brice, S. et al. 2021. Factors influencing the delivery of cancer pathways: a summary of the literature. Journal of Health Organization and Management 35(9), pp. 121-139. (10.1108/JHOM-05-2020-0192)
England, T. et al. 2021. Near real-time bed modelling feasibility study. Journal of Simulation 15(4), pp. 261-272. (10.1080/17477778.2019.1706434)
Kheiri, A., Lewis, R., Thompson, J. and Harper, P. 2021. Constructing operating theatre schedules using partitioned graph colouring techniques. Health Systems 10(4), pp. 286-297. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1796530)
Harper, P., Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2021. Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. Health Systems 10(1), pp. 31-40. (10.1080/20476965.2020.1857214)

2020

Shone, R., Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2020. A conservative index heuristic for routing problems with multiple heterogeneous service facilities. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 92, pp. 511-543. (10.1007/s00186-020-00722-w)
Harper, P. 2020. Healthy O.R. in Wales. Impact 2020(2), pp. 28-32. (10.1080/2058802X.2020.1768684)
Harper, P. R. 2020. Server behaviours in healthcare queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71(7), pp. 1124-1136. (10.1080/01605682.2019.1567653)
Kunc, M., Harper, P. and Katsikopoulos, K. 2020. A review of implementation of behavioural aspects in the application of OR in healthcare. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71(7), pp. 1055-1072. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1489355)
Brailsford, S., Carter, M., Harper, P. and Katsikopoulos, K. 2020. Special issue on healthcare behavioural OR [Editorial]. Journal of the Operational Research Society 71(7), pp. 1053-1054. (10.1080/01605682.2020.1766848)
Williams, E., Harper, P. and Gartner, D. 2020. Modelling of the collections process in the blood supply chain: a literature review. IISE Transactions on Healthcare Systems Engineering 10(3), pp. 200-211. (10.1080/24725579.2020.1776426)
Harper, P., Moore, J. and Woolley, T. 2020. Secondary household Covid-19 transmission modelling of students returning home from university. n/a
Lynam, A., Behrens, D. A., Battista-Dowds, E. M., Gartner, D. and Harper, P. 2020. A Monte Carlo simulation model for evaluating the effectiveness of Interventions along the ‘Diabesity’ pathway. Presented at: 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics (ICHI 2020), Virtual, 30 November - 3 December 2020Proceedings of the 8th IEEE International Conference on Healthcare Informatics.

2019

Palmer, G. I., Knight, V. A., Harper, P. R. and Hawa, A. L. 2019. Ciw: An open-source discrete event simulation library. Journal of Simulation 13(1), pp. 68-82. (10.1080/17477778.2018.1473909)
Morgan, J., Harper, P., Knight, V., Artemiou, A., Carney, A. and Nelson, A. 2019. Determining patient outcomes from patient letters: A comparison of text analysis approaches. Journal of the Operational Research Society 70(9), pp. 1425-1439. (10.1080/01605682.2018.1506559)

2018

Palmer, G. I., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2018. Modelling deadlock in open restricted queueing networks. European Journal of Operational Research 266(2), pp. 609-621. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.10.039)
Fetta, A., Harper, P., Knight, V. and Williams, J. 2018. Predicting adolescent social networks to stop smoking in secondary schools. European Journal of Operational Research 265(1), pp. 263-276. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.07.039)
Ansah, J. P., Koh, V., Bayer, S., Harper, P. R. and Matchar, D. 2018. Healthcare human resource planning. In: Kahraman, C. and Topcu, Y. I. eds. Operations Research Applications in Health Care Management., Vol. 262. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 515-541., (10.1007/978-3-319-65455-3_20)

2017

Penn, M. L., Potts, C. N. and Harper, P. R. 2017. Multiple criteria mixed-integer programming for incorporating multiple factors into the development of master operating theatre timetables. European Journal of Operational Research 262(1), pp. 194-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.03.065)
Vile, J. L., Gillard, J. W., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2017. A queueing theoretic approach to set staffing levels in time-dependent dual-class service systems. Decision Sciences 48(4), pp. 766-794. (10.1111/deci.12236)
Arzpayma, P., Jones, H., Harper, P., Knight, V., Shipley, D., Edwards, C. and Anstey, A. 2017. Creation and assessment of a computerized modelling tool for optimizing planning of home and hospital-based phototherapy. British Journal of Dermatology 176(5), pp. 1390-1391. (10.1111/bjd.14994)
Mayor, S. et al. 2017. Measuring harm and informing quality improvement in the Welsh NHS: the longitudinal Welsh national adverse events study. Health Services and Delivery Research 5(9) (10.3310/hsdr05090)

2016

Shone, R., Knight, V. A., Harper, P. R., Williams, J. E. and Minty, J. 2016. Containment of socially optimal policies in multiple-facility Markovian queueing systems. Journal of the Operational Research Society 67(4), pp. 629-643. (10.1057/jors.2015.98)
Vile, J. L., Gillard, J. W., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2016. Time-dependent stochastic methods for managing and scheduling Emergency Medical Services. Operations Research for Health Care 8, pp. 42-52. (10.1016/j.orhc.2015.07.002)

2015

Wanyonyi, K. L., Radford, D. R., Harper, P. R. and Gallagher, J. E. 2015. Alternative scenarios: harnessing mid-level providers and evidence-based practice in primary dental care in England through operational research. Human Resources for Health 13(1), pp. 78. (10.1186/s12960-015-0072-9)
Young, T. et al. 2015. Improving the NHS demands more than just extra money [Letter]. BMJ 350(jun24), pp. h3338. (10.1136/bmj.h3338)
Putman, K., Anstey, A., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2015. Modelling of psoriasis patient flows for the reconfiguration of secondary care services and treatments. Health Systems (10.1057/hs.2015.4)
Smith, H. K. and Harper, P. R. 2015. Can you model growth of trust? A study of the sustainability of a rural community health centre in North India. Journal of Simulation 9(2), pp. 170-181. (10.1057/jos.2014.31)
Rowse, E. L., Lewis, R., Harper, P. R. and Thompson, J. M. 2015. Applying set partitioning methods in the construction of operating theatre schedules. Presented at: International Conference on Theory and Practice in Modern Computing 2015, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain, 22-24 July 2015.
Rauner, M. S., Schaffhauser-Linzatti, M. M., Bauerstätter, J., Schwarz, B., Harper, P. R., Wittig, K. and Mayer, B. 2015. A decision support system for prevention and costing of occupational injuries. International Journal of Decision Support Systems

2014

Viana, J., Brailsford, S., Harindra, V. and Harper, P. R. 2014. Combining discrete-event simulation and system dynamics in a healthcare setting: a composite model for Chlamydia infection. European Journal of Operational Research 237(1), pp. 196-206. (10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.052)
Sahu, S. K., Baffour, B., Harper, P. R., Minty, J. and Sarran, C. 2014. A hierarchical Bayesian model for improving short-term forecasting of hospital demand by including meteorological information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 177(1), pp. 39-61. (10.1111/rssa.12008)
Sadsad, R., McDonnell, G., Viana, J., Desai, S., Harper, P. R. and Brailsford, S. 2014. Hybrid modelling case studies. In: Brailsford, S., Churilov, L. and Dangerfield, B. eds. Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics for Management Decision Making. Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science Wiley, pp. 295-317., (10.1002/9781118762745.ch14)

2013

Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Selfish routing in public services. European Journal of Operational Research 230(1), pp. 122-132. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.04.003)
Vile, J., Gillard, J. W., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2013. Integrating demand forecasting and workforce planning strategies for emergency medical services. Presented at: Operational Research Applied to Health Services (ORAHS), Istanbul, Turkey, July 2013.
Gallagher, J. E., Lim, Z. and Harper, P. R. 2013. Workforce skill mix: modelling the potential for dental therapists in state-funded primary dental care. International Dental Journal 63(2), pp. 57-64. (10.1111/idj.12006)
Smith, H. K., Harper, P. R. and Potts, C. N. 2013. Bicriteria efficiency/equity hierarchical location models for public service application. Journal of the Operational Research Society 64(4), pp. 500-512. (10.1057/jors.2012.68)
Mustafee, N., Harper, P. r., Kleinman, E., Gallagher, J. and Knight, V. A. 2013. Cost-effective workforce planning: optimising the dental team skill-mix for England. Journal of Enterprise Information Management 26(1/2), pp. 91-108. (10.1108/17410391311289569)

2012

Knight, V. A., Harper, P. R. and Smith, L. 2012. Ambulance allocation for maximal survival with heterogeneous outcome measures. OMEGA -The International Journal of Management Science. 40(6), pp. 918-926. (10.1016/j.omega.2012.02.003)
Harper, P. R., Minty, J., Baffour, B. and Sahu, S. 2012. MetSim: A simulation support tool using meteorological information to improve the planning and management of hospital services. Presented at: ORAHS 2012 - High Tech - Human Touch: 38th annual meeting of the EURO working group on OR Applied to Health Services, Twente University, Enschede, Netherlands, 15-20 July 2012.
Harper, P. R., Minty, J., Sahu, S. and Baffour, B. 2012. MetSim: A simulation decision support tool using meteorological information for short-term planning of hospital services. Presented at: SIMULTECH 2012 - 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, Rome, Italy, 28-31 July 2012IMULTECH 2012 - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications, Rome, Italy, 28 - 31 July, 2012.. SciTePress pp. 543-547.
Harper, P. R., Knight, V. A. and Marshall, A. H. 2012. Discrete conditional phase-type models utilising classification trees: application to modelling health service capacities. European Journal of Operational Research 219(3), pp. 522-530. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.035)
Brailsford, S. C., Harper, P. R. and Sykes, J. 2012. Incorporating human behaviour in simulation models of screening for breast cancer. European Journal of Operational Research 219(3), pp. 491-507. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.10.041)
Fetta, A. G., Harper, P. R., Knight, V. A., Vieira, I. T. and Williams, J. E. 2012. On the Peter Principle: An agent based investigation into the consequential effects of social networks and behavioural factors. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 391(9), pp. 2898-2910. (10.1016/j.physa.2011.12.053)
Knight, V. A. and Harper, P. R. 2012. Modelling emergency medical services with phase-type distributions. Health Systems 1(1), pp. 58-68. (10.1057/hs.2012.1)
Vile, J. L., Gillard, J. W., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2012. Predicting ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society 63, pp. 1556-1565. (10.1057/jors.2011.160)
Rowse, E. L., Harper, P. R., Williams, J. E. and Smithies, M. 2012. Optimising the use of resources within the district nursing service: A case study. Health Systems 2(1), pp. 43-52. (10.1057/hs.2012.22)

2011

Bolt, T. et al. 2011. Overcoming the barriers: a qualitative study of simulation adoption in the NHS. Journal of the Operational Research Society (10.1057/jors.2011.130)
Vieira, I. T., de Senna, V., Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2011. Tumour doubling times and the length bias in breast cancer screening programmes. Health Care Management Science 14(2), pp. 203-211. (10.1007/s10729-011-9156-9)
Jun, G. T., Morris, Z., Eldabi, T., Harper, P. R., Naseer, A., Patel, B. and Clarkson, J. P. 2011. Development of modelling method selection tool for health services management: From problem structuring methods to modelling and simulation methods. BMC Health Services Research 11(1), article number: 108. (10.1186/1472-6963-11-108)
Harper, P. R. 2011. Hospital operating theatre scheduling - advanced booking of individual patients. Presented at: 37th ORAHS Conference, Cardiff, July 2011 - Operational Research Informing National Health Policy, Cardiff, Wales, UK, 24-29 July 2011.
Harper, P. R., Knight, V. A., Vieira, I. and Williams, J. E. 2011. Operational research informing national health policy. Cardiff University.

2010

Jahangirian, M. et al. 2010. Simulation in health-care: lessons from other sectors. Operational Research 12(1), pp. 45-55. (10.1007/s12351-010-0089-8)
Vieira, I. T., Cheng, R. C. H., Harper, P. R. and de Senna, V. 2010. Small world network models of the dynamics of HIV infection. Annals of Operations Research 178(1), pp. 173-200. (10.1007/s10479-009-0571-y)
Harper, P. R. 2010. Developing a multi-methodology operating theatre scheduling support system. Presented at: IMA Sixth International Conference on Quantitative Modelling in the Management of Health Care, London, UK, 29-31 March 2010.
Gallagher, J. E., Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208(3), article number: E6. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.106)
Gallagher, J. E., Kleinman, E. R. and Harper, P. R. 2010. Summary of: Modelling workforce skill-mix: how can dental professionals meet the needs and demands of older people in England?. British Dental Journal 208(3), pp. 116-117. (10.1038/sj.bdj.2010.132)
Vile, J. L., Gillard, J. W., Harper, P. R. and Knight, V. A. 2010. Forecasting Welsh ambulance demand using singular spectrum analysis. Presented at: 36th International ORAHS conference, Genova, Italy, 18-23 July 2010 Presented at Testi, A. ed.Operations Research for Patient-Centered Health Care Delivery: Proceedings of the XXXVI International ORAHS Conference. Economia Vol. 5. Milan: Franco Angeli pp. 196-208.

2009

Kleinman, E. R., Harper, P. R. and Gallagher, J. E. 2009. Trends in NHS primary dental care for older people in England: implications for the future. Gerodontology 26(3), pp. 193-201. (10.1111/j.1741-2358.2008.00260.x)
Harper, P. R. 2009. Location modelling for community healthcare facilities. Presented at: 33rd International Conference of Operational Research Applied to Health Services, St Etienne, France, 15-20 July 2009.
Smith, H. K., Laporte, G. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Locational analysis: highlights of growth to maturity. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60, pp. S140-S148. (10.1057/jors.2008.172)
Smith, H. K., Harper, P. R., Potts, C. N. and Thyle, A. 2009. Planning sustainable community health schemes in rural areas of developing countries. European Journal of Operational Research 193(3), pp. 768-777. (10.1016/j.ejor.2007.07.031)
Harper, P. R., Powell, N. H. and Williams, J. E. 2009. Modelling the size and skill-mix of hospital nursing teams. Journal of the Operational Research Society 61(5), pp. 768-779. (10.1057/jors.2009.43)
Brailsford, S. C., Harper, P. R., Patel, B. and Pitt, M. 2009. An analysis of the academic literature on simulation and modelling in health care. Journal of Simulation 3(3), pp. 130-140. (10.1057/jos.2009.10)
Arisha, A., Thorwarth, M. and Harper, P. R. 2009. Simulation model to investigate flexible workload management for healthcare and servicescape environment. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, USA, December 2009.

2008

Harper, P. R. and Leite Jr., E. 2008. TreeWorks: Advances in Scalable Decision Trees. International Journal of Healthcare Information Systems and Informatics (IJHISI) 3(4), pp. 53-68. (10.4018/jhisi.2008100104)

2007

Brailsford, S. C. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Editorial - Special issue: Operational research in health. Journal of the Operational Research Society 58(2), pp. 141-144. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602267)
Harper, P. R. 2007. Simulation modelling of a major accident and emergency department in Rome. Presented at: 31st Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services, Southampton, UK, July 2007.
Brailsford, S. and Harper, P. R. 2007. Operational research for health policy: Making better decisions. Peter Lang.

2006

Evenden, D., Harper, P. R., Brailsford, S. C. and Harindra, V. 2006. Improving the cost-effectiveness of Chlamydia screening with targeted screening strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 57(12), pp. 1400-1412. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602134)
Harper, P. R. and Winslett, D. J. 2006. Classification trees: A possible method for maternity risk grouping. European Journal of Operational Research 169(1), pp. 146-156. (10.1016/j.ejor.2004.05.014)
Brailsford, S. C., Sykes, J. and Harper, P. R. 2006. Incorporating human behavior in healthcare simulation models. Presented at: Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06), Monterey, CA, USA, 3-6 December 2006 Presented at Perrone, L. F. et al. eds.Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2006 (WSC 06). Los Alamitos, CA: IEEE pp. 466-472., (10.1109/WSC.2006.323117)
Harper, P. 2006. Modelling for the reprovision and redesign of intermediate care services in the UK - a local example. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services, Stockholm, Sweden, July 2006.
Harper, P. R. 2006. Combined geomapping, statistical risk grouping and computer simulation for modelling chlamydia infection dynamics and screening strategies. Presented at: 30th Meeting of Operational Research Applied to Health Services, Stockholm, Sweden, July 2006.

2005

Evenden, D., Harper, P. R., Brailsford, S. C. and Harindra, V. 2005. System Dynamics modeling of Chlamydia infection for screening intervention planning and cost-benefit estimation. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 16(3), pp. 265-279. (10.1093/imaman/dpi022)
Harper, P. R., de Senna, V., Vieira, I. T. and Shahani, A. K. 2005. A genetic algorithm for the project assignment problem. Computers & Operations Research 32(5), pp. 1255-1265. (10.1016/j.cor.2003.11.003)
Harper, P. R. and Jones, S. K. 2005. Mathematical models for the early detection and treatment of colorectal cancer. Health Care Management Science 8(2), pp. 101-109. (10.1007/s10729-005-0393-7)
Harper, P. R., Shahani, A. K., Gallagher, J. E. and Bowie, C. 2005. Planning health services with explicit geographical considerations: a stochastic location-allocation approach. OMEGA - The International Journal of Management Science 33(2), pp. 141-152. (10.1016/j.omega.2004.03.011)
Harper, P. R. 2005. A review and comparison of classification algorithms for medical decision making. Health Policy 71(3), pp. 315-331. (10.1016/j.healthpol.2004.05.002)
Harper, P. R., Phillips, S. and Gallagher, J. E. 2005. Geographical simulation modelling for the regional planning of oral and maxillofacial surgery across London. Journal of the Operational Research Society 56(2), pp. 134-143. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601898)
Harper, P. R. 2005. Combining data mining tools with health care models for improved understanding of health processes and resource utilisation. Clinical and Investigative Medicine 28(6), pp. 338-341.
Rauner, M., Harper, P. R. and Schwartz, B. 2005. Economic impact of occupational injuries: resource allocation for prevention programs. Central European Journal of Operations Research, pp. 393-424.

2004

Harper, P. R. and Pitt, M. A. 2004. On the challenges of healthcare modelling and a proposed project life cycle for successful implementation. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55(6), pp. 657-661. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601719)
Harper, P. R., Yates, J., Wilderspin, H., Shahani, A. K., Bowie, C. and Duff, C. 2004. Population needs assessment and access modelling for cardiac services. Journal of the Operational Research Society 55(5), pp. 529-534. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601644)
Ball, C., Walker, G., Harper, P. R., Sanders, D. and McElligott, M. 2004. Moving on from 'patient dependency' and 'nursing workload' to managing risk in critical care. Intensive and Critical Care Nursing 20(2), pp. 62-68. (10.1016/j.iccn.2004.02.001)

2003

Harper, P. H., Sayyad, M. G., de Senna, V., Shahani, A. K., Yajnik, C. S. and Shelgikar, K. M. 2003. A systems modelling approach for the prevention and treatment of diabetic retinopathy. European Journal of Operational Research 150(1), pp. 81-91. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00787-7)
Vieira, I. T., Harper, P. R., Shahani, A. K. and de Senna, V. 2003. Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 54(7), pp. 713-722. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601566)
Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2003. A decision support system for the care of HIV and AIDS patients in India. European Journal of Operational Research 147(1), pp. 187-197. (10.1016/S0377-2217(02)00270-9)
Harper, P. R. and Gamlin, H. M. 2003. Reduced outpatient waiting times with improved appointment scheduling: a simulation modelling approach. OR Spectrum 25(2), pp. 207-222. (10.1007/s00291-003-0122-x)
Costa, A. X., Ridley, S. A., Shahani, A. K., Harper, P. R., de Senna, V. and Nielsen, M. S. 2003. Mathematical modelling and simulation for planning critical care capacity. Anaesthesia 58(4), pp. 320-327. (10.1046/j.1365-2044.2003.03042.x)

2002

Harper, P. R. 2002. A framework for operational modelling of hospital resources. Health Care Management Science 5, pp. 165-173. (10.1023/A:1019767900627)
Harper, P. R. and Shahani, A. K. 2002. Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals. Journal of the Operational Research Society 53(1), pp. 11-18. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601278)

Research group

Operational Research

My primary research interests are in:

Stochastic OR, including queueing theory, simulation methods, optimisation, and game theory
Behavioural OR, with a particluar focus of behaviours in models
Mathematical modelling of healthcare systems
Mathematical modelling for the prevention, early detection and treatment of diseases
Machine learning and data mining techniques

Healthcare systems are typically characterised by complexity, variability, uncertainty and use of scarce resources. To model such systems requires the development of suitable mathematical and simulation models that are able to account for the stochastic conditions, complex and large-scale patient pathways and disease processes, and at both operational and strategic levels. Various novel approaches have been developed by myself and colleagues at Cardiff (and with collaborators worldwide), including those in queueing and game theoretic models (for example time-dependent and priority queues, and routing games), hybrid simulation methodologies (DES, Agent-based, SD, Monte Carlo methods), location theory and optimisation, social network models for disease propagation, and health behavioural models.

Funding has come from many different sources to support my research and translational findings, including EPSRC, The Royal Society, The Leverhulme Trust, Nuffield Foundation, NIHR, ESRC, Health Foundation, the Department of Health, Welsh Government, and various NHS partners.

I was delighted to establish a mathematical modelling unit in collaboration with the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board. A team of post-doctoral research associates/fellows, a lecturer in OR, and several PhD students have been funded by ABUHB and they work between the University and Health Board (as researchers -in-residence). In addition Cardiff and Vale University Health Board regularly fund both PhDs and post-docs.

In 2015 the team won a University Innovation award for our research and impact, and a prestigious Times Higher Education award for ‘Outstanding Contribution to Innovation and Technology' and in 2021 the OR Society Lyn Thomas Impact Medal.

My research, and that with many collaborators, has led to sustained impact and significant benefits to the NHS and patient care, resulting in increased efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare systems, and improved outcomes. Projects have included reducing waiting times, reducing elective patient cancellations, ambulance modelling (forecasting demand, location analysis, crew rostering), finding the most effective and equitable locations on for healthcare facilities, advising on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for preventing and screening for disease such as informing policy on cancer, HIV/AIDS and Chlamydia screening.

Please also see Saving lives with maths and Meet our innovators.

I teach the following modules:

MAT021 – Foundations of OR and Analytics
MAT031 – Further OR
MAT009/MA4609 – Healthcare Modelling

Appointments

2022 - : Director, Wales Data Nation Accelerator (WDNA)
2019 - 22: Academic Chair of the Cardiff University - Office for National Statistics (ONS) Strategic Partnership
2009 - : Head of the Operational Research Group, Cardiff University
2010 - : Director, hmc² (Health Modelling Centre Cymru)
2018 - 22 : Director of the Data Innovation Research Institute
2009 - 18 : Director of Postgraduate Taught Studies
2013 - 21 : Deputy Head of School (School of Mathematics, Cardiff University)
2011 - 21 : Editor-in-Chief, Health Systems (Taylor & Francis)
2011 - 21 : Director of Impact & Engagement, School of Mathematics
2008 - 12: Cluster leader for Operational Research and Statistics, WIMCS.
2007 - 11: WIMCS Research Chair in Operational Research, Cardiff University
2006 - 07: Senior Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
2001 - 06: Lecturer in Operational Research, University of Southampton
1997 - 02: Research Fellow, Institute of Modelling for Healthcare, University of Southampton

Qualifications

2005: PG Certificate in Education, University of Southampton
2002: Ph.D. School of Mathematics, University of Southampton
1996: M.Sc. School of Mathematics, University of Southampton
1995: B.Sc. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath

PhD students

Current

Matthew Howells (EPSRC CASE award with Cardiff and Vale University Health Board)
Charlotte Marshall (EPSRC CASE award with TEC Cymru)
Elin Williams (Gwent Area Planning Board)

Completed

Michalis Panayides (2023): Workforce Behaviours in Healthcare Systems
Elizabeth Williams (2023): Linking Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics for Modelling Healthcare Services for Frail and Elderly Patients
John Threfall (2023): Development and Benchmarking of a Novel Scatter Search Algorithm for Learning Probabilistic Graphical Models in Healthcare
Emily Williams (2022): Mathematical Modelling to Support Blood Collection for the Welsh Blood Service
Emma Aspland (2021): Smart Simulation and Modelling for Complex Cancer Systems
Luke Smallman (2020): Dimension Reduction for Exponential Family Data with Applications to Text Data
Sarie Brice (2019): Modelling Disease Progression and Treatment Pathways for Depression
Mark Tuson (2019): Understanding the Impact of Social Networks on the Spread of Obesity
Geraint Palmer (2017): Modelling Deadlock in Queueing Systems
Elizabeth Rowse (2015): Robust Optimisation of Operating Theatre Schedules
Robert Shone (2014): Optimal Control of Queueing Systems with Multiple Heterogeneous Facilities
Angelico Fetta (2014): Modelling Adolescent Smoking Behaviours with Social Network Analysis
Marion Penn (2014): Developing a Multi-Methodological Approach to Hospital Operating Theatre Scheduling
Leanne Smith (2013): Modelling Emergency Medical Services
Julie Vile (2013): Time-Dependent Stochastic Modelling for Predicting Demand and Scheduling of Emergency Medical Services
Joe Viana (2011): The Development of a Combined Simulation Approach in a Sexual Health Context: Combining Discrete Event and System Dynamics Simulation to Form a Composite Model
Shivam Desai (2011): Modelling Social Care Needs of Older People in Hampshire
Dileep Da Silva (2011): Dental Public Health Needs for Sri Lanka
Michael Thorwarth (2011): A Simulation-based Decision Support Model to improve Healthcare Facilities Performance – elaborated on an Irish Emergency Department
Evandro Leite (2009): Decision Trees
Honora Smith (2008): Locating Sustainable Community Health Facilities
Jennifer Sykes (2007): Healthcare Behavioural Modelling
Naomi Powell (2006): Simulation and Optimisation of Healthcare Workforce Needs

Current supervision

Matthew Howells

Graduate Tutor

Charlie Marshall

Research student

Contact Details

Harper@cardiff.ac.uk
+44 29208 76841
Abacws, Room 2.56, Senghennydd Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF24 4AG

“Seeing maths as a powerful toolbox” key to PhD student’s success

Professor Paul Harper

Overview

Publication