Dr David Macleod
(Translated he/him)
Darlithydd mewn Risg Hinsawdd
Ysgol Gwyddorau'r Ddaear a'r Amgylchedd
- Ar gael fel goruchwyliwr ôl-raddedig
Trosolwyg
Fy ffocws ymchwil yw risg hinsawdd: deall amrywioldeb tywydd a hinsawdd a'i effeithiau. Rwy'n gweithio ar orwelion a ragwelir o ddyddiau i ddegawdau i ddegawdau i ddod.
Rhan allweddol o fy ngwaith yw gwerthuso ac arbrofi gyda modelau hinsawdd cychwynnol. Mae hyn yn cefnogi dealltwriaeth o yrwyr digwyddiadau meteorolegol eithafol, ac i ba raddau y gellir eu rhagweld.
Mae'r gwaith gwyddonol hwn yn ffurfio conglfaen o'm gwaith yn cefnogi sefydliadau dyngarol rhyngwladol i ddefnyddio rhagolygon ar gyfer gweithredu rhagweladwy.
Er mwyn cyfleu syniadau allweddol i bartneriaid anwyddonol (ac yn fy addysgu) rwy'n defnyddio a dylunio "gemau difrifol" hefyd. Mae'r rhain yn weithgareddau sy'n canolbwyntio ar chwarae sydd wedi'u cynllunio i archwilio cysyniadau yn rhyngweithiol ac adeiladu dealltwriaeth graidd mewn ffordd ddiddorol.
Cyhoeddiad
2024
- Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150(764), pp. 4550-4566. (10.1002/qj.4829)
- Cocking, K. et al. 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology (10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1)
- Mwangi, E., MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. and Todd, M. C. 2024. Variability of rainy season onsets over East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 44(10), pp. 3357-3379. (10.1002/joc.8528)
- MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E. W., Michaelides, K. and Singer, M. B. 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51(5), article number: e2023GL105258. (10.1029/2023gl105258)
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. [Online]. Authorea. (10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1) Available at: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14-19 April 2024EGU General Assembly 2024 Abstracts. Copernicus, (10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2897)
2023
- Steinke, J. et al. 2023. Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts. Climate Services 32, article number: 100410. (10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100410)
- Macleod, D. et al. 2023. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making. PLOS Climate 2(3), article number: e0000138. (10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138)
2022
- Mwangi, E. et al. 2022. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development 14(8), pp. 741–756. (10.1080/17565529.2021.1984194)
- Kolstad, E. W. and MacLeod, D. 2022. Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics 59, pp. 1043–1056. (10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6)
- White, C. J. et al. 2022. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), pp. E1448–E1472. (10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1)
- Muktadir, M., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D., Singer, M. and Miralles, D. 2022. Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577)
- Otieno, D. et al. 2022. Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2129)
- Boult, V. L. et al. 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management 35, article number: 100402. (10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2022. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804)
2021
- MacLeod, D., Easton-Calabria, E., de Perez, E. C. and Jaime, C. 2021. Verification of forecasts for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, flood and storm surge over Myanmar and the Philippines. Weather and Climate Extremes 33, article number: 100325. (10.1016/j.wace.2021.100325)
- Singer, M. B. et al. 2021. Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present. Scientific Data 8, article number: 224. (10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9)
- Guigma, K. H., MacLeod, D., Todd, M. and Wang, Y. 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics 57(1-2), pp. 537–556. (10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8)
- Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D. and Demissie, T. D. 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48(14), article number: e2021GL093292. (10.1029/2021GL093292)
- MacLeod, D. A. et al. 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(4), pp. 887–903. (10.1175/JHM-D-20-0211.1)
- de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J. and Black, E. 2021. Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting 36(1), pp. 265–284. (10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1)
- MacLeod, D., Graham, R., O'Reilly, C., Otieno, G. and Todd, M. 2021. Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains. Atmospheric Science Letters 22(2), article number: e1015. (10.1002/asl.1015)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21(1), pp. 261–277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, pp. 261-277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. R. and Todd, M. C. 2021. Playing the long game: anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts. Climate Risk Management 34, article number: 100375. (10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375)
- Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T., Johnson, S. and Palmer, T. 2021. How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19–30 Apr 2021. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928)
2020
- MacLeod, D., Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Graham, R. and Todd, M. 2020. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3533)
2019
- MacLeod, D. and Caminade, C. 2019. The moderate impact of the 2015 el niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts. Journal of Climate 32(22), pp. 7989–8001. (10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0201.1)
- MacLeod, D. 2019. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments. Climate Dynamics 53(7-8), pp. 4505–4520. (10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6)
2018
- Kilavi, M. et al. 2018. Extreme rainfall and flooding over Central Kenya including Nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions. Atmosphere 9(12), article number: 472. (10.3390/atmos9120472)
- Hosking, J. S., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C. R., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. F. and Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters 13(5), article number: 54032. (10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78)
- MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T. and Weisheimer, A. 2018. Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters 19(5), article number: e815. (10.1002/asl.815)
2017
- MacLeod, D., Torralba, V., Davis, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F. 2017. Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?. Meteorological Applications 25(1), pp. 1-10. (10.1002/met.1660)
- White, C. J. et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications 24(3), pp. 315-325. (10.1002/met.1654)
- Leutbecher, M. et al. 2017. Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(707), pp. 2315-2339. (10.1002/qj.3094)
- O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N. and Woollings, T. 2017. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 44(11), pp. 5729-5738. (10.1002/2017GL073736)
- Torralba, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., MacLeod, D., Christel, I. and Davis, M. 2017. Seasonal climate prediction: a new source of information for the management of wind energy resources. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56(5), pp. 1231–1247. (10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0204.1)
- Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A. and Palmer, T. 2017. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(703), pp. 917-926. (10.1002/qj.2976)
2016
- MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(7), pp. 2737–2743. (10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016)
- MacLeod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142(694), pp. 79-90. (10.1002/qj.2631)
2015
- MacLeod, D. A., Jones, A., Di Giuseppe, F., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10(4), article number: 44005. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005)
- Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N. and Weisheimer, A. 2015. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5), pp. 1554-1559. (10.1002/2014GL062829)
2014
- MacLeod, D. A. and Morse, A. P. 2014. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk. Scientific Reports 4, article number: 7264. (10.1038/srep07264)
- Lauderdale, J. M. et al. 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13(1), article number: 310. (10.1186/1475-2875-13-310)
- Caminade, C. et al. 2014. Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11(1), pp. 903-918. (10.3390/ijerph110100903)
2013
- MacLeod, D. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in climate-driven disease risk predictions. PhD Thesis, University of Liverpool.
2012
- MacLeod, D. A., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2012. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts. Environmental Research Letters 7(4), article number: 44012. (10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012)
Cynadleddau
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14-19 April 2024EGU General Assembly 2024 Abstracts. Copernicus, (10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2897)
- Muktadir, M., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D., Singer, M. and Miralles, D. 2022. Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577)
- Otieno, D. et al. 2022. Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2129)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2022. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804)
- Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T., Johnson, S. and Palmer, T. 2021. How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19–30 Apr 2021. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928)
- MacLeod, D., Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Graham, R. and Todd, M. 2020. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3533)
Erthyglau
- Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150(764), pp. 4550-4566. (10.1002/qj.4829)
- Cocking, K. et al. 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology (10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1)
- Mwangi, E., MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. and Todd, M. C. 2024. Variability of rainy season onsets over East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 44(10), pp. 3357-3379. (10.1002/joc.8528)
- MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E. W., Michaelides, K. and Singer, M. B. 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51(5), article number: e2023GL105258. (10.1029/2023gl105258)
- Steinke, J. et al. 2023. Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts. Climate Services 32, article number: 100410. (10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100410)
- Macleod, D. et al. 2023. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making. PLOS Climate 2(3), article number: e0000138. (10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138)
- Mwangi, E. et al. 2022. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development 14(8), pp. 741–756. (10.1080/17565529.2021.1984194)
- Kolstad, E. W. and MacLeod, D. 2022. Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics 59, pp. 1043–1056. (10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6)
- White, C. J. et al. 2022. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), pp. E1448–E1472. (10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1)
- Boult, V. L. et al. 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management 35, article number: 100402. (10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402)
- MacLeod, D., Easton-Calabria, E., de Perez, E. C. and Jaime, C. 2021. Verification of forecasts for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, flood and storm surge over Myanmar and the Philippines. Weather and Climate Extremes 33, article number: 100325. (10.1016/j.wace.2021.100325)
- Singer, M. B. et al. 2021. Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present. Scientific Data 8, article number: 224. (10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9)
- Guigma, K. H., MacLeod, D., Todd, M. and Wang, Y. 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics 57(1-2), pp. 537–556. (10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8)
- Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D. and Demissie, T. D. 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48(14), article number: e2021GL093292. (10.1029/2021GL093292)
- MacLeod, D. A. et al. 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(4), pp. 887–903. (10.1175/JHM-D-20-0211.1)
- de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J. and Black, E. 2021. Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting 36(1), pp. 265–284. (10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1)
- MacLeod, D., Graham, R., O'Reilly, C., Otieno, G. and Todd, M. 2021. Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains. Atmospheric Science Letters 22(2), article number: e1015. (10.1002/asl.1015)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21(1), pp. 261–277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, pp. 261-277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. R. and Todd, M. C. 2021. Playing the long game: anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts. Climate Risk Management 34, article number: 100375. (10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375)
- MacLeod, D. and Caminade, C. 2019. The moderate impact of the 2015 el niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts. Journal of Climate 32(22), pp. 7989–8001. (10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0201.1)
- MacLeod, D. 2019. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments. Climate Dynamics 53(7-8), pp. 4505–4520. (10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6)
- Kilavi, M. et al. 2018. Extreme rainfall and flooding over Central Kenya including Nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions. Atmosphere 9(12), article number: 472. (10.3390/atmos9120472)
- Hosking, J. S., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C. R., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. F. and Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters 13(5), article number: 54032. (10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78)
- MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T. and Weisheimer, A. 2018. Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters 19(5), article number: e815. (10.1002/asl.815)
- MacLeod, D., Torralba, V., Davis, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F. 2017. Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?. Meteorological Applications 25(1), pp. 1-10. (10.1002/met.1660)
- White, C. J. et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications 24(3), pp. 315-325. (10.1002/met.1654)
- Leutbecher, M. et al. 2017. Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(707), pp. 2315-2339. (10.1002/qj.3094)
- O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N. and Woollings, T. 2017. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 44(11), pp. 5729-5738. (10.1002/2017GL073736)
- Torralba, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., MacLeod, D., Christel, I. and Davis, M. 2017. Seasonal climate prediction: a new source of information for the management of wind energy resources. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56(5), pp. 1231–1247. (10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0204.1)
- Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A. and Palmer, T. 2017. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(703), pp. 917-926. (10.1002/qj.2976)
- MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(7), pp. 2737–2743. (10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016)
- MacLeod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142(694), pp. 79-90. (10.1002/qj.2631)
- MacLeod, D. A., Jones, A., Di Giuseppe, F., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10(4), article number: 44005. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005)
- Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N. and Weisheimer, A. 2015. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5), pp. 1554-1559. (10.1002/2014GL062829)
- MacLeod, D. A. and Morse, A. P. 2014. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk. Scientific Reports 4, article number: 7264. (10.1038/srep07264)
- Lauderdale, J. M. et al. 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13(1), article number: 310. (10.1186/1475-2875-13-310)
- Caminade, C. et al. 2014. Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11(1), pp. 903-918. (10.3390/ijerph110100903)
- MacLeod, D. A., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2012. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts. Environmental Research Letters 7(4), article number: 44012. (10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012)
Gosodiad
- MacLeod, D. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in climate-driven disease risk predictions. PhD Thesis, University of Liverpool.
Gwefannau
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. [Online]. Authorea. (10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1) Available at: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1
Ymchwil
Ers 2017 rwyf wedi bod yn gweithio ar botensial i ddefnyddio systemau tywydd a rhagweld hinsawdd arloesol ar gyfer datblygu systemau rhybuddio cynnar. Mae fy ngweithgaredd ymchwil wedi canolbwyntio'n gryf ar Gorn Fwyaf Affrica (GHA), lle bûm yn gweithio ar y prosiect a ariennir gan DFiD NERC ForPAc. Yn y prosiect hwn fe wnaethom gefnogi datblygu systemau rhybuddio cynnar ar gyfer llifogydd a sychder yn Kenya a Chorn Fwyaf Affrica, ochr yn ochr â phartneriaid yng Nghroes Goch Kenya, Adran Feteorolegol Kenya a'r Awdurdod Monitro Llifogydd a Sychder Cenedlaethol.
Ym mis Medi 2020 ymunais â Phrifysgol Bryste ar brosiect H2020 yr UE DOWN2EARTH. Roedd hwn yn brosiect rhyngddisgyblaethol mawr, yn gweithio i adeiladu systemau gwybodaeth diogelwch dŵr yn GHA. Fel rhan o'r prosiect, lluniais ddull newydd ar gyfer cysylltu'r rhagolygon glaw tymhorol rhanbarthol â model hydroleg tir sych pwrpasol, gan greu cydbwysedd dŵr yn cael ei ail-greu ar ddatrysiad gofodol 1km digynsail. Mae'r system fodelu hon bellach yn cael ei gweithredu'n weithredol fy ICPAC, y providor gwasanaeth hinsawdd mandadol yn y rhanbarth.
Yn y gwaith blaenorol rwyf wedi ystyried:
- gwella'r systemau modelu a ddefnyddir i wneud rhagfynegiadau tymhorol trwy gynrychiolaeth well o ansicrwydd mewn hydroleg pridd
- Datblygu offer delweddu rhagamcanol a systemau modelu ar gyfer y diwydiant ynni gwynt.
- meintioli'r ansicrwydd sy'n gysylltiedig â gwneud rhagolygon sy'n cael eu gyrru gan yr hinsawdd ar gyfer malaria, ar raddfeydd tymhorol a thendant (dyma oedd fy ymchwil PhD)
Ynghyd ag ymchwil wyddonol, rwy'n ymgysylltu â sefydliadau dyngarol fel Canolfan Hinsawdd Cilgant Coch y Groes Goch, lle rwy'n darparu dadansoddiad ac arweiniad a ragwelir i gefnogi datblygiad protocolau gweithredu rhagweledol gan Gymdeithasau Cenedlaethol y Groes Goch.
Addysgu
Rwy'n cyd-arwain y modiwl ôl-raddedig "Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience" lle rydym yn defnyddio ystod o weithgareddau gweithdy rhyngweithiol i archwilio cysyniadau allweddol sydd eu hangen i ymgysylltu'n feirniadol ag ystod o faterion sy'n ymwneud â newid yn yr hinsawdd.
Rwy'n cyd-arwain y drydedd flwyddyn "Grand Challenge" ar y rhaglen "Gwyddor Cynaliadwyedd Amgylcheddol." Mae hwn yn ymchwiliad cryf dan arweiniad myfyrwyr i "Gweithredu Hinsawdd".
Rwy'n cefnogi'r daith maes Daearyddiaeth Ffisegol i Kos, Gwlad Groeg.
Rwy'n dysgu pythefnos ar "Effeithiau Hinsawdd", ar y cwrs trydedd flwyddyn "Newid Hinsawdd Byd-eang".
Meysydd goruchwyliaeth
Rwyf ar gael i oruchwylio, o gwmpas y pynciau canlynol:
Peryglon tywydd a hinsawdd
Systemau rhybudd cynnar a chamau gweithredu rhagweladwy
Rhagweladwyedd y tywydd a'r hinsawdd a gyrwyr amrywioldeb hinsawdd
Goruchwyliaeth gyfredol
Kat Cocking
Myfyriwr ymchwil
Contact Details
MacLeodD1@caerdydd.ac.uk
+44 29225 14696
Y Prif Adeilad, Ystafell 0.16b, Plas y Parc, Caerdydd, CF10 3AT
+44 29225 14696
Y Prif Adeilad, Ystafell 0.16b, Plas y Parc, Caerdydd, CF10 3AT
Themâu ymchwil
Arbenigeddau
- Meteoroleg
- Meteoroleg drofannol
- Peryglon naturiol
- Darogan y Tywydd
- Trychinebau dyngarol, gwrthdaro ac adeiladu heddwch