Dr David Macleod
(he/him)
Lecturer in Climate Risk
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Available for postgraduate supervision
Overview
My research focus is climate risk: understanding weather and climate variability and its impacts. I work on forecast horizons from days to decades ahead to decades ahead.
A key part of my work is evaluation and experimentation with initialised climate models. This supports understanding of the drivers of extreme meteorological events, and the degree to which they can be predicted.
This scientific work forms a cornerstone of my work supporting international humanitarian organisations to use forecasts for anticipatory action.
To communicate key ideas to non-scientific partners (and in my teaching) I also use and design "serious games". These are play-orientated activities designed to interactively explore concepts and build core understanding in an engaging way.
Publication
2024
- Cocking, K. et al. 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 25(12), pp. 1845-1861. (10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1)
- Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150(764), pp. 4550-4566. (10.1002/qj.4829)
- Mwangi, E., MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. and Todd, M. C. 2024. Variability of rainy season onsets over East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 44(10), pp. 3357-3379. (10.1002/joc.8528)
- MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E. W., Michaelides, K. and Singer, M. B. 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51(5), article number: e2023GL105258. (10.1029/2023gl105258)
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. [Online]. Authorea. (10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1) Available at: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14-19 April 2024EGU General Assembly 2024 Abstracts. Copernicus, (10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2897)
2023
- Steinke, J. et al. 2023. Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts. Climate Services 32, article number: 100410. (10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100410)
- Macleod, D. et al. 2023. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making. PLOS Climate 2(3), article number: e0000138. (10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138)
2022
- Mwangi, E. et al. 2022. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development 14(8), pp. 741–756. (10.1080/17565529.2021.1984194)
- Kolstad, E. W. and MacLeod, D. 2022. Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics 59, pp. 1043–1056. (10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6)
- White, C. J. et al. 2022. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), pp. E1448–E1472. (10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1)
- Muktadir, M., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D., Singer, M. and Miralles, D. 2022. Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577)
- Otieno, D. et al. 2022. Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2129)
- Boult, V. L. et al. 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management 35, article number: 100402. (10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2022. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804)
2021
- MacLeod, D., Easton-Calabria, E., de Perez, E. C. and Jaime, C. 2021. Verification of forecasts for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, flood and storm surge over Myanmar and the Philippines. Weather and Climate Extremes 33, article number: 100325. (10.1016/j.wace.2021.100325)
- Singer, M. B. et al. 2021. Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present. Scientific Data 8, article number: 224. (10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9)
- Guigma, K. H., MacLeod, D., Todd, M. and Wang, Y. 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics 57(1-2), pp. 537–556. (10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8)
- Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D. and Demissie, T. D. 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48(14), article number: e2021GL093292. (10.1029/2021GL093292)
- MacLeod, D. A. et al. 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(4), pp. 887–903. (10.1175/JHM-D-20-0211.1)
- de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J. and Black, E. 2021. Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting 36(1), pp. 265–284. (10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1)
- MacLeod, D., Graham, R., O'Reilly, C., Otieno, G. and Todd, M. 2021. Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains. Atmospheric Science Letters 22(2), article number: e1015. (10.1002/asl.1015)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21(1), pp. 261–277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, pp. 261-277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. R. and Todd, M. C. 2021. Playing the long game: anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts. Climate Risk Management 34, article number: 100375. (10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375)
- Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T., Johnson, S. and Palmer, T. 2021. How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19–30 Apr 2021. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928)
2020
- MacLeod, D., Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Graham, R. and Todd, M. 2020. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3533)
2019
- MacLeod, D. and Caminade, C. 2019. The moderate impact of the 2015 el niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts. Journal of Climate 32(22), pp. 7989–8001. (10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0201.1)
- MacLeod, D. 2019. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments. Climate Dynamics 53(7-8), pp. 4505–4520. (10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6)
2018
- Kilavi, M. et al. 2018. Extreme rainfall and flooding over Central Kenya including Nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions. Atmosphere 9(12), article number: 472. (10.3390/atmos9120472)
- Hosking, J. S., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C. R., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. F. and Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters 13(5), article number: 54032. (10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78)
- MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T. and Weisheimer, A. 2018. Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters 19(5), article number: e815. (10.1002/asl.815)
2017
- MacLeod, D., Torralba, V., Davis, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F. 2017. Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?. Meteorological Applications 25(1), pp. 1-10. (10.1002/met.1660)
- White, C. J. et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications 24(3), pp. 315-325. (10.1002/met.1654)
- Leutbecher, M. et al. 2017. Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(707), pp. 2315-2339. (10.1002/qj.3094)
- O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N. and Woollings, T. 2017. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 44(11), pp. 5729-5738. (10.1002/2017GL073736)
- Torralba, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., MacLeod, D., Christel, I. and Davis, M. 2017. Seasonal climate prediction: a new source of information for the management of wind energy resources. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56(5), pp. 1231–1247. (10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0204.1)
- Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A. and Palmer, T. 2017. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(703), pp. 917-926. (10.1002/qj.2976)
2016
- MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(7), pp. 2737–2743. (10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016)
- MacLeod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142(694), pp. 79-90. (10.1002/qj.2631)
2015
- MacLeod, D. A., Jones, A., Di Giuseppe, F., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10(4), article number: 44005. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005)
- Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N. and Weisheimer, A. 2015. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5), pp. 1554-1559. (10.1002/2014GL062829)
2014
- MacLeod, D. A. and Morse, A. P. 2014. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk. Scientific Reports 4, article number: 7264. (10.1038/srep07264)
- Lauderdale, J. M. et al. 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13(1), article number: 310. (10.1186/1475-2875-13-310)
- Caminade, C. et al. 2014. Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11(1), pp. 903-918. (10.3390/ijerph110100903)
2013
- MacLeod, D. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in climate-driven disease risk predictions. PhD Thesis, University of Liverpool.
2012
- MacLeod, D. A., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2012. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts. Environmental Research Letters 7(4), article number: 44012. (10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012)
Articles
- Cocking, K. et al. 2024. Locally defined seasonal rainfall characteristics within the Horn of Africa drylands from rain gauge observations. Journal of Hydrometeorology 25(12), pp. 1845-1861. (10.1175/jhm-d-23-0228.1)
- Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. 2024. Beyond the regional average: Drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 150(764), pp. 4550-4566. (10.1002/qj.4829)
- Mwangi, E., MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. and Todd, M. C. 2024. Variability of rainy season onsets over East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 44(10), pp. 3357-3379. (10.1002/joc.8528)
- MacLeod, D., Kolstad, E. W., Michaelides, K. and Singer, M. B. 2024. Sensitivity of rainfall extremes to unprecedented Indian Ocean Dipole events. Geophysical Research Letters 51(5), article number: e2023GL105258. (10.1029/2023gl105258)
- Steinke, J. et al. 2023. Seasonal seed scenario planning: co-design of a generic framework for matching seed supply and demand using seasonal climate forecasts. Climate Services 32, article number: 100410. (10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100410)
- Macleod, D. et al. 2023. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into water balance forecasts for decision making. PLOS Climate 2(3), article number: e0000138. (10.1371/journal.pclm.0000138)
- Mwangi, E. et al. 2022. Mainstreaming forecast based action into national disaster risk management systems: experience from drought risk management in Kenya. Climate and Development 14(8), pp. 741–756. (10.1080/17565529.2021.1984194)
- Kolstad, E. W. and MacLeod, D. 2022. Lagged oceanic effects on the East African short rains. Climate Dynamics 59, pp. 1043–1056. (10.1007/s00382-022-06176-6)
- White, C. J. et al. 2022. Advances in the application and utility of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictions. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(6), pp. E1448–E1472. (10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0224.1)
- Boult, V. L. et al. 2022. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management 35, article number: 100402. (10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402)
- MacLeod, D., Easton-Calabria, E., de Perez, E. C. and Jaime, C. 2021. Verification of forecasts for extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, flood and storm surge over Myanmar and the Philippines. Weather and Climate Extremes 33, article number: 100325. (10.1016/j.wace.2021.100325)
- Singer, M. B. et al. 2021. Hourly potential evapotranspiration at 0.1˚ resolution for the global land surface from 1981-present. Scientific Data 8, article number: 224. (10.1038/s41597-021-01003-9)
- Guigma, K. H., MacLeod, D., Todd, M. and Wang, Y. 2021. Prediction skill of Sahelian heatwaves out to subseasonal lead times and importance of atmospheric tropical modes of variability. Climate Dynamics 57(1-2), pp. 537–556. (10.1007/s00382-021-05726-8)
- Kolstad, E. W., MacLeod, D. and Demissie, T. D. 2021. Drivers of subseasonal forecast errors of the East African short rains. Geophysical Research Letters 48(14), article number: e2021GL093292. (10.1029/2021GL093292)
- MacLeod, D. A. et al. 2021. Drivers and subseasonal predictability of heavy rainfall in Equatorial East Africa and relationship with flood risk. Journal of Hydrometeorology 22(4), pp. 887–903. (10.1175/JHM-D-20-0211.1)
- de Andrade, F. M., Young, M. P., MacLeod, D., Hirons, L. C., Woolnough, S. J. and Black, E. 2021. Subseasonal precipitation prediction for Africa: forecast evaluation and sources of predictability. Weather and Forecasting 36(1), pp. 265–284. (10.1175/WAF-D-20-0054.1)
- MacLeod, D., Graham, R., O'Reilly, C., Otieno, G. and Todd, M. 2021. Causal pathways linking different flavours of ENSO with the Greater Horn of Africa short rains. Atmospheric Science Letters 22(2), article number: e1015. (10.1002/asl.1015)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness for flooding?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21(1), pp. 261–277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2021. Are Kenya Meteorological Department heavy rainfall advisories useful for forecast-based early action and early preparedness?. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 21, pp. 261-277. (10.5194/nhess-21-261-2021)
- MacLeod, D., Kniveton, D. R. and Todd, M. C. 2021. Playing the long game: anticipatory action based on seasonal forecasts. Climate Risk Management 34, article number: 100375. (10.1016/j.crm.2021.100375)
- MacLeod, D. and Caminade, C. 2019. The moderate impact of the 2015 el niño over East Africa and its representation in seasonal reforecasts. Journal of Climate 32(22), pp. 7989–8001. (10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0201.1)
- MacLeod, D. 2019. Seasonal forecasts of the East African long rains: insight from atmospheric relaxation experiments. Climate Dynamics 53(7-8), pp. 4505–4520. (10.1007/s00382-019-04800-6)
- Kilavi, M. et al. 2018. Extreme rainfall and flooding over Central Kenya including Nairobi city during the long-rains season 2018: causes, predictability, and potential for early warning and actions. Atmosphere 9(12), article number: 472. (10.3390/atmos9120472)
- Hosking, J. S., MacLeod, D., Phillips, T., Holmes, C. R., Watson, P., Shuckburgh, E. F. and Mitchell, D. 2018. Changes in European wind energy generation potential within a 1.5 C warmer world. Environmental Research Letters 13(5), article number: 54032. (10.1088/1748-9326/aabf78)
- MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Palmer, T. and Weisheimer, A. 2018. Flow dependent ensemble spread in seasonal forecasts of the boreal winter extratropics. Atmospheric Science Letters 19(5), article number: e815. (10.1002/asl.815)
- MacLeod, D., Torralba, V., Davis, M. and Doblas-Reyes, F. 2017. Transforming climate model output to forecasts of wind power production: how much resolution is enough?. Meteorological Applications 25(1), pp. 1-10. (10.1002/met.1660)
- White, C. J. et al. 2017. Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. Meteorological Applications 24(3), pp. 315-325. (10.1002/met.1654)
- Leutbecher, M. et al. 2017. Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(707), pp. 2315-2339. (10.1002/qj.3094)
- O'Reilly, C. H., Heatley, J., MacLeod, D., Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T. N., Schaller, N. and Woollings, T. 2017. Variability in seasonal forecast skill of Northern Hemisphere winters over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 44(11), pp. 5729-5738. (10.1002/2017GL073736)
- Torralba, V., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., MacLeod, D., Christel, I. and Davis, M. 2017. Seasonal climate prediction: a new source of information for the management of wind energy resources. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 56(5), pp. 1231–1247. (10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0204.1)
- Weisheimer, A., Schaller, N., O'Reilly, C., MacLeod, D. A. and Palmer, T. 2017. Atmospheric seasonal forecasts of the twentieth century: multi-decadal variability in predictive skill of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their potential value for extreme event attribution. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 143(703), pp. 917-926. (10.1002/qj.2976)
- MacLeod, D., Cloke, H., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20(7), pp. 2737–2743. (10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016)
- MacLeod, D. A., Cloke, H. L., Pappenberger, F. and Weisheimer, A. 2016. Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 142(694), pp. 79-90. (10.1002/qj.2631)
- MacLeod, D. A., Jones, A., Di Giuseppe, F., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2015. Demonstration of successful malaria forecasts for Botswana using an operational seasonal climate model. Environmental Research Letters 10(4), article number: 44005. (10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044005)
- Shi, W., Schaller, N., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T. N. and Weisheimer, A. 2015. Impact of hindcast length on estimates of seasonal climate predictability. Geophysical Research Letters 42(5), pp. 1554-1559. (10.1002/2014GL062829)
- MacLeod, D. A. and Morse, A. P. 2014. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk. Scientific Reports 4, article number: 7264. (10.1038/srep07264)
- Lauderdale, J. M. et al. 2014. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India. Malaria Journal 13(1), article number: 310. (10.1186/1475-2875-13-310)
- Caminade, C. et al. 2014. Rift Valley fever outbreaks in Mauritania and related environmental conditions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11(1), pp. 903-918. (10.3390/ijerph110100903)
- MacLeod, D. A., Caminade, C. and Morse, A. P. 2012. Useful decadal climate prediction at regional scales? A look at the ENSEMBLES stream 2 decadal hindcasts. Environmental Research Letters 7(4), article number: 44012. (10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044012)
Conferences
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2024, Vienna, Austria, 14-19 April 2024EGU General Assembly 2024 Abstracts. Copernicus, (10.5194/egusphere-egu24-2897)
- Muktadir, M., Koppa, A., Claessen, J., MacLeod, D., Singer, M. and Miralles, D. 2022. Links between land cover change and climate in the Horn of Africa. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10577)
- Otieno, D. et al. 2022. Climate predictions in a forecast based action (FbA) pilot within the Greater Horn of Africa; Experiences from ForPAc and Down2Earth projects. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2129)
- MacLeod, D. et al. 2022. Translating seasonal climate forecasts into decision-relevant water security forecasts. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2022, 23–27 May 2022. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2804)
- Weisheimer, A., Decremer, D., MacLeod, D., O'Reilly, C., Stockdale, T., Johnson, S. and Palmer, T. 2021. How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2021, Online, 19–30 Apr 2021. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2928)
- MacLeod, D., Kilavi, M., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Graham, R. and Todd, M. 2020. Subseasonal forecasts for humanitarian decision-making in Kenya: understanding forecast skill and the latest results from the S2S ForPAc real-time pilot study. Presented at: EGU General Assembly 2020, 4–8 May 2020. , (10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3533)
Thesis
- MacLeod, D. 2013. Quantifying uncertainty in climate-driven disease risk predictions. PhD Thesis, University of Liverpool.
Websites
- Antonio, B. et al. 2024. Postprocessing East African rainfall forecasts using a generative machine learning model. [Online]. Authorea. (10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1) Available at: https://doi.org/10.22541/au.170967780.04179996/v1
Research
Since 2017 I have been working on potential for using cutting-edge weather and climate forecasting systems for the development of early warning systems. My research activity has had a strong focus in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), where I worked on the NERC DFiD funded project ForPAc. In this project we supported development of early warning systems for flooding and drought in Kenya and the Greater Horn of Africa, alongside partners in the Kenya Red Cross, Kenya Meteorological Department and the National Flood and Drought Monitoring Authority.
In September 2020 I joined the University of Bristol on the EU H2020 project DOWN2EARTH. This was a large interdisciplinary project, working to build water security information systems in GHA. As part of the project I designed a novel method for linking the regional seasonal rainfall forecasts to a bespoke dryland hydrology model, generating water balance forrecasts at unprecedented 1km spatial resolution. This modelling system is now being operaitonalised my ICPAC, the mandated climate service providor in the region.
In previous work I have looked at:
- improvement of the modelling systems used to make seasonal predictions through better representation of uncertainty in soil hydrology
- developing forecast visualisation tools and modelling systems for the wind energy industry.
- quantifying the uncertainty involved in making climate-driven forecasts for malaria, on seasonal and decadal scales (this was my PhD research)
Along with scientific research, I engage with humanitarian organisations such as the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, where I provide forecast analysis and guidance to support the development of anticipatory action protocols by National Red Cross Societies.
Teaching
I co-lead the postgraduate module "Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience" where we use a range of interactive workshop activities to explore key concepts needed to engage critically with a range of issues related to climate change.
I co-lead the third year "Grand Challenge" on the "Environmental Sustainability Science" program. This is a strongly student-led investigation into "Climate Action".
I support the Physical Geography field trip to Kos, Greece.
I teach two weeks on "Climate Impacts", on the third year course "Global Climate Change".
Supervisions
I am available to supervise, around the following topics:
Weather and climate hazards
Early warning systems and anticipatory action
Predictability of weather and climate and drivers of climate variability
Current supervision
Kat Cocking
Research student
Contact Details
Research themes
Specialisms
- Meteorology
- Tropical meteorology
- Natural hazards
- Weather Forecasting
- Humanitarian disasters, conflict and peacebuilding