Professor Aris Syntetos
BSc, MSc, PhD, PGCert, FIMA

Distinguished Research Professor, DSV Chair

: Available for postgraduate supervision

I am Professor of Decision Science and hold the DSV Chair of Logistics and Manufacturing. I am founder and Director of the joint University-Industry PARC Institute of Manufacturing, Logistics and Inventory (that encompasses Cardiff University's RemakerSpace). I have set up and currently look after the University's strategic partnership with DSV. Before joining Cardiff, I served in the faculties of the University of Salford (Centre for Operational Research and Applied Statistics), and Copenhagen Business School (Otto Monsted Professorship, Department of Operations).

At Cardiff, I research forecasting and uncertainty management for improving inventory, manufacturing, logistics and supply chain decisions. I have been credited with uniting the (formerly siloed) disciplines of forecasting and inventory optimisation, and I am principally known for the Syntetos-Boylan Approximation, a standard forecasting method, and the Syntetos-Boylan-Croston approach to forecast classification. My 2021 book with John Boylan is summarised in this video.

My work reflects collaboration with more than 40 universities and companies around the world, and it has been supported with funds exceeding £5 Million (almost all of which I have secured as Principal Investigator and almost all of which has been awarded to my affiliated University). I have been published in leading academic outlets (such as Decision Sciences, European Journal of Operational Research, Journal of Operations Management, and Production & Operations Management), and I have about 10,000 citations to my work.

I have advised many organisations on inventory forecasting related matters and several methods/ algorithms I have co-developed are being utilised by major software corporations. Over the last few years, I have been working closely with: Accolade Wines, British Telecommunications (BT), Brother International, DSV, the Excelitas group (Qioptiq), Ocado, and the Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) group (through which I am working with Europe's largest retailers). A summary of my recent impact can be found here.

I am Editor in Chief of the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (IMAMAN, Oxford University Press) and Associate Editor of FORESIGHT, the practitioner oriented publication of the International Institute of Forecasters (IIF). I served as Director of the IIF in 2014 - 2022, and I currently serve in the Executive Committee of the International Society for Inventories Research (ISIR).

At Cardiff University, I have received awards for excellence in postgraduate teaching, the 2016 Cardiff University Outstanding Doctoral Supervisor Award, and the 2016 and 2019 Cardiff University Innovation and Impact Award in Business for my work with Panalpina World Transport Ltd. (now DSV) and Qioptiq Ltd., respectively.

2024

Johns, J., Eyers, D., Lupton, R., Syntetos, A. and Robins, J. 2024. Additive Manufacturing and circular economies. In: Emmit, S. and Charef, R. eds. Circular Economy for the Built Environment: Research and Practice. Routledge
Jin, Z., Chen, C., Liu, Q., Syntetos, A. and Liu, Y. 2024. Compact convolutional transformer for bearing remaining useful life prediction. Presented at: IWAR 2023- VII International Workshop on Autonomous Remanufacturing, Caserta, Italy, 18-19 October 2023 Presented at Fera, M. et al. eds.Advances in Remanufacturing. IWAR 2023. Lecture Notes in Mechanical Engineering Cham, Switzerland: Springer pp. 227-238., (10.1007/978-3-031-52649-7_18)
Scarf, P., Syntetos, A. and Teunter, R. 2024. Joint maintenance and spare-parts inventory models: a review and discussion of practical stock-keeping rules. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 35(1), pp. 83-109. (10.1093/imaman/dpad020)
Ford, G., Gosling, J., Naim, M. and Syntetos, A. 2024. Simplifying complexity? On quality decision-making and non-conformance outcomes of megaprojects. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management 71, pp. 5443-5454. (10.1109/TEM.2024.3359821)

2023

Rostami-Tabar, B., Babai, Z. and Syntetos, A. 2023. To aggregate or not to aggregate: Forecasting of finite autocorrelated demand. Journal of the Operational Research Society 74(8), pp. 1840-1859. (10.1080/01605682.2022.2118631)
Wang, S., Syntetos, A. A., Liu, Y., Di Cairano-Gilfedder, C. and Naim, M. M. 2023. Improving automotive garage operations by categorical forecasts using a large number of variables. European Journal of Operational Research 306(2), pp. 893-908. (10.1016/j.ejor.2022.06.062)
Abolghasemi, M., Rostami-Tabar, B. and Syntetos, A. 2023. The value of point of sales information in upstream supply chain forecasting: an empirical investigation. International Journal of Production Research 61(7), pp. 2162-2177. (10.1080/00207543.2022.2063086)

2022

Demir, E., Syntetos, A. and van Woensel, T. 2022. Last mile logistics: Research trends and needs. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 33(4), pp. 549-561. (10.1093/imaman/dpac006)
Petropoulos, F. et al. 2022. Forecasting: theory and practice. International Journal of Forecasting 38(8), pp. 705-871. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001)
Rostami-Tabar, B., Ali, M. M., Hong, T., Hyndman, R. J., Porter, M. D. and Syntetos, A. 2022. Forecasting for social good. International Journal of Forecasting 38(3), pp. 1245-1257. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.010)
Lin, J., Zhou, L., Spiegler, V., Naim, M. and Syntetos, A. 2022. Push or Pull? The impact of ordering policy choice on the dynamics of a hybrid closed-loop supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research 300(1), pp. 282-295. (10.1016/j.ejor.2021.10.031)
Goltsos, T. E., Syntetos, A. A., Glock, C. H. and Ioannou, G. 2022. Inventory - forecasting: mind the gap. European Journal of Operational Research 299(2), pp. 397-419. (10.1016/j.ejor.2021.07.040)
Babai, Z., Dai, Y., Li, Q., Syntetos, A. and Wang, X. 2022. Forecasting of lead-time demand variance: implications for safety stock calculations. European Journal of Operational Research 296(3), pp. 846-861. (10.1016/j.ejor.2021.04.017)
Best, J., Glock, C. H., Grosse, E. H., Rekik, Y. and Syntetos, A. 2022. On the causes of positive inventory discrepancies in retail stores. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management 52(5/6), pp. 414-430. (10.1108/IJPDLM-07-2021-0291)

2021

Prak, D., Teunter, R., Babai, M. Z., Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. 2021. Robust compound Poisson parameter estimation for inventory control. Omega 104, article number: 102481. (10.1016/j.omega.2021.102481)
Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. 2021. Intermittent demand forcasting: Context, methods and applications. Wiley.
Ponte, B., Cannella, S., Dominguez, R., Naim, M. and Syntetos, A. 2021. Quality grading of returns and the dynamics of remanufacturing. International Journal of Production Economics 236, article number: 108129. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2021.108129)
Babai, M. Z., Chen, H., Syntetos, A. A. and Lengu, D. 2021. A compound-Poisson Bayesian approach for spare parts inventory forecasting. International Journal of Production Economics 232, article number: 107954. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2020.107954)
Ren, X., Watson, D., Syntetos, A. and Eyers, D. 2021. Global or local? Insights from 10 companies into the long-term impact of COVID-19 on global supply chains. DSV. Available at: https://docs.dsv.com/group/corporate-marketing-and-communication/global-or-local-covid-19/

2020

Chen, C., Liu, Y., Wang, S., Di Cairano-Gilfedder, C., Sun, X., Titmus, S. and Syntetos, A. A. 2020. Predictive maintenance using cox proportional hazard deep learning. Advanced Engineering Informatics 44, article number: 101054. (10.1016/j.aei.2020.101054)
Ponte, B., Naim, M. and Syntetos, A. 2020. The effect of returns volume uncertainty on the dynamic performance of closed-loop supply chains. Journal of Remanufacturing 10, pp. 1-14. (10.1007/s13243-019-00070-x)

2019

Goltsos, T. E., Ponte, B., Wang, S., Liu, Y., Naim, M. M. and Syntetos, A. A. 2019. The boomerang returns? Accounting for the impact of uncertainties on the dynamics of remanufacturing systems. International Journal of Production Research 57(23), pp. 7361-7394. (10.1080/00207543.2018.1510191)
Hedenstierna, C. P. T., Disney, S. M., Eyers, D. R., Holmstrom, J., Syntetos, A. A. and Wang, X. 2019. Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations. Journal of Operations Management 65(8), pp. 753-773. (10.1002/joom.1014)
Rekik, Y., Syntetos, A. and Glock, C. 2019. Modelling (and learning from) inventory inaccuracies in e-retailing/B2B contexts. Decision Sciences 50(6), pp. 1184-1223. (10.1111/deci.12367)
Rekik, Y., Syntetos, A. A. and Glock, C. H. 2019. Measuring the sales impact of improving inventory records: How improving the accuracy of inventory records can grow sales by 4-8%. Efficient Consumer Response (ECR). Available at: https://www.ecrloss.com/research/grow-sales-by-improving-inventory-records
Ponte, B., Naim, M. M. and Syntetos, A. A. 2019. The value of regulating returns for enhancing the dynamic behaviour of hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing systems. European Journal of Operational Research 278(2), pp. 629-645. (10.1016/j.ejor.2019.04.019)
Goltsos, T. E., Syntetos, A. A. and van der Laan, E. 2019. Forecasting for remanufacturing: the effects of serialization. Journal of Operations Management 65(5), pp. 447-467. (10.1002/joom.1031)
Demir, E., Huckle, K., Syntetos, A., Lahy, A. and Wilson, M. 2019. Vehicle routing problem: Past and future. In: Wells, P. ed. Contemporary Operations and Logistics: Achieving Excellence in Turbulent Times. Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 97-117., (10.1007/978-3-030-14493-7_7)
Van der Auweraer, S., Boute, R. N. and Syntetos, A. 2019. Forecasting spare part demand with installed base information: A review. International Journal of Forecasting 35(1), pp. 181-196. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.002)

2018

Alamri, A. A. and Syntetos, A. A. 2018. Beyond LIFO and FIFO: Exploring an Allocation-In-Fraction-Out (AIFO) policy in a two-warehouse inventory model. International Journal of Production Economics 206, pp. 33-45. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2018.09.025)
Van Foreest, N. D., Teunter, R. H. and Syntetos, A. 2018. Base-stock policies with reservations. Omega 81, pp. 48-56. (10.1016/j.omega.2017.09.008)
Teunter, R. H., Babai, M. Z., Bokhorst, J. A. and Syntetos, A. A. 2018. Revisiting the value of information sharing in two-stage supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research 270(3), pp. 1044-1052. (10.1016/j.ejor.2018.04.040)
Demir, E., Abouarghoub, W. and Syntetos, A. 2018. Modelling the delivery slots for the last mile delivery: Costs and emissions. Presented at: The 23rd International Symposium on Logistics (ISL 2018), Bali, Indonesia, 8-11 July 2018.
Wang, S., Liu, Y., Cairano-Gilfedder, C. D., Titmus, S., Naim, M. and Syntetos, A. 2018. Reliability analysis for automobile engines: conditional inference trees. Procedia CIRP 72, pp. 1392-1397. (10.1016/j.procir.2018.03.065)
Lahy, A., Li, A. Q., Found, P., Syntetos, A., Wilson, M. and Ayiomamitou, N. 2018. Developing a product-service system through a productisation strategy: a case from the 3PL industry. International Journal of Production Research 56(6), pp. 2233-2249. (10.1080/00207543.2017.1367861)
Chen, C., Liu, Y., Sun, X., Wang, S., Di Cairano-Gilfedder, C., Titmus, S. and Syntetos, A. 2018. Reliability analysis using deep learning. Presented at: ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, Quebec City, Canada, 26-29 August 2018ASME 2018 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference Volume 1B: 38th Computers and Information in Engineering Conference Quebec City, Quebec, Canada, August 26–29, 2018. ASME pp. V01BT02A040., (10.1115/DETC2018-86172)

2017

Zahedi-Hosseini, F., Scarf, P. and Syntetos, A. 2017. Joint optimisation of inspection maintenance and spare parts provisioning: a comparative study of inventory policies using simulation and survey data. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 168, pp. 306-316. (10.1016/j.ress.2017.03.007)
Prak, D., Saccani, N., Syntetos, A., Teunter, R. and Visintin, F. 2017. The Repair Kit Problem with positive replenishment lead times and fixed ordering costs. European Journal of Operational Research 261(3), pp. 893-902. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.02.019)
Rekik, Y., Glock, C. H. and Syntetos, A. A. 2017. Enriching demand forecasts with managerial information to improve inventory replenishment decisions: exploiting judgment and fostering learning. European Journal of Operational Research 261(1), pp. 182-194. (10.1016/j.ejor.2017.02.001)
Ali, M. M., Babai, M. Z., Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. A. 2017. Supply chain forecasting when information is not shared. European Journal of Operational Research 260(3), pp. 984-994. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.11.046)
Teunter, R., Syntetos, A. A. and Babai, M. 2017. Stock keeping unit fill rate specification. European Journal of Operational Research 259(3), pp. 917-925. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.11.017)
Prak, D., Teunter, R. and Syntetos, A. 2017. On the calculation of safety stocks when demand is forecasted. European Journal of Operational Research 256(2), pp. 454-461. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.035)

2016

Babai, M. Z., Boylan, J. E., Syntetos, A. and Ali, M. M. 2016. Reduction of the value of information sharing as demand becomes strongly auto-correlated. International Journal of Production Economics 181(A), pp. 130-135. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.05.005)
Alamri, A. A., Harris, I. and Syntetos, A. A. 2016. Efficient inventory control for imperfect quality items. European Journal of Operational Research 254(1), pp. 92-104. (10.1016/j.ejor.2016.03.058)
Syntetos, A., Babai, Z., Boylan, J., Kolassa, S. and Nikolopoulos, K. 2016. Supply chain forecasting: theory, practice, their gap and the future. European Journal of Operational Research 252(1), pp. 1-26. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.11.010)
Syntetos, A. A., Kholidasari, I. and Naim, M. M. 2016. The effects of integrating management judgement into OUT levels: in or out of context?. European Journal of Operational Research 249(3), pp. 853-863. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.021)
Syntetos, A. A., Teunter, R. H., Babai, M. Z. and Transchel, S. 2016. On the benefits of delayed ordering. European Journal of Operational Research 248(3), pp. 963-970. (10.1016/j.ejor.2015.08.003)
Petropoulos, F., Wang, X., Disney, S. M. and Syntetos, A. 2016. The inventory performance of forecasting methods: a reanalysis of the M3-competition monthly industry data. Presented at: Logistics and Operations Management Section Annual Conference, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Wales, UK, 15 January 2016.

2015

Rostami-Tabar, B., Babai, M. Z., Ducq, Y. and Syntetos, A. 2015. Non-stationary demand forecasting by cross-sectional aggregation. International Journal of Production Economics 170(Part A), pp. 297-309. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.10.001)
Rekik, Y., Syntetos, A. and Jemai, Z. 2015. An e-retailing supply chain subject to inventory inaccuracies. International Journal of Production Economics 167, pp. 139-155. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2015.04.011)
Syntetos, A., Zied Babai, M. and Gardner, E. S. 2015. Forecasting intermittent inventory demands: simple parametric methods vs. bootstrapping. Journal of Business Research 68(8), pp. 1746-1752. (10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.034)
Syntetos, A., Babai, M. Z. and Luo, S. 2015. Forecasting of compound Erlang demand. Journal of the Operational Research Society 66, pp. 2061-2074. (10.1057/jors.2015.27)
Boylan, J. E., Goodwin, P., Mohammadipour, M. and Syntetos, A. 2015. Reproducibility in forecasting research. International Journal of Forecasting 31(1), pp. 79-90. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.05.008)

2014

Zied Babai, M., Syntetos, A. and Teunter, R. 2014. Intermittent demand forecasting: An empirical study on accuracy and the risk of obsolescence. International Journal of Production Economics 157, pp. 212-219. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2014.08.019)
Rostami-Tabar, B., Babai, M. Z., Syntetos, A. and Ducq, Y. 2014. A note on the forecast performance of temporal aggregation. Naval Research Logistics 61(7), pp. 489-500. (10.1002/nav.21598)
Lengu, D., Syntetos, A. and Babai, M. Z. 2014. Spare parts management: Linking distributional assumptions to demand classification. European Journal of Operational Research 235(3), pp. 624-635. (10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.043)
Boylan, J. E., Chen, H., Mohammadipour, M. and Syntetos, A. 2014. Formation of seasonal groups and application of seasonal indices. Journal of the Operational Research Society 65, pp. 227-241. (10.1057/jors.2012.126)
Harris, I., Sanchez Rodrigues, V. A., Farahani, R. Z. and Syntetos, A. 2014. Horizontal logistics collaboration in the retail sector: myth or reality?. Presented at: LRN Annual Conference and PhD Workshop 2014, Huddersfield, England, 3-5 September 2014.
Sanchez Rodrigues, V. A., Harris, I., Mason, R. J. and Syntetos, A. 2014. A horizontal logistics collaboration framework from a holistic supply chain perspective. Presented at: 19th International Working Seminar on Production Economics, Innsbruck, Austria, 24-28 February 2014.

2013

Rostami-Tabar, B., Babai, M. Z., Syntetos, A. and Ducq, Y. 2013. Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation. Naval Research Logistics 60(6), pp. 479-498. (10.1002/nav.21546)
Heinecke, G., Syntetos, A. and Wang, W. 2013. Forecasting-based SKU classification. International Journal of Production Economics 143(2), pp. 455-462. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2011.11.020)
Bacchetti, A., Plebani, F., Saccani, N. and Syntetos, A. 2013. Empirically-driven hierarchical classification of stock keeping units. International Journal of Production Economics 143(2), pp. 263-274. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2012.06.010)
Babai, M. Z., Ali, M. M., Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. 2013. Forecasting and inventory performance in a two-stage supply chain with ARIMA(0,1,1) demand: Theory and empirical analysis. International Journal of Production Economics 143(2), pp. 463-471. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2011.09.004)
Mason, R. J., Sanchez Rodrigues, V. A., Harris, I. and Syntetos, A. 2013. Evaluating the feasibility of horizontal coordination in horizontal collaboration in international logistics networks: a grocery retail perspective. Presented at: International Symposium on Logistics, Vienna, Austria, 7-10 July 2013.

2012

Ali, M. M., Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. 2012. Forecast errors and inventory performance under forecast information sharing. International Journal of Forecasting 28(4), pp. 830-841. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.08.003)
Syntetos, A., Babai, M. Z. and Altay, N. 2012. On the demand distributions of spare parts. International Journal of Production Research 50(8), pp. 2101-2117. (10.1080/00207543.2011.562561)

2011

Teunter, R. H., Syntetos, A. and Zied Babai, M. 2011. Intermittent demand: Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence. European Journal of Operational Research 214(3), pp. 606-615. (10.1016/j.ejor.2011.05.018)
Wang, W. and Syntetos, A. 2011. Spare parts demand: Linking forecasting to equipment maintenance. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review 47(6), pp. 1194-1209. (10.1016/j.tre.2011.04.008)
Strijbosch, L. W., Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. E. and Janssen, E. 2011. On the interaction between forecasting and stock control: The case of non-stationary demand. International Journal of Production Economics 133(1), pp. 470-480. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2009.10.032)
Syntetos, A., Georgantzas, N. C., Boylan, J. E. and Dangerfield, B. C. 2011. Judgement and supply chain dynamics. Journal of the Operational Research Society 62, pp. 1138-1158. (10.1057/jors.2010.56)

2010

Syntetos, A. and Boylan, J. E. 2010. On the variance of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Production Economics 128(2), pp. 546-555. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.07.005)
Syntetos, A., Babai, M. Z., Davies, J. and Stephenson, D. 2010. Forecasting and stock control: A study in a wholesaling context. International Journal of Production Economics 127(1), pp. 103-111. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.05.001)
Teunter, R. H., Syntetos, A. and Babai, M. Z. 2010. Determining order-up-to levels under periodic review for compound binomial (intermittent) demand. European Journal of Operational Research 203(3), pp. 619-624. (10.1016/j.ejor.2009.09.013)
Teunter, R. H., Babai, M. Z. and Syntetos, A. 2010. ABC classification: service levels and inventory costs. Production and Operations Management 19(3), pp. 343-352. (10.1111/j.1937-5956.2009.01098.x)
Babai, M. Z., Syntetos, A. and Teunter, R. 2010. On the empirical performance of (T,s,S) heuristics. European Journal of Operational Research 202(2), pp. 466-472. (10.1016/j.ejor.2009.05.030)
Syntetos, A., Nikolopoulos, K. and Boylan, J. E. 2010. Judging the judges through accuracy-implication metrics: the case of inventory forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 26(1), pp. 134-143. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.016)
Nikolopoulos, K., Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. E., Petropoulos, F. and Assimakopoulos, V. 2010. An aggregate-disaggregate intermittent demand approach (ADIDA) to forecasting: an empirical proposition and analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society 62(3), pp. 544-554. (10.1057/jors.2010.32)
Boylan, J. E. and Syntetos, A. 2010. Spare parts management: A review of forecasting research and extensions. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 21(3), pp. 227-237. (10.1093/imaman/dpp016)
Martin, H., Syntetos, A., Parodi, A., Polychronakis, Y. E. and Pintelon, L. 2010. Integrating the spare parts supply chain: An inter-disciplinary account. Journal of Manufacturing Technology Management 21(2), pp. 226-245. (10.1108/17410381011014387)

2009

Syntetos, A., Nikolopoulos, K., Boylan, J. E., Fildes, R. and Goodwin, P. 2009. The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts. International Journal of Production Economics 118(1), pp. 72-81. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2008.08.011)
Babaï, M. Z., Syntetos, A., Dallery, Y. and Nikolopoulos, K. 2009. Dynamic re-order point inventory control with lead-time uncertainty: Analysis and empirical investigation. International Journal of Production Research 47(9), pp. 2461-2483. (10.1080/00207540701666824)
Syntetos, A., Keyes, M. and Babai, M. Z. 2009. Demand categorisation in a European spare parts logistics network. International Journal of Operations & Production Management 29(3), pp. 292-316. (10.1108/01443570910939005)
Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. E. and Disney, S. M. 2009. Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60, pp. S149-s160. (10.1057/jors.2008.173)
Syntetos, A., Babai, M. Z., Dallery, Y. and Teunter, R. 2009. Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis. Journal of the Operational Research Society 60(5), pp. 611-618. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602593)

2008

Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Crone, S. F. and Syntetos, A. 2008. Forecasting and operational research: a review. Journal of the Operational Research Society 59(9), pp. 1150-1172. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602597)
Syntetos, A. and Boylan, J. E. 2008. Demand forecasting adjustments for service-level achievement. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics 19(2), pp. 175-192. (10.1093/imaman/dpm034)
Boylan, J. E., Syntetos, A. and Karakostas, G. E. 2008. Classification for forecasting and stock control: a case study. Journal of the Operational Research Society 59(4), pp. 473-481. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602312)
Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. E. and Disney, S. M. 2008. Inventory, forecasting and planning: a 50 year review. Presented at: 50th Annual Conference of the Operational Research Society (OR 50) 2008, York, UK, 9-11 September 2008.

2007

Boylan, J. and Syntetos, A. 2007. The accuracy of a Modified Croston procedure. International Journal of Production Economics 107(2), pp. 511-517. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.10.005)
Polychronakis, Y. E. and Syntetos, A. 2007. 'Soft' supplier management related issues: An empirical investigation. International Journal of Production Economics 106(2), pp. 431-449. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2006.07.008)

2006

Syntetos, A. and Boylan, J. E. 2006. On the stock control performance of intermittent demand estimators. International Journal of Production Economics 103(1), pp. 36-47. (10.1016/j.ijpe.2005.04.004)

2005

Syntetos, A. and Boylan, J. E. 2005. The accuracy of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Forecasting 21(2), pp. 303-314. (10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.10.001)

2004

Syntetos, A., Boylan, J. E. and Croston, J. D. 2004. On the categorization of demand patterns. Journal of the Operational Research Society 56(5), pp. 495-503. (10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601841)

2001

Syntetos, A. and Boylan, J. E. 2001. On the bias of intermittent demand estimates. International Journal of Production Economics 71(1-3), pp. 457-466. (10.1016/S0925-5273(00)00143-2)

Research interests

I work in the area of Decision Science, and I am interested in developing theoretically rigorous yet practically viable and effective inventory and/or forecasting algorithms and business models.

I have worked, and continue to do so, on intermittent demand inventory forecasting. This work is particularly relevant to spare parts (and after sales) supply chains. I am also working on inventory forecasting in the context of closed loop supply chains (circular economy) and additive manufacturing (3DP in particular) enabled supply chains. My work has always been underlined not only by financial but also environmental, and more recently social, concerns. I have always been pre-occupied with reducing inventory obsolescence, and more recently, with opportunities to stop planned obsolescence altogether.

My current research interests are around the following areas:

Statistical and judgmental supply chain forecasting
Inventory, and inventory inaccuracies, mathematical modelling and management
Analytical and conceptual unification of Inventory-Forecasting
Inventory Forecasting in: i) spare parts, ii) after sales, iii) retail, iv) close loop, v) 3DP-enabled supply chains
Inventory (and/or) Forecasting for environmental sustainability: obsolescence reduction or elimination
Inventory (and/or) Forecasting for social good

Funded research and knoweldge transfer projects

[Projects exclusively/directly funded from Industry and small grants (below £20K) are not included here]

Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC): EP/D062942/1, 2006-08 (£192,950), ‘On the Development of Theory-Informed Operationalised Definitions of Demand Patterns’, First Grant Scheme. Principal/sole investigator.
Technology Strategy Board (TSB): Knowledge Transfer Partnership with Valves Instruments Plus (VIP Ltd.) - KTP 6202, 2006-08 (£166,839), Subject Area: ‘Inventory Management and IT in a Wholesaling Environment’. Co-Investigator (PI: John Davies).
EPSRC: EP/F012632/1, 2007-08 (£62,144), ‘Forecasting and Inventory Management: Bridging the Gap’. Principal Investigator (CI: John Boylan).
EPSRC: EP/G006075/1, 2009-10 (£72,190), ‘Commercialisation of an inventory management solution for intermittent demand items’. Principal/sole investigator.
EPSRC: EP/G070369/1, 2009 (£20,000), ‘Cognitive Mapping, System Dynamics and the Bullwhip Effect’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Brian Dangerfield, John Boylan).
Innovate UK: Knowledge Transfer Partnership with Killgerm Ltd. - KTP ELCT01, 2010-2012 (£170,413), Inter-disciplinary project on the ‘Development of Research Capacity in the Pest Management Industry’. Co-Investigator (PI: Gai Murphy).
EPSRC: EP/G003858/1, 2009-2013 (£266,595), ‘Using the Grouping and Shrinkage Approaches to Forecasting Sub-Aggregate Level Seasonal Demand’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Huijing Chen, John Boylan).
EPSRC & Innovate UK: Knowledge Transfer Partnership with Panalpina World Transport Ltd. - KTP 9208, 2013-2015 (£133,998), Subject area: ‘Statistical Forecasting and Inventory Control in a 3PL Context’. Principal/Sole Investigator.
EPSRC & Innovate UK: Double Knowledge Transfer Partnership with Panalpina World Transport Ltd. - KTP 10165, 2016-2018 (£285,967), Subject area: ‘Traditional VS. 3D Printing Enabled Inventory Control’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Rossi Setchi, Frank Lacan, Xun Wang).
EPSRC & Welsh Government: Knowledge Transfer Partnership with Qioptiq Ltd. - KTP 10171, 2016-2018 (£160,281), Subject area: ‘Returns Forecasting in a Remanufacturing / Closed Loop Context’. Principal Investigator (CI: Mohamed Naim).
EPSRC: EP/P008925/1, 2017-2019 (£711,899), ‘Resilient Remanufacturing Networks: Forecasting, Informatics and Holons’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Mohamed Naim, Ying Liu).
EPSRC & Innovate UK: Knowledge Transfer Partnership with OCADO - KTP 10165, 2019-2021 (£202,660), Subject area: ‘Transportation /Routing Optimisation’. Academic Advisor (PI: Emrah Demir).
Welsh Government: Cardiff University Centre for Repair, Remake, Remanufacture and Reuse, 2020a (£488,040). Principal Investigator (CI: Dan Eyers).
Welsh Government: Cardiff University Centre for Repair, Remake, Remanufacture and Reuse, 2020b (£95,000), Principal Investigator (CI: Dan Eyers).
Welsh Government: Smart Expertise project 82505, 2021 (£324,683), ‘Enabling Repurposing - Product Transformation and Connected Collaboration’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Dan Eyers, Thanos Goltsos, Andy Davies).
ESRC: Collaborative DTP PhD studentship, 2022-2026 (£155,048), ‘Forecasting Improvements for Better Reproductive Health and Family Planning Operations in Global Health Supply Chains’. With the support of the Unites States Agency for International Development (USAID). 2^nd Supervisor (with Bahman Rostami-Tabar and Federico Liberatore).
Welsh Government: Expansion of (RemakerSpace) AM capabilities, 2022 (£67,670), ‘Circular Hybrid Manufacturing (CHM) of Sustainable Powders for Powder-Bed-Fusion Additive Manufacturing (AM) Processes via Recycling of Machining Scraps.’ Co-Investigator (PI: Debajyoti Bhaduri, School of Engineering, Cardiff University).
Welsh Government: Smart Expertise project, 2024 (£79,543), ‘RemakerSpace expansion’. Principal Investigator (CIs: Dan Eyers, Rebecca Travers, Franck Lacan).

Teaching - Cardiff University

My time is devoted 100% to research (and knowledge transfer).

Previously, in Cardiff Business School, I taught Logistics Modelling, Operations Analytics and Operations Management at the MSc programmes of the Logistics and Operations Management (LOM) Section. I have contributed considerably to curriculum development (e.g. Operations Analytics module) and have received awards for excellence in postgraduate teaching.

Teaching - Internationally

In addition to the UK, I have taught internationally in China, Colombia, Denmark, France, Greece, Italy and Latvia. All courses were in the areas of Operations Management, Operational Research (Management Science) and Applied Statistics.

Qualifications

2005 Postgraduate Certificate in Learning and Teaching in Higher Education, University of Salford, UK
2001-2003 Military Service – Greek National
2001 PhD in Operational Research, Brunel University, UK (academic scholarship and industrial sponsorship)
1996 MSc in Quality Management, Stirling University, UK
1995 Proficiency in Italian Language and Literature, Universita di Perugia, Italy
1994 Postgraduate Diploma in Quality and Statistical Control, EU, Socrates Initiative (Athens, Brussels, Nice) (academic scholarship)
1994 Proficiency in English Language and Literature, University of Cambridge, UK
1993 BSc (4 years) in Business Administration, University of Piraeus (formerly the Graduate School of Industrial Studies), Athens, Greece (scholarship granted through National Public University entry examinations).

Editorial work

Editor in Chief (2022 - ) – IMA Journal of Management Mathematics – IMAMAN (Oxford University Press, OUP)
Co-Editor in Chief (2009 - 2022) – IMAMAN (OUP)
Associate Editor (2006 - 2020) – Journal of the Operational Research Society – JORS (Taylor Francis)
Associate Editor (2013 - ) – FORESIGHT – International Institute of Forecasters (practitioner oriented publication)
Associate Editor (2007 - 2009) – IMAMAN (OUP)
Guest co-editor: IMAMAN. Special issue on ‘Forecasting for Inventory Management’, issue 2, 2008
Guest co-editor: JORS. Special issue on ‘Supply Chain Forecasting and Planning’, issue 3, 2011
Co-Editor (with D. Petrovic) of the Keynotes and Short Papers Handbook, The 53rd Conference of the UK Operational Research Society (OR 53), 2011, ISBN 0- 903440-49-0.
Guest co-editor: OMEGA. Special issue on ‘Forecasting in Management Science’, issue 6, 2012
Guest co-editor: OR INSIGHT. Special issue on Keynote papers from the OR 53, issue 3, 2012
Guest co-editor: IMAMAN. Special issue on Keynote papers from the OR 53, issue 4, 2013.
Guest co-editor: International Journal of Production Economics (IJPE). Special Issue on papers from the 19th International Symposium on Inventories Research (ISIR, 2016), volume 209, 2019.
Guest co-editor: IJPE. Special Issue on papers from the 20th International Symposium on Inventories Research (ISIR, 2018), 2020.
Guest co-editor: IJPE. Special Issue on papers from the 21st International Symposium on Inventories Research (ISIR, 2022), ongoing.

Professional memberships

Institute of Mathematics and its Applications (IMA, Fellow)
International Institute of Forecasters (IIF, Board of Directors, Elected Director, 2014-2022)
International Society for Inventory Research (ISIR, Executive Committee, Elected Chair: Inventory Forecasting Section, 2016-)
Committee of Professors In Operational Research (COPIOR, Elected Secretary, 2017-2021)
Operational Research Society (ORS, previously served (elected) in the General Council, 2011-2014)
Production & Operations Management Society (POMS)
Institute for Operations Research & Management Sciences (INFORMS)

I welcome PhD applications in any of the core areas of interest to me:

Statistical or judgmental supply chain forecasting
Inventory, and inventory inaccuracies, mathematical modelling and management
Analytical and conceptual unification of Inventory-Forecasting
Inventory Forecasting in: i) spare parts, ii) after sales, iii) retail, iv) close loop, or v) 3DP-enabled supply chains
Inventory (and/or) Forecasting for environmental sustainability: obsolescence reduction or elimination
Inventory (and/or) Forecasting for social good

Current supervision

Gavin Ford

Research student

Zhongtian Jin

Research student

Contact Details

SyntetosA@cardiff.ac.uk
+44 29208 76572
Aberconway Building, Room C21, Colum Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF10 3EU
sbarc|spark, Room 00.27, Maindy Road, Cathays, Cardiff, CF24 4HQ

Research themes

Specialisms

Economic models and forecasting
Business analytics
Operations research
Production and operations management
Planning and decision making

CEO of DSV Solutions visits Cardiff University to build upon strategic partnership

Professor Aris Syntetos BSc, MSc, PhD, PGCert, FIMA

Overview

Publication