Professor Matthew Wilkinson

Publication

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Research

Matthew Wilkinson develops the evidence, analytical frameworks and digital tools that help governments, courts and correctional systems make high-stakes decisions about radicalisation, institutional risk and rehabilitation. His work combines conceptual rigour with empirical analysis, translating research into practical interventions, predictive models and machine-learning pipelines.

As an Expert Witness in 37 terrorism and hate-crime cases, including the Manchester Arena Inquiry, Matthew has helped shape how UK courts identify and assess extremism. His analysis in S. Begg v BBC (2016) established a ten-point definition of Islamist Extremism that remains the only widely accepted legal definition of the term.

This work revealed significant gaps in correctional policy and led Matthew to direct the largest independent comparative study of Islam in prison, conducted across ten institutions in England, Switzerland and France. Its findings provided the evidence base for PRIMO, the whole-prison rehabilitation programme he founded at Cardiff University, which is now being developed as a scalable digital platform for correctional systems internationally.

His current research, commissioned by Cambridge University Press, uses large-scale data to map interactions between Mainstream, Polarised and Extremist Worldviews at societal trigger moments, with the aim of improving the prediction and prevention of radicalisation.

Biography

I use data analytics to identify the worldviews that shape judgement, risk and performance. My work focuses on understanding why people and institutions make the decisions they do, evaluating the risks that flow from those decisions, and identifying and implementing the cultural changes that can produce more effective outcomes.

I have applied this approach across complex, high-stakes environments. In prisons, I examine how worldview and institutional culture shape behaviour and rehabilitation, and design and test programmes to improve outcomes. In education, I explore how curriculum and culture shape individual choices, character and long-term outcomes. In court, I clarify the meaning and significance of complex evidence so that juries can assess risk and reach fair, informed verdicts.

Earlier in my career, I won a scholarship to Trinity College, University of Cambridge, before spending a decade teaching in London secondary schools, where I developed my understanding of what actually changes minds and behaviour. My ESRC-funded doctoral research at King’s College London, developed with the philosopher Roy Bhaskar, produced Islamic Critical Realism—an original framework for analysing religious belief rationally and testing its effects inside secular institutions. Published as A Fresh Look at Islam in a Multi-faith World, the work won the Cheryl Frank Memorial Prize.

I have since taken that framework into high-stakes arenas. As an Expert Witness in 37 terrorism and hate-crime cases—including the Manchester Arena Inquiry—my evidence has contributed to how UK courts define and adjudicate extremism. That courtroom work exposed a major gap in correctional knowledge, which I addressed by directing the largest comparative study of Islam in European prisons, spanning ten institutions in England, France and Switzerland. The findings, published as Islam in Prison, became the evidence base for PRIMO, the whole-prison rehabilitation programme.

I have designed training for the Parole Board of England and Wales and the Judicial College, and I now partner with the Maine Department of Corrections to build correctional education, analytics and digital tools that scale evidence-based rehabilitation across correctional systems internationally.

My current project, commissioned by Cambridge University Press, uses large-scale data analysis to map how Mainstream, Polarised and Extremist Worldviews collide at societal trigger moments—research aimed at strengthening a resilient, democratic mainstream.

Honours and awards

2021-2028 - Awarded £2,000,000 grant by the Dawes Trust as Principal Investigator of Prison-based Interventions for Muslim Offenders (PRIMO).

2017-2021 - Awarded £840,000 grant by the Dawes Trust as Principal Investigator of Understanding Conversion to Islam in Prison (UCIP).

2015-2017 Awarded £190,000 grant by the charity Curriculum for Cohesion for a Senior Research Fellowship at SOAS, University of London.

2014 - Awarded Cheryl Frank Memorial Prize for, A Fresh Look at Islam in a Multi-faith World: a philosophy for success through education.

2011-2015 - Awarded £276,000 grant by the charity Curriculum for Cohesion.

Professional memberships

Editorial Board, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism (Taylor & Francis).

Member of the Expert Witness Institute.

Member of the European Society of Criminology.

Supervisions

Current supervision

Md Kamruzzaman Bhuiyan